Excuse me but how you estemate Oscar show and its first place films ?

Well, most people just watch all of the films that are nominated and then root for the ones that they think are best. If you are trying to guess because you're in an oscar pool or something and have not seen all of the films, often newspapers like the New York Times will run THEIR guesses on who will win. They are usually pretty knowledgeable (though not always right) so it's safe to just copy their guesses.

Hope this helps!