What do you think of the latest Gallup Poll?

The 2004 Gallup polls had Bush ahead from about October 11th forward.

Of course, this is the popular vote only, which doesn't tell the complete story.

EDIT: OK, this is cool: electoral-vote.com lets you look at the 2004 electoral polls-of-polls for each day. 2nd link is to the one for Halloween '04, and Kerry was indeed ahead in the electoral vote, 293 to 246 for Bush.

But peeling it back, it's not a very strong story. Only 196 votes were "Strong/Weak Kerry", and the remaining were "barely." 229 were "Strong/Weak Bush" and 17 "barely."

So, Bush only needed to pick up 41 "barely" votes to win; Kerry needed 74. And that's how elections are lost. On this day, Kerry was only ahead by 2% in Florida, for example, where he eventually lost by 5 points.

Now, compare to where the race stands today. Obama leads 364 to 171; discounting the "barelys" again, it's 311/142. In fact, peeling it down to just the "strongs," it's 264 to 118. So at this point, Obama only needs 6 of the 47 "weak Dem" votes to win.

McCain needs *all* the Strong/Weak/Barely GOP votes, *plus* the 3 tie votes, all 53 "barely Dem" votes, and 43 of the 47 "weak Dem" votes.

I'm not counting my chickens, but it's a lot for McCain to ask for at this point.

Numbers... all the pretty numbers...

To be honest with you I do not think too much about it or any of them. None of the polls never galloped my way. Another thing to remember is that people vote, not the polls. The numbers which are being projected can do a flip flop in a matter of seconds.

People should count their eggs until the chickens are hatched. This is going to be won a hair or should I say peach fuzz, or fine baby hair. Do not be easily fooled by these pollsters.

They survey a certain number of people along different lines of race, sex and education in a certain area usually in suburban or rural area very rarely in the urban areas.

Obama already has the electoral votes to win, even if McCain won all the swing states. It's over for Mccain.

It's encouraging, but anything can happen between now and Tuesday.

On a related note, why do people keep saying that "the polls showed Kerry (or Gore) winning" and they lost. No, the polls did not show that at the time.

There is not much to be said about polls. Anybody who is affiliated with these polling companies can 'rig' the results to render whatever is needed. Therefore, progress may be made by changing this or that in one's computer. The polls definitely can not be trusted. Peace!

There is still too much racism in America for people to accept a black President. Once people are in the privacy of a polling booth they will change their minds to McCain/Palin like they voted for Bush twice. Americans have very predictable behavior

First, one ought to ask....who're they polling? they did no longer question me. they did no longer ask all and sundry i understand. I certainly have continually puzzled purely who's being polled in those various polls? that's needless to say achieved with telephone calls, yet are they random calls or calls to particular communities of human beings. it could make a distinction. Secondly, in our polls, one component of human beings are ignored. youthful voters carry cellular telephones and those with cellular telephones are actually not polled. considering Obama is supported by utilising many youthful human beings, this way of poll, leaving this team out, is probably no longer surprising. I additionally ask your self on the topic of the demographics of polls. working example, that's reported that knowledgeable voters choose Obama, working type human beings choose Hillary. Do they telephone each and every of the professors? Do they telephone production unit workers? how many human beings do they poll? Can one get a view of what the yankee human beings plan on doing on Election Day by utilising calling one hundred human beings, or does it take 10,000 human beings? we are a distinctive u . s . a . and don't continually fit into categories. I certainly have found out to take polls with a extensive grain of salt. they regulate on a daily basis, are often incorrect, and don't clarify the strategies by utilising which they arrive at their conclusions. subsequently, some polls might present pretend consequences. How could all of us understand? on the final election, John Kerry grew to become into predicted to win by utilising the supposedly good go out Polls, that have been reported to have continually been proper. Then....Ooops!...George Bush won! forget approximately approximately polls. Vote for the Candidate of your determination. don't be swayed by utilising opinion polls that could or is probably no longer surprising.

Polls will give you that warm fuzzy feeling that all liberals crave if you still believe in that pot of gold at the end of every rainbow.

But withdrawals are hell when you're coming back down. So if I wasn't a liberal I'd dump that poll crap.

The polls were correct in 2000 and 2004 - the Republicans just stole both elections through widespread and well-documented fraud. Obama's lead is big enough now that they won't be able to steal this election.

A lot of the people that say they are voting for Obama are young or usually don't vote, so I believe they wont... But who knows..