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Can someone please explain how to do this question, because I have 7 others just like it?
A certain manufacturer claims that 15% of the candies they place in each bag are green in color. A 6 ounce bag of candies contains 200 pieces. What is the probability that a bag of candies selected at random would contain less than 25 green candies?
AP Statistics, I would appreciate the help.
Bob, there are 200 pieces.
Hey bob, I have a good eye doctor since you apparently need your eyes checked.
For those of you that are being helpful, thank you. I appreciate your help so much.
2 Answers
- 1 decade agoFavorite Answer
first, you must find the median and standard deviation of the amount fo green candies inside the bag.
median: (.15)(200) = 30 this should be fairly obvious.
standard deviation: there's a property you have to memorize to find this. its: sd = square root( (n) (p) (1-p)). in this case, its square root( (200) (.15) (.85)). there's no obvious reason for this, you just have to memorize. the value calculates to about 5.
now, you can calculate the z score. its median + (z)(standard deviation) = proposed value.
in this case, its 30 + 5z = 25. using simple algebra, you calculate z to be -1.
now you just look up -1=z on a normal cdf chart or use the NCDF function on your Calculator.
NCDF calculates the probability of the value falling on or before the z score. since you want less than 25 green candies (less than -1 z score) the CDF works. if you wanted greater than 25 candies, you would want to calculate 1 - the -1z CDF value.
http://www.uvm.edu/~dhowell/StatPages/More_Stuff/n...
this is a CDF calulator. the p value is your probabilty.
Source(s): I am an engineering student - ?Lv 71 decade ago
The probability that n pieces are green and 200-n pieces are not is
p(n) = 200Cn (0.15^n)(0.85^(200-n))
where 200Cn = 200! / (n! (200-n)!)
The probability that a bag contains less than 25 green candies would therefore be
p(0) + p(1) + ... + p(24)
According to Mathematica, this is 13.68%
The de Moivre–Laplace theorem says that a binomial distribution of a sample of size N and probability of success p can be approximated by a normal distribution with mean Np and variance Np(1-p).
In this case X = B[200, 0.15] can be approximated by Z = N[30, 25.5]. We want to approximate P(X < 25). It is standard to make a "continuity correction" and change this to P(X < 24.5). We compute Z = (24.5 - 30) / sqrt(25.5) = -1.0891622973.
so P(X < 24.5) = P(Z < -1.09) = 1 - P(Z < 1.09) = 1 - 0.86214 = .1389 = 13.79%