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Probability: what's my best chance to miss this person I really dont want to meet?
I live close to someone I really dont want to meet. We both work in the same area of town and travel to work at about the same time. The other person lives closer to work, so would get on the transportation at a later station than I. To get to work I can take one of three different transportation methods (bus line 1, bus line 2, or subway). I have no idea if the person i dont want to meet uses one particular transport or alternates between the different transports.
What strategy gives me the best chance of not meeting that person? Should I alternate my choice of transportation with a fixed pattern? Should i alternate my choice with a random pattern? Or is the best strategy to use one and only one transportation method? Or some other strategy?
When answering, please give a reason why the strategy you propose is the best one.
1 Answer
- crazy3rboyLv 41 decade agoFavorite Answer
Well, if I were actually trying to implement this in real life then I would choose one way of transportation and see if the person was on the train/bus. If they aren't on that bus line or subway then I would continue to take that because it isn't likely that they would change their means of transportation. The chance that they are on the bus line or train that you chose to get on is 1/3. If you were to alternate with a fixed pattern, again you would still have a 1/3 chance of seeing the person because they would not likely change their ways of transportation. You don't know much about this person's traveling habits though, so you can't make a better prediction. If they were to alternate randomly, you should not also alternate randomly though because you both have a 1/3 chance of choosing a certain means of transportation; this means you have the same chance, hence a 1/2 chance of choosing the same bus/train. So don't do that!
Source(s): I took a stats course in college.
