If you filter out volcanic and ENSO effects, what do you think is the hottest year on record?

Question

In a recent analysis, Tamino at Open Mind took NASA GISS data and filtered out the volcanic forcing and ENSO effects (using the Multivariate El Nino Index). Guess which year was the hottest on record with these 2 effects filtered out, but leaving in solar and anthropogenic effects? The answer is below - no peeking!













If you guessed 2009, you win a gold star! 2005 comes in at #2, 2002 at #3. 1998 comes it at tenth, below every year since 2001. As we all know, 1998 was such a hot year due to the abnormally strong El Nino that year. Filter it out, and it's not so hot.

Note that 2009 is the hottest despite including the cooling effects from the longest solar minimum in a century.

I'd link the article, but YA won't post questions containing wordpress links.  If you want to read it, just do a Google search for 'tamino Exogenous Factors'.

Any surprises? Thoughts?

Anonymous · Accepted Answer

lol! i bet lucia will just love that :-D. i made the mistake of going to her site once or twice thinking her a genuine skeptic, maybe she was a few years ago.

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/12/31/exogenous-factors/


happy new year all!

Tomcat · Answer

Wait a minute, 2009 is warm because it is an El-Nino year if you remove the effects of the large body of warm water at the Equatorial Pacific it would not make this year warmer, it will make it cooler. Starting in May we had Enso neutral conditions and by Mid June we were in El-Nino conditions. Removing the Bias of 7 months of El-Nino and 4 months of La-Nina condtions doesn't warm this year, and there is no significant volcanic forcing event for 2009, so  I think Tamino is wrong.

May 4 09:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.5.4.2009.gif

Mid June 09:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.6.15.2009.gif


Dec 31 09:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.12.31.2009.gif

Who Dat ? · Answer

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/09/12/dont-get-fooled-again/
more mental masturbation from those unfortunate people who suffer from thermophobia ( irrational fear of thermometers) or thermodyslexia (inability to read a thermometer)

Anonymous · Answer

Sorry but in all reality 1934 is still the hottest year of the current climate optimum. 1998 is second, but a full 1/10th degree colder. The modern warming the liberals believe in is the result of a defective computer program that has some major technical errors in its math. Currently the world has cooled to temperatures equivalent to those of the 1910 to 1916 period.


http://obamaisamonkey.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/george-w-bush-miss-me-yet.jpg

Anonymous · Answer

Is this an example of "Homogenized" data that the twits from East Anglia beg us to "just trust them" about?

Anonymous · Answer

NASA      Fudged  the  numbers  1934 was the  hottest  year.

Anonymous · Answer

I think the hottest year on record has to be when my wife found out about my girlfriend of twenty years standing. Phew was that hot. She hasn't cooled down yet!.
Masha.

Facts Matter · Answer

See also

 December 18 SCIENCE, free download

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/326/5960/1646

http://www.sciencemag.org/
cgi/content/full/326/5960/1646

Presidential Address: 
Reflections On: Our Planet and Its Life, Origins, and Futures
James J. McCarthy 

for analysis with years grouped by decade.

Even without allowing for special effects, all of the hottest 15 years since 1850 have been in the last 20 years.

? · Answer

I think what you meant to ask was, "what is the nicest year on record".  I don't acknowledge your filtering and fudging but if it turned out to be 2009, I would rejoice since we certainly live in glorious warm times.

Anonymous · Answer

If we filter out things that effect the climate, what would the climate be like?

If we filter out Barak Obama's idiocy in foreign relations, economic management, arrogance, condescension, stupid hesitance on the war on terror - and focus on his speech making ability, how cute his kids are and the menu at the White House, how popular would he be?

Anonymous · Answer

Are you filtering it in the same manner the MWP and Little Ice Age are filtered?

The MWP would contain the hottest year on "record."

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If you filter out volcanic and ENSO effects, what do you think is the hottest year on record?

11 Answers