Iran - Is this a sound document?

The document contains a number of assumptions and relies on data that is not fully acknowledged, but in general is a pretty accurate document, as far as it goes.

The paper presents a lot of facts (or reports of facts) that show Iran has had an active weapons program for some time. It states that Iran appears to be working toward a missile launched nuclear warhead with witch it can attack other countries in the Middle East.

What the document does not explain is why Iran is embarking on such a project

If you take a look at the strategic picture, the idea that Iran wants to build a nuclear armed missile force starts to look rather improbable.

I state this for the following reasons:

1. Iran has very limited deposits of Uranium ore. There have been some reports that those deposits they have are already played out. The sanctions put in place by the UN have so far been successful in preventing Iran from buying Uranium ore from any supplier. So Iran does not have the ability to create a large weapons stockpile.

2. While the amount of radar and microwave energy filling the sky over the Persian Gulf does not, as it has been alleged, fry seagulls in flight, it is true that the Persian Gulf is one of the best monitored areas on earth. There is no chance that any missile or aircraft can leave Iran, cross the Persian Gulf and end in a mushroom cloud without leaving a clear and unimpeachable trail right back to Iran.

X would mark the spot, and Iran would be a glowing crater soon after. Be the source of the return strike from Israel or the USA or Russia, the end result would be the same.

The Mullahs are religious fanatics, and may be certifiable lunatics, but they are not suicidal.

Except for bragging rights, a nuclear tipped missile force is useless to Iran.

No one spends billions for bragging rights.

So what is Iran up to?

The document gives some clues. The is a lot of discussion about explosives technology and hemispherical explosions. That technology is required if you are building a Plutonium weapon, which must be detonated using an implosion.

U235, which is what Iran is working on, is a simpler material to work with.

The gun method (used in the first atomic bomb and on the early "atomic cannon" projectiles) is very simple and just about as foolproof as a nuclear weapon can get. If Iran just wanted a weapon, they could have had it years ago.

Why work on implosion technology if you are using U235?

Because the smallest nuclear warhead the US ever made was the W54. It weighed 50 lbs

You could carry it in a backpack. And it was a Uranium implosion device.

It was not easy to make. The US used several tests and a lot of fissile material figuring out how to make it work.

Which might explain why Iran is taking so long to make a weapon.

Because with a backpack nuke, the equation changes

Iran supplies a terrorist organization with the weapon

A suicide bomber carries the weapon to the Royal Palace in Riyadh

The Saudi Royal Family is wiped out

Every group from Al Qaeda .to Saudi Billionaires moves in to grab the golden ring

Chaos reigns as civil war breaks out

The west is paralyzed. Did Iran do it? There is no proof, no rocket trail, no radar track. Iran's friends tie the United Nations in knots

While the politicians dither and debate, the faction backed by Iran moves in and takes over Saudi Arabia.

In one move they:

Remove Bahrain as a safe base for the US 5th fleet. Without a secure base, the fleet must leave, and Iran controls the Persian Gulf.

With control of the Gulf and the Saudi oil reserves Iran can control the quantity and the price of the oil sold to western nations.

Iran takes control of Mecca and Medina, as well as the holy sites in Iran. This allows them to crush the hated Sunni faction and take control of the Muslim religion.

Faced with economic ruin and 1.5 Billion Muslims ready to follow Iran, the west has no choice but to reach an accommodation with Iran.

Iran reestablishes the Muslim Empire of the Middle Ages, stretching from India to the Straights of Gibraltar. Iran is now a world power, easily equal to the USA or Russia or China.

All with one backpack nuke.

Now there is something to worry about!

Anything a think tank conjures up is more about changing a status quo to benefit another than objectively trying to sort out a problem for the good of humanity.

With Israel the only nuclear state in the middle east and propped up by western money and military support, all attempts to prevent Iran ( a signatory of the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty) has received a lot of media since the 80's.

What makes this laudable is the issue is control of Iran's oil, protect the petro dollar and prevent any challenge from the Russian interests. To get the weary and apathetic western populations on board for regime change, CSIS among others write reams of paper in double speak to show how dangerous a nuclear Iran is - when the real problem is the state of Israel.

Yes. It matches up with news feed that I get from an independent source. Iran is, indeed, working toward development of nuclear weapons to be used against the West. If they succeed, we will have nuclear bombs going off in US cities across the continent.