What do steals really tell you about a players speed?

Speed certainly helps but you also need the instincts.

I remember when the Yanks kept trying to turn Bernie Williams into a base-stealer because he had great speed...It just never worked out because that wasn't Bernie's game.

I also think of Davey Lopes who stole 40 bases at 40-years old. Speed was definitely part of his game in his younger days, but his instincts stayed sharp even as he got older. Then there was Brett Butler...he had the "smarts" but as he got older and lost a step his "caught stealing" numbers went higher and higher.

If I want to get a true indication of a player's raw speed I look at his defense (how quickly he can "close" on a ball and how much range he has) and his "first-to-third" speed on the basepaths.

For example, two guys who are among the fastest I have seen getting from first to third are Jose Reyes and Matt Kemp....both look like those motorcycle racers leaning way over as they round second. Reyes, however, has the better on-base instincts by far....Kemp might be as fast as Reyes, but he still makes too many mistakes out on the basepaths.

I'd agree 100% with you that the number of steals doesn't give a true measure of a player's speed, and has more to do with the ability to read a pitcher's move, understand the count, and know how to get a good jump.

Relating to getting a good jump - There are guys who are great out of the blocks, which makes them good basestealers, but some really fast runners don't always get a good jump. Rickey wasn't always the fastest in the game, but he had a quick first step, could read the pitcher, and knew how to slide.

If you want evidence that "slower" runners can steal if they're smart, look at Kevin McReynolds. He was not a speed demon, but he went 35-for-36 in attempts during the 1987-88 seasons. He just understood what went into base-stealing. On the other end is a kid like Gathright, who is obviously a serious speed burner but is only successful 72% of the time. With his burners, he should be doing at least 75%.

Ultimately, you'd want a guy who is both fast and smart, and to me that was personified by Tim Raines. I guess that's why he was successful on 85% of his steals.

Speed helps when stealing bases but knowing how to steal--reading the pitcher, taking a lead, and getting a good jump--is more important.

Back in the '70s Oakland has a "designated runner" named Herb Washington. Washington was a former Big 10 track star who won an NCAA title, several Big 10 titles and set world records in the 50-and50-yard dash.

Despite his great speed he was successful on only 31 of 48 (65%) career stolen base attempts. That's a pretty good indication that it takes more than speed to be a good base stealer.

There's a lot more involved than just speed. You have to consider the size of the lead and the ability of the runner to anticipate when to run. A good scouting report on the pitchers delivery time from the mound is key as well.

Players like Barry Bonds, Paul Molitor, Roberto Alomar where not know for their speed yet they all stole well over 400+ bases. Both Bonds and Molitor stole over 500 each.

These 3 are living proof it's not all about speed.

While the jump is important....

There is still a need for some modicum of SPEED. There is simply no way that with a competent pitcher throwing a normal pitch (80mph fastball) to a competent catcher; that a player with limited speed is going to steal a base, even with a good "jump".

As players get bigger and older their speed drops off and while they still have very fast reflexes (Barry Bonds or Travis Hafner for ex.) neither is going to light up the base paths. Even a younger speedster like Kenny Lofton ends up picking his spots as he nears 40.

Speed can make up for a bad jump. Speed can cause a pitcher to throw bad pitches (preoccupied with the guy on first). Speed is a major factor in the game. Steals alone do not make for a good judgment on Speed.

Look at a guy like Nook Logan, he was/is probably the fastest guy in baseball, but his steal numbers don't show it. Look at Gary Sheffied he is not fast but he steals bases often.

Base stealing is easier if you are fast for sure, but it has more to do with studying the pitchers and paying attention to how they make their move and more importantly how they telegraph that they are going to the plate. For most base stealers that is where they steal the majority of their bases.

you're right that SB's are not a true indication of speed. But, then again, who gives a dam who the fastest player in the game is? Other things are far more important like getting a lead, reading the ball off the bat, and getting a jump in the outfield.

I recall sprinter Herb Washington was signed by Charlie Finley to pinch run for the A's:

Washington played in 105 major league games without batting, pitching, or fielding, playing exclusively as a pinch runner. He had 31 stolen bases in 48 attempts and scored 33 runs during his short career, numbers which were relatively low considering his great speed. He was released one month into the 1975 season.

So it isn't how fast you run (completely) but how much baseball smarts you have.

I am with you, though speed (and more importantly acceleration) is part of the mix.

Some pitchers pay more attention to runners than others. Some pitchers have faster or slower moves to first. Some pitchers have faster or slower deliveries (knuckleball pitchers are notoriously slow in release and pitch speed).

Some catchers have quicker or slower releases, and stronger or weaker arms. Pitch count also matters, as does the number of outs, hit-and-runs, and the ability of the guy at the plate to protect or hit or bunt. it's also about OBP; you can't steal if you're not on base.

so it's at least as much a mental game as a physical one.

speed is just one piece of it.

Yeah, he is the smarter, more aggressive base runner. Not the fastest