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Adam C
Lv 5
Adam C asked in EnvironmentGlobal Warming · 1 decade ago

Are Louisiana AGW sceptics going about business as normal tomorrow?

Gustav is predicted to hit New Orleans - based on AGW logic, shouldn't people stay?

Life is based on predicting future outcomes (note the plural). It is one of the things that distinguishes humans from animals - the ability to make predictions beyond the immediate future and to make appropriate decisions based not just on the likelihood of the prediction but on the impact of the predicted event.

For example:

If we are 99% certain it will rain tomorrow, we may still not pack an umbrella because getting wet isn't such a big deal.

If we are 25% sure that company X is going to go bankrupt next week, we will probably sell our shares today.

If there is a 1 in 200 chance that the ice is not thick enough, we tell our kids not to skate on the lake.

Scientists predict (at the time of me writing) less than a 90% chance that Gustav will hit New Orleans and yet the Governor of Louisiana has declared an emergency, Britons are told to leave the city and the mayor has imposed a curfew:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/08/27/gusta...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7590904.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7590426.stm

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/08/27/gusta...

Scientists - not Al Gore, et al - from around the world - not just the USA - have said there is a 90% chance that humans are causing GW that will drastically affect all life on this planet and potentially (yes, low likelihood but high impact) cause the death of billions (note, not millions).

So, are there any AGW sceptics out there in New Orleans & Louisiana? Are you going to go about your normal business - no evacuation, no shattering of windows, no emergency rations, drive off calmly to work as usual... after all, it's just a prediction...

Update:

eric c - "Skeptics do not believe that there is a 90% or even a high probability that humans activity will cause catastrophic warming".

Precisely my point.

There are some people who choose not to believe experts - even if those experts are in the majority, etc, etc.

So I am asking where are the people who choose not to believe experts re hurricane Gustav?

It seems more likely to me that some people are more likely to ignore the experts when they aren't the ones going to get hurt (the developing world will bear the brunt of AGW at least in the first instance)?

In other words, it is selfishness that drives the choice rather than any real counter-argument or alternate theories.

Most sceptics now seem to accept that GW is happening just not caused by man - I am waiting to see any sort of model or calculation that describes this warming without taking into account human activity.

What can we expect the future climate to be if AGW is not happening?

11 Answers

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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    I wonder how many hurricanes are going to hit New Orleans like bowling balls before conservatives notice that something is up.

    It used to be Florida that got all the big hurricanes, but even then Miami and Orland were never completely destroyed.

  • eric c
    Lv 5
    1 decade ago

    You make a lot of good points, but you are making a false assumption. Skeptics do not believe that there is a 90% or even a high probability that humans activity will cause catastrophic warming.

    There are also scientists who are saying that human activity will not cause catastrophic warming. I just happen to find the scientists who claim otherwise more credible. You do not, and you are entitled to your opinion as I am to mine. (The reason have been repeated so often in the past, no need to repeat)

    One thing that I find strange is that we keep hearing how scientific and public opinion all say that global warming is a concern. But according to believers us tiny minority of skeptics hold so much political power that we are preventing measures from being taken to fight climate change.

  • mikey
    Lv 6
    1 decade ago

    Oh dear, Adam C is picking on me again, i just don't think i can go on knowing he dislikes me, as a AGW naysayer...but I will comment anyway-as everyone knows, you would like to be able to link GW with Gustav...unfortunately with even your flaming acceptance of Algorism, you are not so ignorant(hopefully) to suggest that this is the case, so instead, you make some silly reference to the probability of a hit on 'nawlins', but your comparison is once again not applicable to the situation-of course we should get out of harms way, funny, i would have thought you might want to comment on the potential harm to endangered plants and animals, but instead you use a very serious storm and the potential for loss of human life to make a very obtuse point-too bad, but typical of the pro-AGW posts on this site-remember, if you cannot say anything constructive, the least you can do is shut up!

    Source(s): old doc
  • oakey
    Lv 4
    5 years ago

    i don't be responsive to approximately all this medical mumbo jumbo which does no longer galvanize me lots, yet from the place I take a seat, I genuinely have well-known as a results of fact i grew to become right into a new child that if I fill a tumbler crammed with water, then throw a handful of ice cubes in it, it rather is going to initially overflow, yet as quickly because it settles and that i enable it set in one day; the ice melts, yet not extra overflow happens. i be responsive to of no actual clarification why it rather is, notwithstanding if it stands to reason that the comparable could be actual if all the ice cap have been to soften. There could be no overflow. The molecules could by some potential study to evolve to the ambience they are in. i could rather prefer to work out some brainiac arise with a clarification why ice-soften does not boost the quantity of water in a tumbler already finished to the brim.

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  • 1 decade ago

    Um, as a matter of fact, after Katrina, the state of LA has made better preperations for the hurricane, "just in case". They have had mandotory evalcuations since last Sat. and now they have arrest warrants out for the people who decide to stay, and if they come out of their house.

  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    Whether or not what is technically the storm will hit land, there will be high winds and torrential downpours, with 100% certainty.

    In other words your analogy is just a WEE bit off.

  • 1 decade ago

    Probably. Denial is that way.

    For the umpteenth time speakeasy, the 31,000 scientists were comprised of people who only needed a bachelors degree in a field related to a science discipline. Of the 31,000 "scientists" only 40 were climate scientists. This is the grand total of climate scientists these right wingers were able to come up with in over ten years of trying. The rest of the "scientists" were anything from dentists, medical doctors to metallurgists.

    Get a clue!

  • 1 decade ago

    Over 30,000 scientists have signed a petition insisting man is not the cause of the warming cycle that began at the end of the last Ice Age, 18,000 years ago.

    It is politicians who have a 'consensus' that man is the cause, thereby justifying carbon taxes to seize wealth. Scientists disagree very strongly on this issue.

    But then, your suggestion that someone doubting the validity of one prediction should also doubt the validity of another, thereby remaining in a storm's path, is also not scientifically sound. It is false logic.

    Source(s): The Past and Future of Climate http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/Conf2007/Archib... 31,000 scientists reject 'global warming' agenda 'Mr. Gore's movie has claims no informed expert endorses' http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.vie... Scientists meet in NYC to challenge Gore, U.N. The newly released NIPCC report presents scientific evidence that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change, a better explanation for 20th century warming than greenhouse gas effects. http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.vie... Scientists issue open letter to Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations Global climate change is normal, carbon restraints will cause further suffering by preventing productivity http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=164... Earth's eccentric orbit and tilt cause ice ages, warm periods. http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/wh... Clues to End of the Last Ice Age - increased solar output warmed oceans, melting ice and releasing CO2 http://www.usc.edu/uscnews/stories/14288.html
  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    So now we decide science by consensus? Either it is or it isn't. It doesn't get decided by a bunch of scientists.

  • 1 decade ago

    Billions of deaths ??? The way I see it , warming over the last 150 years has resulted in humanities largest population increase . Not a massive die off .

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