Which one happens first now that Strasburg has millions?

He goes the Kerry Wood/Mark Prior route:

He is awesome for one or two years and then he blows something out, turning him into a present-day Wood/Prior.

Nothing is a guarantee. I remember Paul Wilson was the 1st pick in the nation for the Mets in 1994. There was talk of him being in NY in 1995 and being an HOF caliber pitcher.

He came up in 1996, had problems, and then spent parts of 3 years on the DL before they released him. I remember in 2004 on the 10th anniversary of the draft, they interviewed him, and he had 59 lifetime wins, never did come back from injury, and he did have what it took to be a dominating starter but never could get on track after he was hurt.

They also had Phil Hummer from 2004, and just last month he was designated for assignment by the Twins, he was another first round pick that never made it.

The Yankees also had Brein Taylor and Sam Milletello, who never made it.

Nothing, or nobody, is a sure thing!

he loses a elbow and the nats will start to cry since there not like the red sox

If anything, it's going to be his elbow because he throws so hard.