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Anonymous
Anonymous asked in Politics & GovernmentElections · 1 decade ago

If Obama wins Texas and Ohio could Hillary still win?

24 Answers

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  • Steve
    Lv 5
    1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    Mathematically, Obama can win the rest of the states and Hillary could still win. Realistically, not really. Obama would have way too much momentum, and would likely win most, if not all, of the remaining primaries if he takes Wisconsin and Hawaii, followed by Ohio and Texas. Then she would be dependent on winning a large majority of the unpledged delegates, or convincing some of Obama's superdelegates to jump ship and support her. I think some of her superdelegates may even vote for Obama at the convention if he were to win most of the remaining primaries, especially if he were to continue winning by the majority that he has shown in the last week.

  • 1 decade ago

    First of all, remember that for the Democrats, none of the states are winner-take-all. This applies to both standard primary states and caucus states (along with the strange Texas hybrid). So Obama could win Texas and/or Ohio by a small margin, and Clinton would still get a proportional number of pledged delegates from each state. The larger issue here is the superdelegates. There are 796 superdelegates who will be free to cast a vote for Obama or Clinton at the convention. So unless Obama goes into the convention with 800 or more pledged delegates (and that's not likely) then the superdelegates will decide the nominee. In theory, Obama could go into the convention as the “choice of the people” with more pledged delegates, and the majority of superdelegates could vote in favor of Clinton making her the nominee. However that probably won’t happen, because as Democratic party insiders, the superdelegates know that under such a scenario, the voters would feel that Hillary Clinton had stolen the nomination, in which case she would probably loose to McCain in the general election. If disenfranchised Obama supporters see the Clintons as a thieves, then come November 4th, many liberals and African Americans will stay home, and many moderates and independents will go to the polls and vote for McCain. So if Obama can keep winning state after state and go into the convention with more pledged delegates, he should be crowned as the 2008 Democratic nominee.

  • 1 decade ago

    If Obama wins one of those states, Ohio or Texas, it is pretty much his seal in the democratic nomination. His increase in women/young/old AND Latino supporters could very much make him a winner.

    My prediction is that Obama will win Ohio by a small margin. And Hillary will win Texas by a small margin too.

    BUT, like I said, Hillary needs to win both to be ahead. If she doesn't, then Obama will win because not only will he be leading in delegate counts, but many superdelegates will be shifting over to him.

    I will conclude by saying that Hillary is in deep sh*t.

  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    Right now Obama has 1,102 pledged delegate and Clinton has 978 pledged Delegates. Next Tuesday, about 500 delegates at stake in Texas, Ohio and other states.

    Clinton not only have to win Both Texas and Ohio, she should win them with at least 10% wide margins. Victories with minimum 10% margin, which gives her 50 extra pledge delegates.

    As far as superdelegates(unpledged) goes, if they go against the will of people, democrats will have internal fight into the convention and lose the presidency to McCain.

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  • 1 decade ago

    I wouldn't count on it, becasue neither has a huge majority of the delegates. Obama could win both states and still not pull away sufficiently enough should the races be close. Sadly, it'll probably come down to the Superdelegates, which is the equivalent of letting Donald Trump vote for Miss America. (actually, Trump would probably be a little more fair about it)

  • 1 decade ago

    Probably not for all the reasons everyone is saying...BUT, I do think that Hillary has a good chance of winning Ohio. I'm not sure about Texas, but she had over 12,000 supporters at one rally in one city last night so that's a good sign.

  • 1 decade ago

    No. If Obama wins even one of those states this race is over. Hillary needs them both to have any chance.

  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    If anyone wins the rest of the states 55-45, there still will be no one that reaches 2025 delegates, its going to come down to superdelegates.

  • 1 decade ago

    When Obama wins Ohio and Texas the Clinton's will have a community wake for her campaign. All her inner circle will burn Obama in effigy for his stomping her hopes. She insulted those at the rally last night by talking down to them but they still cheered.

  • Lucci
    Lv 6
    1 decade ago

    No, if Hussein Obama wins Texas and Ohio--- he is the Democratic nominee.

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