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dirocyn asked in EnvironmentGlobal Warming · 1 decade ago

If carbon levels stabilized at present concentration, how warm would it get?

Let's say, just for the sake of argument, that we were able to stop adding carbon to the atmosphere faster than it's absorbed. Never mind how we accomplish that (economic crash, nuclear war, pandemic, Al Gore becomes Pope and reveals the 11th Commandment "thou shall not burn rocks," alien invasion, or new and better technology fixes everything), I'm not asking about that.

I'm asking what would happen if CO2 levels stabilize just exactly where they are, at 387 ppm, that Methane stabilizes exactly where it is, too. This year. Would the global mean temperature increase or decrease, how quickly, and by how much?

And, more importantly, what's the science behind it?

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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    All the answers, in some detail, are here:

    http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/a...

    ... and if you want even more detail you can read the full reports (e.g. the Physical Basis one).

  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    In all the testing I have done co2 would have to reach 10% or more of the atmosphere to achieve even close to the same effect that 50% relative humidity has. Co2 at 4000 ppm or lower has virtually no heat retention value at all. The tests that were used to label co2 as a green house gas used containers with 100% co2 against normal air.

  • 1 decade ago

    From just CO2 alone the warming "in the pipeline" is 0.5°C from the carbon we've already emitted. The science behind this is that we've emitted CO2 so rapidly that the climate system isn't in equilbrium and the oceans haven't had time to warm up yet.

    However, there are other feedbacks when you increase CO2, such as water vapor (another greenhouse gas) also increasing. So I believe the total expected warming "in the pipeline" is 2°C.

    See the link below for a more scientific explanation, particularly Step 6.

  • 1 decade ago

    There's about a 50% chance that the Earth would warm, however if no changes occurred to greenhouse gases then there's about a 50% chance that the Earth would start to cool.

    The only think we know 100% is that there is a 0% chance that the climate would be static and never change one way or the other.

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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    Forget about it. That global warming was a farce dreamed up by Al Gore. It's a con job.

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