Global Warming effects on Australia?

• Is the threat of Global Warming really that severe?

The effects of global warming have already been experienced around the world. They tend to be insidious and cumulative rather than any kind of dramatic climatic shift. On a global scale, Australia ranks somewhere around average in terms of the potential consequences of climate change; behind many African and Asian countries but ahead of many European and American countries.

• Increased flooding

It’s not so much flooding, but drought that has been and will undoubtedly continue to be a problem, not all the time and not in all places; but it is likely to become more of a problem as the years go by.

• Skin Cancer Risk

The increased risk of skin cancer is something that is more linked to the depletion of the ozone layer than it is to global warming. It’s the ozone layer that provides a protective barrier against ultraviolet light emitted from the Sun. As the layer thins out more of these harmful rays penetrate into Earth’s lower atmosphere and on of the consequences is an increased likelihood of skin cancer. The depletion of the ozone layer was a problem that was identified some time ago and since then the use of substances that caused the damage has been greatly reduced, the consequence of which is that the ozone layer is showing signs of recovery.

• Agriculture diminishing

The diminishing of agricultural yields isn’t too much of a problem for Australia. It is a wealthy nation and can afford to import grains and other foodstuffs when the need arises. The main threats to agricultural yields come from the increased frequency of droughts and heatwaves, together with insect infestation – locusts for example.

• Severe water shortages

Whilst this is unlikely to present any major long-term problems for the foreseeable future, it is a potential problem area in the future. It’s likely that the inland areas of Australia will receive less rainfall then they already do which could lead to some rivers drying up more frequently. In the northern part of the country the likelihood of water shortages is diminishing as a consequence of increased rainfall,

• Anyway, can anyone please advice whether any of these fears are dumbfounded and is there any truth to this.

Below is a summary of the effects of climate change on Australia, I’ve shortened and simplified it from something I wrote a little while ago…

Australia has an area of 8 million square kilometres and is the sixth largest country in the world. Despite it’s size it is a sparsely populated country with a population of just 21 million. The location and geography of Australia is such that it has a variety of climatic zones, the northern half of the country is located within the tropics and it is surrounded on all sides by seas and oceans. Most of the population live in coastal towns and cities with the interior having an arid or semi-arid climate that is not conducive to supporting large human populations.

Climate change is an issue of much significance for Australia. This is due in part to Australia’s prominent position on the global political and economic stage, its high level of greenhouse gases emissions and the likely impact of climate change for Australia.

Australia was one of the first countries to ratify the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. At the third Conference of Parties, held in Kyoto, Japan, Australia committed itself to pegging it’s increase in greenhouse gas emissions to 8% above the 1990 figure by the period 2008 to 2012. At the same time the global community committed itself to a reduction of 5.2% in emissions.

Along with the United States, Australia was the only country not to initially ratify the Kyoto Protocol. During his election campaign, Kevin Rudd promised the electorate he would ratify the agreement if elected. He was duly elected and did ratify the protocol. In 2012 most countries of the world will negotiate new targets for greenhouse gas reductions, Australia has indicated that it will be party to such agreements. Until such time it is holding off from committing itself to any strategies on the basis that it wants to be part of agreements that are harmonious with the rest of the world.

The actual impacts of climate change on Australia will vary from one region to another. Much of the country is already vulnerable to drought and prolonged periods of extreme heat. In recent decades incidences of both weather extremes have increased and this has affected the biodiversity and ecosystems of the country. All indications are that there will be more droughts and heatwaves in the future.

Such conditions render the forests and brush very susceptible to wildfires and in recent years these have been a very serious problem for Australia. 2009 saw the deadliest wildfires in Australia’s history with several hundred consecutive fires burning in what has become known as the Black Saturday Bushfires. These fires were largely the result of the record breaking heatwave that affected much of the southeast of the country.

Another problem caused by the changing climate is that of insect infestation, as weather patterns shift and more of the country experiences tropical climate conditions, there is the likelihood that insects will expand their environments. This could be potentially disastrous, already Australia is susceptible to plagues of locusts and each year the cost to the agricultural industry is around $2 billion. At the moment there are huge plagues of locusts that are devastating crops in Victoria and a couple of days ago the Melbourne Cup race was threatened with cancellation because of the infestation.

Some coastal communities are susceptible to the flooding and erosion, this will be enhanced by the rising sea-levels. At present this isn’t a particularly serious threat but the potential for significant inundation and the contamination of water supplies through salination will increase as the years go by. It’s likely that within 50 to 200 years Australia will need to construct extensive flood defenses to protect many of it’s coastal communities.

Temperatures in the southern part of Australia have already risen by about 1.5°C, this is more than the global average. However in the northern half of the country and in parts of the interior there has been little change in temperatures. It’s anticipated that in the future it’s the temperatures of the interior regions that will rise more than the coastal regions.

Canberra Temps - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_...

Sydney Temps - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_...

Cairns Temps - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_...

Alice Springs Temps - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_...

The increasing temperatures mean that the already vulnerable water supplies are likely to become more disrupted and the health of water-courses could suffer serious consequences. Droughts will become more commonplace and rivers will dry up more frequently than they have done in the past.

A further consequence of changing weather patterns is that the part of the country north of the Tropic of Capricorn (roughly north of Alice Springs), and in particular the coastal regions, will be likely to experience more frequent and more intense cyclones. Places such as Cairns for example, will probably see a 25% increase in the frequency and intensity of these storms over the course of the next 40 years.

Combined with rising sea levels, this increase in cyclonic activity will lead to a significant increase in the number of storm surges. Together with increased rainfall within the tropical zone, it’s expected that the extent of land inundated by flooding as a consequence of these events will double by the year 2050.

Sources:

Clive Hamilton - Running from the Storm: The Development of Climate Change Policy in Australia

Phil McManus, Vortex Cities to Sustainable Cities: Australia’s Urban Challenge

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

S George Philander (ed) - Enyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change

More Info:

Black Saturday - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_bushfi...

Climate Shifts in Australia - http://www.climateshifts.org/?p=5165

2009 Heatwave - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Southeastern_Aus...

Locusts - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australi...

I do not believe in global warming-climate changes every 100,000 years

I was in Australia last year-nice place, clean, also melting pot not as much as here in the USA.

The immigration there I heard is tougher so good luck

If such propaganda http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/predict...

will dissuade you from emigrating to Australia, I suggest that you stay where you are. The difficulties of emigration are great enough that you should not attempt it half baked. http://www.theage.com.au/interactive/2008/national...

No place is perfect. http://www.police.wa.gov.au/ABOUTUS/Statistics/Cri...

Australia has warmed nearly 0.1 Kelvins since satellite monitoring began in 1979. http://www.ssmi.com/data/msu/graphics/plots/MSU_AM...

This is about the same as the amount of warming Australia experienced between 1940 to 1970. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Cooling_M...

There has been a great deal of hype about flooding, but it really has been overblown. http://www.warwickhughes.com/drought/

As for the ozone hole, warming would mean more ozone. http://www.theozonehole.com/images/arctic3.jpg

I am Australian and most Australians hate immigrants - just a warning :)