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Why are global mean temperatures so low?
The Mid-Pliocene (about 3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is the most recent
time in Earth’s history when mean global temperatures were
substantially warmer for a sustained period, estimated to be around 3 degrees warmer (global average) than today. (IPCC AR4, 2007, Chandler et al., 1994; Sloan et al., 1996; Haywood et al., 2000; Jiang et al., 2005)
During this time co2 is estimated to have been in the range of 360-400ppm (IPCC AR4, 2007, Raymo and Rau, 1992; Raymo et al., 1996) a similar level to today.
Geologic evidence and isotopes also show that sea level during this time was at least 15 to 25 m above modern levels (Dowsett and Cronin, 1990; Shackleton et al., 1995), with correspondingly reduced ice sheets and lower continental aridity (Guo et al., 2004). Note the world was LESS arid!
Both terrestrial and marine palaeoclimate proxies (Thompson, 1991; Dowsett et al., 1996; Thompson and Fleming, 1996) show that high latitudes were signifi cantly warmer, but that tropical SSTs and surface air temperatures were little different from the present. The result was a substantial decrease in the lower-tropospheric latitudinal temperature
gradient. (IPCC AR4, 2007)
So if co2 is a primarly climate driver as many believe, why is it so much cooler today with the same level of co2?
The continents have hardly moved since then (IPCC AR4, 2007) so it not due to that.
Also the sun has been more active in the past 70 years than in the previous 11,400 (Usoskin et al., 2003; Hathaway et al., 2004; IAU, 2004; Solanki et al., 2005). We have been experiancing warm PDO & MDO cycles and volcanic activity has been low this centuary (generally believed to cause cooling).
If all this is going against us, why is it so cool today?
Was it warmer then due to increased solar activity or changes in orbital tilt? If so then how could co2 be a primary driver of climate?
Are the co2 reconstructions from ice cores wrong and co2 was actually much higher back then? If thats so then the entire global warming hypothesis is wrong.
I am interested to hear your thoughts, as the IPCC do not discuss the reasons for why it was warmer then.
Yes, low volcanic activity is believed to cause warming, sorry if my grammer wasnt clear!
Global dimming is an effect I am aware off, but it believed to be a localised effect as is occuring in parts of China, its not a global effect.
7 Answers
- davemLv 51 decade agoFavorite Answer
Very good question. With more CO2 in the atmosphere and the passage of time, one would assume that temperatures must continue to rise due to additional greenhouse effect. However, as has been shown during the past 10 years this has not been the case. It strengthens the argument that perhaps we are looking at the wrong reasons for the recent warming. It leads us to believe that we should be looking for other causes, like solar influence and accept that CO2 is not the culprit.
- donfletcheryhLv 71 decade ago
If I understand the global warming theory, an increased greenhouse effect, from higher water vapor, CO2 or methane, we would expect temperatures to be rising, but not necessarily higher. Temperature reached would depend on how long that elevated greenhouse effect has been there and earlier temperatures.
We are definitely seeing some evidence of elevated rainfall, India, China, and even Iowa may bear witness to that. We can not say that it would ever be different with warmer oceans. Late in a warming period and into the start of a cooling period, as world wide cloud cover starts to increase, one should expect that rain might appear everywhere
Earlier in the warming period with reduced cloud cover we would have expected similar amounts of rain, but not as widely distributed.
You make an observation that may be right or wrong depending on how you normally use grammar.
"We have been experiencing warm PDO & MDO cycles and volcanic activity has been low this centuary (generally believed to cause cooling)."
As I understand volcanic activity, we usually see cooling as a cause of cooling, rather than low volcanic activity causing cooling. Low volcanic activity would be associated with warming unless the specific volcanic activity we do not have fails to release a lot of CO2. These convoluted double negatives always seem to mean the opposite of what we intend when they are read, and have less beneficial effect when not read.
- Anonymous1 decade ago
So if co2 is a primarly climate driver as many believe, why is it so much cooler today with the same level of co2?
Geologic evidence and isotopes also show that sea level during this time was at least 15 to 25 m above modern levels
- 1 decade ago
Can't answer your question, but wanted to say thank you for the information you left on my question. It seems to explain alot, not that I know much on this topic. I figured somehting had to be up, because I thought that water vapor, one of the "greenhouse gasses" would help stabalise the earth temperature and create less huricanes. I 'm sure I can't prove this......
But I will read the information that you gave me. I now have a better idea where to start looking for information and where to begin reading. So few people post informative sites like that.
Thank you very much.
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- 1 decade ago
Mainly from more pollution (air borne micro-particles) man made and natural.Short and quick; reflection back into space of sun energy (rays etc..) and the "Dimming of the Sun" adds to this lower global mean temp.
Go to PBS and check out the documentary of "The Dimming of the Sun" .
Source(s): http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/