How do meteorologist predict a tornado?

OK, I'll try. It's actually a very complicated thing, that's why no one has probably tried. I'll try and make it simple but helpful.

There's large-scale forecasting, and small-scale forecasting. Large scale forecasting is more statistical while small scale forecasting is based more on physical signals that a meteorologist can see is occurring and may indicate a tornado is forming.

The Storms Prediction Center issues daily outlooks for storm and tornado probabilities. This is an example of large-scale. It's based on whether there are certain ingredients coming together, like wind patterns, humidity characteristics, etc.

When storms are happening, the National Weather Service will look at the storms with radars. When they see certain things happening in the storm with the radar that indicate rotation above the ground in the storm itself, they will usually issue a tornado warning in the expectation that it will actually come down to the ground. This is what I call small-scale forecast and I think it's really what you are asking. It only allows for a short warning time since it doesn't take much time for a tornado to come down from the base of a cloud. Also, by the time they see it with the radar, 10 minutes may have passed since the last radar sweep, so 10 mins. may have already passed since it started. The warning may only give you a few minutes to as long as 1/2 hour advance warning depending on how close you are to the storm with the tornado signature.

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RE:

How do meteorologist predict a tornado?

I don't need to know about the warning systems that much. I

am just asking, how do they find out that a tornado to coming before it does?

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First, before the event happens, they rely on predictions from the Storm Prediction center. They issue outlooks based on the threat of severe weather. Next the SPC will issue a Mesoscale Discussion for a region saying conditions may warrant for a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch the next few hours. Then if they feel conditions are right the SPC will issue a tornado watch for an area. This means conditions are favorable for tornadic storms.

Then for a tornado warning there are a couple ways. First doppler radar can detect rotation in a storm. When National Weather Service meteorologists see this, they will issue a tornado warning. Second, if a trained Skywarn spotter reports a wall cloud, funnel cloud or tornadoes on the ground this will have a tornado warning issued.

National Weather Service

http://www.weather.gov/

Storm Prediction center.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Ok, as someone who chases storms and tries to forecast where tornadoes are going to occur, here are some things we look for.

1. Large Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) This is a measure of how much energy a bubble of air will gain as the sun heats it and it gets lifted up to where water will condense out of it. You can measure the CAPE by sending up balloons, or you can forecast what it will be with computer models. The larger the CAPE the stronger the updraft which makes the tornado.

2. Convective Inhibition (also called CINH or the cap). This is sort of the "lid" that keeps storms from forming until (usually) late in the day. If the cap is too big you may have large CAPE but no storms will form. As the sun keeps heating air near the ground surface it rises up and erodes the cap until it's broken, and then storms explode everywhere.

3. Wind shear. You need to have the wind at the surface be in a different direction or moving at a different speed than the air above it. That's what gives the tornado its spin. No wind shear no tornado--although you may still have severe thunderstorms.

Anyway, these are the three most important factors in forecasting tornadoes. Once thunderstorms form then you can look at the Doppler radar images and see whether the storms are rotating--if you're getting strong persistent rotation then it might be time to issue a tornado warning.

Hope that helps.

a major low-pressure system will pass by a major high-pressure system. the sky gets really dark, sometimes there is hail, and then the tornados start. low-pressure is rain---high pressure is sunshine and no rain, The tornados usually spin into the low-pressure zone.

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