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Battleground states: Internal polls?
Real Clear Politics averages major polls. These are the lastest averages. (Electoral votes are in parentheses.)
Caveat: polls can and do change, sometimes drastically. And they do not always predict the actual outcome.
Colorado (9): Obama, 1.3
Florida (29): Obama +2.1
Iowa (6): Obama, +0.2
Nevada (6): Obama +2.3
New Hampshire (4): Obama +2.3
North Carolina (15): Romney +4.8
Ohio (18): Obama, +4.8
Virginia (13): Obama, +4.8
Presently, the RCP electoral map shows Obama needing 23 of these electoral votes and Romney needing 77. I would see that as giving Obama the edge in where to target advertising. If you were your candidate, where, when, and how would you target advertising?
3 Answers
- Anonymous9 years agoFavorite Answer
Romeny is hosed
Source(s): TW - 9 years ago
Many of these polls are using 2008 Turnout models for both Democrat and Republicans. This means they count how many people call themselves Democrat and how many people call themselves Republican. Then they rescale the results so the ratio of Democrats sampled and Republicans sampled mataches the 2008 election.
But do you really think that Democrats are as excited about Obama this time as before??
Do you really think that Republicans are as enthusiastic (or unenthusiastic) to vote as 2008??
I don't.
It turns out if you adjust evey poll to somewhere between 2008 turnout and 2010 turnout, its pretty close to a dead heat, 47% to 47%.
