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dirocyn asked in EnvironmentGlobal Warming · 1 decade ago

Why aren't we in an ice age?

Okay, I know, technically we are, but we're in an interglaciation. Why? When you look at Vostok or Greenland ice cores, the most prominent feature is the sawtooth 100k year pattern of interglaciations. Most of the time, temps peak, then drop slowly for an average of about 6k years, then fall back down to glaciation levels 6-8C colder than our 1800 norm. But for the last 11,500 years, temps have always been within 2C of that baseline, and most of the time within .5C of that baseline. This long period of steady temperatures is the biggest anomaly to the ice cores in several million years. So why did the pattern stop? Why didn't we slide back into a glacial period 6,000 years ago? Does someone have a different way to interpret the pattern which would predict this long period of steady temperatures? If so, when does this end and what's coming next?

As a tangent, I'll point out that Homo Sapiens have been around for about 200kyears, and our female common ancestor lived 187kyears ago, right as temperatures were starting to rise. Likely she had some feature (lack of body hair, perhaps?) that was an advantage in a rapidly warming climate. As a species we are on our second interglaciation.

Update:

Linlyons, I call BS on homo sapiens only living in warm areas. The Bering land bridge was not exactly balmy, and there's evidence of human habitation in other cold places as well. I posted this under global warming because the end of an ice age is definitionally global warming. Shouldn't we understand the beginning and ending of ice ages before we make doomsday predictions about global warming?

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  • 1 decade ago
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    There's a theory that early humans managed to extend the current interglacial through relatively minor perturbations like deforestation. This theory suggests that the global climate is very sensitive to even minor changes, so the major changes we're currently introducing are very risky and dangerous.

    See the links below for further discussion of this early anthropocene climate change theory. As bucket noted, we appear not to be due for another ice age for 20,000-50,000 years.

    http://www.scienceonline.org/cgi/content/summary/2...

  • 1 decade ago

    The Holocene interglacial started further back than you state but it was interrupted by the Younger Dryas event which had causes we're still trying to determine. If the ice returned 6,000 years ago that would be a far shorter interglacial than we've had since the ice age began and though the interglacials have many common features they don't all begin or end in the same way or at the same rate. There is a lot of necessary speculation and inference done from fairly tenuous ice core and sediment data so there is a lot we don't know. That data can be cherry-picked as well such as excluding tree-ring data that doesn't agree with preconceived notions.

    Interglacials don't always last the same amount of time and it's unclear exactly why they begin or end. Theories include orbital eccentricities, solar output variation and other things but the Earth has endured far more CO2 than we could possibly put into the air with no dire consequences and endless warming. You're right that this interglacial has been unusual and beneficial for humanity, the variations have been minor with no rapid cooling or warming compared to many past interglacials.

    You probably know that the Little Ice Age included the Maunder Minimum, a period with no sunspots, which was the coldest part of the period. Today's sun is nearly devoid of sunspots, the oceans are in a cooling trend that may last decades and we're nearing the end of the average length of an interglacial. Draw your own conclusions from that but even another Little Ice Age would cause far more death and damage than warming would do. You can adapt to heat but you would find it very hard to live under a mile of ice.

    Humans have survived temps warmer than they are now and also far colder, but cold temps and ice would cause the population of most species to plummet dramatically as natural adaptation is too slow to keep up. It would get very crowded in equatorial areas if the ice does return since there is little land mass there, most of the land on Earth would be covered in glacial ice again.

  • 1 decade ago

    "Perspective that with or without human perturbations, the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the Sun. "

    http://www.scienceonline.org/cgi/content/summary/2...

    At any rate, cooling into an ice age is relatively slow (many thousands of years) compared to the current anthropogenic warming trend.

  • 1 decade ago

    Cave men drove SUVs.

    Edit - what does linlyons mean by "what is happening today?"

    It's not warming anymore.

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  • 1 decade ago

    we just had one...google/yahoo little ice age...in the 1600s there was a terrible cooling... you can look it up!

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