How come the farmers almanac can forcast weather and the Met can not?

The Almanac is based on known natural climate forcings, and they continue to drive climate change on a year-by-year basis.

The Farmer's Almanac is folksy. It is like the Cracker Barrel of pseudo-science. It is like reading a comic strip and like Gregory House who always seems to get the right differential diagnosis. So what makes the Met talk about improving their long term forecasts? Pressure. People want simple answers particularly when the weather is really active. The Almanac got lucky this time.

The MET is always trying to improve long term forecasts because it helps both with operational objectives and gives the public a sense that they the forecasters, know what they are doing. The MET does great work and have a pretty good feel for why something is happening. The true science behind it.

If I call heads I have a 50% chance of being right but that doesn't make me an expert on beating the odds. I could write a magazine and predict those odds for a year and would be pretty close.

I know the Almanac is not totally unscientific. They do consider general climate patterns but the MET office, like the NWS have a more legitimate purpose and that is to forecast for everyone everywhere and that can be a daunting task.

I just feel we can't forecast based on tea leaves alone. Good forecasting requires a sense of what is happening, climatology and even some instincts. It also isn't swayed by popular notions or even scientific ones made off the cuff.

The physics of the snows we recently had are more complicated than just saying it was climate change because all weather is a result of change. Certain things have to set up before a situation like those can happen. But we have already discussed that ad naseum.

The almanac uses a secret algorithm based on sunspot variations. What a concept, looking at the Sun as the main driver of climate and weather. And they boast an 80% accuracy rate.

In Eastern Europe, pig spleens have been used for generations to accurately predict the next six months.

Some cultures use a goose bone to predict how bad winter will be.

And here in the West, we use overpriced supercomputers to feed garbage into, and are shocked at the garbage coming out the other end.

Any idiot can forecast general mesoscale weather when talking in terms of seasonal synoptic scale weather.

"Almanac believers will prepare for a hot summer in much of the nation's midsection, continuing drought conditions there and wild fire conditions in parts of California, with a cooler-than-normal season elsewhere."

Well no kidding, a blind retarded wombat could predict that.

"farmers almanac saw cooling coming!"

And were wrong.

Edit:

“did not read the stories did you”

Yea, I did read it and there was nothing earth shattering, but I did love that part about “Based on the same time-honored, complex calculations it uses to predict weather.” The only thing time honoured is their talent to write in generalities so that those who lack the ability to think beyond the surface information are easily impressed. People like yourself.

“better to have been thought a fool then open thy mouth and remove all doubt!”

Hey I’m not the one trying to assign the credibility attribute to The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s ability to forecast weather.

Anyone can forecast weather, but getting the forecast right matters to some people, but not to the Farmer's Almanac. Have you ever read their forecasts? I have, numerous times, and they are complete garbage, absolutely worthless.

EDIT: First, I couldn't care less about Al Gore, I never voted for him and didn't like his movie, have never quoted him on here and so I think he's closer to being your God than mine. Deniers seem obsessed with him.

Second, I LIKE the Old Farmer's Almanac, they have funny stories, nice puzzles and good astronomical information, but as I said before, their weather forecasts are GARBAGE. Forecasting tides and astronomical information months in advance is possible, accurately forecasting the weather for a particular day months in advance is not possible, except for climates where the weather never changes. With this "additional information" I seriously doubt that you know much about seasonal forecasting OR the Old Farmer's Almanac.

They're big into sunspots. They seem to do pretty well on that.

They're good enough at forecasting that farmers still actually use them... and depend on them. I trust the instincts and requirements of the farmers on the climate and the weather.

I trust farmers more than I trust a bunch of proven liars with a political agenda.

The farmers Almanac is as accurate as every other psychic prediction.

So, it predicts it will "be cooler". Cooler than what? That is no better than my forecast that there will be more earthquakes recorded in 2010.

Snow and "colder" are not the same thing.

And, AGW does not forecast the weather.

Now, go back to your horoscope. And don't forget to put in for that Bigfoot permit; hunting season is just around the corner. Oh yeah, tell Elvis I said, "Hey".

Because the Farmer's Almanac doesn't mind being wrong, which it most often is.

amazing isn't it?