what do you think will happen in Iran? what are some possible scenarios?

Let's go on one by one:

1- Iranian people surely need a leader, and for now they are counting on Mousavi and Karrubi (the two presidential candidates) to lead them.

2- Pahlavi family is finished in Iran, especially Reza Pahlavi who is grown out of Iran hence no popularity in Iran, and is rumoured to be an addict.

3- Communist and Marxist groups which you named have no popularity in Iran either, because they are known as terrorist groups who have killed thousands of innocent people as well as popular post-revolution political figures and thinkers.

4- The worst thing would be the intervention of the foreign powers, because Iranians are so proud (UNLIKE IRAQI PEOPLE, for example) that as soon as a foreign country steps on the Iranian territory, they would forget the internal struggles and start defending their country by any means possible.

5- People don't want a big change, they just want their votes back. Every Iranian knows that another revolution costs too much to afford. It is just another blood bath with no guarantee for any improvement.

There has been actual DOD analysis done addressing that, Iran doesn't have much in the way of a delivery system for such an attack, while Israel, being armed with U.S. missile technology, most assuredly does. Given the current situation combined with the fact that Israel exists primarily as a result of attempts to destroy the Jewish people in the past and it is quite likely that such an attack would provoke a full scale retaliatory nuclear strike. With the weapons at Israel's disposal Iran would be almost certainly be completely destroyed, and - worst case scenario - the Israelis might feel that with their National Survival at stake all the Islamic nations were fair game and take out Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and possibly even Egypt and Saudi Arabia as well. Oil production would be completely disrupted for years to come and Russia would, in one stroke, become the primary supplier for large parts of Europe causing a major shift in economic power away from both the E.U. and the U.S. There is no way, under any circumstances, any Islamic country would benefit from anyone pushing the Israelis to that point, and regardless of the rhetoric I don't think anyone in an actual position to try such a thing is quite that suicidal.

Iran government and regime are in a complicated situation. as you have seen the election discussions have been the center of attention these days. there are several possibilities regarding the fraud in election, and the possible scenarios you have asked about. I think we should wait and see what will the investigation committee publish about the votes. I voted against Ahmadinejad the current president and am suspicious about the results but most of what I see is emotions instead of logical discussions. I wish I could send you the logical scenarios I've seen, as they are in Persian you won't be able to read.

regarding one of these scenarios you've mentioned, the leadership change, regime change, the answer is no. although there are potentials in Iran planning to change the protests to a revolution, they have no chance. those who you mentioned, Reza Pahlavi, Tudeh Party, Mujahidin, Fadaee khalgh, and some other ones have no more than few thousands of followers in Iran. they actually help Iran regime by their lack of knowledge and stupid theories. they have nothing to represent for the country leadership. one of the last articles I read was an interview with Pahlavi. I regret to say but he is really clueless about politics. his father was set by USA in Iran and now he says it was USA who managed 1979 revolution in Iran, and therefore Obama must do something to put him back in power. these guys are not more than jokes.

assuming the regime will not change, there are many other possibilities which some of them are realistic and some are not. we need to wait and see if the election was rigged or not. that will take some days.

Islam will always remain a part of their politics. Americans will just have to live with that.

It is the US that needs reform. The cruel foreign policies of the US should butt out of other country's affairs.

Iran's political/religious mix is somewhat different from that of the USA. Something the religious right would like to change. Nevertheless the similarity is well seen as our corporate overlords demand from the people in much the same manner. Iran/Islam USA/Corporate Power.

Amir - no country wants an invasion of foreign powers.

What I hope will happen is that a new regime will be established in Iran, culminating in a friendlier, more cooperative relationship with the United States, its allies, and Israel. I can see Iran, with its rich, undeveloped resources, becoming a leader of Democratic action in the Middle East, using its strength to help correct terrorism in Pakistan, etc., and establishing a new and bright future for its citizens.

What I fear will happen is a fierce, unrelenting crackdown by the governmental forces against the Opposition, resulting in a great loss of life and resulting in an even stronger resistance to the overtures of the United States and U.N. to ease problems. In this scenario, the race toward nuclear weaponry would accelerate and the "Thumb Your Nose" approach to any sanctions would continue.

An Oil Embargo - again - which is what US really needs to keep from interfering. "We' the People", already know what happened the last time we assisted Iranian Elections that only suited our needs.

Again, we will assist if it suits our needs - not before then.

Given our current desire to continue to be Top Dog - OPEC will shortly cease to exist and there goes US Energy prices - again - for a second time, in Our Lifetime.

For all yay sayers for a Regime Change - need I remind you of Iraq?? Georgia was a peanut walk and US fumbled. We cannot convince Korea and we are trying to convince Iran - give a break...

The clerics will throw Ahmadinejad.[ under the bus as the riots about the election will quickly escalate into riots about the governmental structure. These guys are not going to jeopardize their power over some fruitcake token politician. So he goes, the new guy come in and everything essentially stays the same. Iran is still a mid evil theocracy with a mid evil government.

I don't know enough about internal Iranian politics to hazard anything but some conjecture based on previous US and Western history and intervention in the region. Nor do I think that one can trust the Western media to give us the truth about what's really going on there. The news business is not in the business of informing the public, and the truth and the news are two very different things. Some basic facts, however, are worth review. Western and US jingoists are quick to point out religious influence there, but seem purposefully blind to the influence that Christian fundamentalism and fanatiscism in particular, and the role religion in general plays in US politics. The legacy of such influence is not unique to the Muslim world, and is part of the perpetuation of illegitimate power structures and hierarchy everywhere. Man will never be truly free until the last tyrant is strangled with the entrails of the last priest. Regarding the nuclear aspirations of Iran, given elite US goals, their desire for total control, and the disinformation that their MSM spews daily, it is difficult to know whether Iran's intention is to develop them for energy purposes, or for defensive (what the West calls offensive) purposes. Frankly, they have every right to pursue either. In fact, because the US hesitates to go to war with those that can actually defend themselves, Iran would be wise to develop nuclear weapons as a defense against US/Israeli/Western attack and aggression. Further, the US regularly violates treaties, agreements, and international law, including the NPT, but hypocritcally demands others do what the US does not and will not. Should the people of Iran decide that they have had enough of their rulers, then it is up to them to overthrow the regime. It is no business of the US or the West to interfere (but if history is any guide, US/Western interference is all but a certainty). The Western, and especially US, elites despise democracy, preferring instead top-down, elite rule which favors preferential treatment to Western corporate investors rather than the general population. Let's not forget that the US overthrew a popular, democratically-elected Iranian government in 1953, and installed a brutal dictator friendly to US and Western corporate interests in its place. It is well worth noting that the so-called Arab Oil Embargo was a Western fiction, designed to prop up oil prices and thus the fiat US dollar, and not an Arab initiative. Oil tankers were prohibited from entering US ports (for refining) by the US, not by OPEC. It is also worth noting that one of Saddam's "crimes" was his intention to break away from OPEC and pump more than the 20 million barrels a day that OPEC requires of its members, a situation that would have increased the supply and brought down the price of oil, but would have hurt US corporate interests who are the primary beneficiaries of oil revenue. Considering the friendly relations that the US maintains with Saudi Arabia's dictators, it should be plain that the US has no interest in human rights or freedom where it conflicts with US corporate profits. The US, in violation of its own laws, and contrary to the rhetoric about human rights, is highly supportive of the Saudi kings, their repressive rule, and the oil cartel. This should come as no surprise, as the US has proven time and again to be a nation of law-evaders, law-ignorers, and law-breakers, especially where there is money to be made. The US has no interest in anything which upsets elite rule (otherwise called "stability"). The last thing an enlightened and free people want is a closer or friendlier relationship with the US, its allies, or its cop-on-the-beat Israel, and who can blame them? Capitalism has always been a disaster for poor people, which is to say, the vast majority of people on the planet. Before we condemn the people of Iran for rising up, however violently, or the leadership there for repression, we would do well to consider our own violent history of exactly the same thing. Let's not forget that the primary function of the FBI is as a political police force, that Nixon's famous hit list targeted those engaged domestically in the civil rights movement and his political opponents, the use of storm troopers to put down anti-war demonstrations, etc. Whether Democrat or Republican, no US government has ever allowed any domestic movement or foreign government, no matter how popular, which did not conform to US corporate hegemonic rule to rise or fall on its own merits. Finally, given the stolen elections in the US in 2000 and in 2004 and the ease with which they were ignored and allowed to stand by the Supreme Court (in violation of the US Constitution), the US has absolutely no standing to pass any kind of judgement upon the relative fairness of any other country's elections. The US cannot teach the world democracy until it restores its own, nor can it rightly preach about the rule of law until

I have 3 scenarios.

1.The people finally do something about it and shoot the tryants.

2.The people do what the left here in the West does and riot and make a big mess but not actually do anything.

3.The people's desires are listened to and Iranians,Arabs,and Jews all hug each other and sing kumbya my lord in a sign of peace.Pigs also develop the ability to fly.

Macman, you sir are not thinking like a politician, if you were you would definitely see the advantage of religion.

What is likely to happen is that they will submit to the demands of the global economic giants, at what ever the cost.

That is unless some folks really stuff their heads up there, you know so it comes back out at the shoulders.