Would a girl ghost you over Tinder notifications, or something else?

This girl and I swiped each other, and we started talking. She was studying abroad when we started talking, so I kept the conversation going by asking her about her trip, what she likes to watch or do, etc. After about a month, I was having to double text, which was ok to me at first because she was taking a huge load of credits and touring and just overall busy. I double texted twice before letting the conversation drop. She didn't text back after that. One theory I have is that she saw I was on Tinder and changing stuff on my profile, I didn't realize it showed up for her. To be clear I didn't swipe, I don't know why I was on there at all to be honest. Another theory is just that she lost interest or found someone, though the conversations had been decent. Which of the two is more likely to have had happened?