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Dana1981 asked in EnvironmentGlobal Warming · 1 decade ago

How much longer will the denier 'global cooling' arguments last?

Now that we've entered an El Nino cycle, despite the continued solar cycle minimum, the past 3 months have all been in the top-3 hottest on record, respectively. In fact, in GISTemp, the coldest month this year had an anomaly of 0.43°C, which was the average anomaly in 2008 (La Nina year).

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts...

In other words, La Nina isn't suppressing global temperatures anymore. 2009 will certainly be in the top-5 hottest years on record, and possibly in the top 2. It may even break the NOAA NCDC record.

Even the satellites are finally reflecting the El Nino warming after the customary lag of several months.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/08/july-2009-glob...

We all know the 'global cooling' arguments are based on cherrypicking a relatively warm starting point, say 2002 or 2005, and exploiting the fact that the end point - 2008 - was relatively cool. Voila! Cooling trend.

But if the end point is hot, the 'cooling trend' disappears. In fact, I'd be interested to know if a cooling trend can still be found in the up-to-date monthly data linked above. A good way to get 'best answer' to this question would be to calculate the up-to-date trend.

How much longer will the denier 'global cooling' arguments last? Will they continue to argue the planet is cooling even after 2009 is among the hottest years on record, and after their cherrypicked statistically insignificant 'cooling trends' no longer exist?

Update:

Dax isn't even worth addressing - he's just a kid who thinks people will believe he's an adult if he insults people and calls them kids. Psychological projection is a major tool of the denial movement. "If I call him a dumb kid, maybe he won't realize that I'm just a dumb kid" kind of thing.

Update 2:

No eric, I'm saying the warming never stopped. And no, I'm not just basing it on GISS. But please, keep making false statements about what I'm saying.

13 Answers

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  • 1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    Glad to oblige, Dana.

    Yes, you’re quite correct; the cooling has indeed ended...

    Current trend from 2001= -0.00101349⁰C per year.

    At least on the GISS dataset it has.

    However, as usual, it’s a very different story on the other 3 datasets...

    HADCRUT3 (Variance adjusted): -0.0101491⁰C per year.

    HADCRUT3 (Unadjusted): -0.0108147⁰C per year.

    RSS: -0.0156383⁰C per year.

    UAH: -0.0128856⁰C per year.

    So where does that leave us? You can only claim that the cooling has ended if you quote the minority dataset. The consensus is that it is still there at a rate of at least -1⁰C per century.

  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    A good title for this could be how to tell a lie using mathematics and real numbers. So just how does this work, let us take the last few month as an example. Because of increasing cloud cover daytime highs have been drastically colder than normal and in some cases daytime highs have not been this low since WWI. So then how are the warmers reporting record highs, easy just as the daytime highs have been way below normal because of clouds, nighttime lows have been much warmer than normal because the clouds have not let the days heat escape. So it is not that days are getting warmer, but that nights are not getting as cold as they would if those pesky clouds were not there.

    They are working from averages, add the days noon high and midnight low together and divide by 2 type of average. So your daytime high might just be 10 or 15 degrees cooler than normal, but if the nighttime low is 30 degrees warmer than normal you are going to show warming in averages when everybody with their senses knows it is really cooler. Now average this for a month across the entire globe and you will see how it is very possible to tell a big fat lie using real numbers. It all comes down to how use mathematical tricks to present those numbers. It is extremely easy to tell grandiose lies using statistics that only another person intimately familiar with statistics and how they can be manipulated can see. I have worked with statistical number manipulation for well more than 20 years doing SPC reports for presentation to major manufacturing companies and am more familiar with these concepts and how to manipulate them than most anybody here.

  • Eric c
    Lv 4
    1 decade ago

    So you are saying global warming has resumed based on three months of temperatures, that you yourself has admited is just noise.

    http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AroKl...

    It is not just that, you are basing it on one temperature set, ignoring the other three.

    Edit: Agreed, you have always maintained global warming never stoped. But you did say temperatrure rises due to El Ninos is not proof of global warming, just as La Ninas are not proof of global cooling. Given that UAH up until now has reported low temperatures, do not expect it to rank up there in term of hottest years.

    "It wouldn't. They're both year-to-year variations, not global warming"

  • 1 decade ago

    The arguments will last until the truth becomes undeniable, or more people become familiar with scientific thinking.

    The Scientific American website helped clear up the subject for me.

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode....

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  • 1 decade ago

    Sure the planet is warming up, AND HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST 6000+ YEARS, ever since the last ice-age ended.

    Don't try to blame man for something that went on LONG BEFORE modern man arrived!

    Alleged "man-caused" golbal warming ALSO uses the "cherry-picking" method to obtain the data THEY want to use, and there is more than enough contradictory information available!

  • All the way through winter. By next summer they still won't admit they were wrong, they'll just have a new story. Short attention spans.

  • Rio
    Lv 6
    1 decade ago

    I thought your major premise was against climate variability. Now I have to listen to this. By your own account, it's a trade off between phases. But something you have always neglected is the appropriate exchange. No the magnitudes don't coincide as a perfect equilibrium. So maybe "Carter" does have something after all.

  • 1 decade ago

    "How much longer will the denier 'global cooling' arguments last?"

    Longer than yours, this topic looks dead, hours between posts. Your followers aren't posting like they used too, which means your sham church is losing ground.

    How much longer will the global warming cult last?

    By the look of things not much longer.

  • 1 decade ago

    The June anomaly was zero according to UAH.

    Given that it was the tenth coolest June in my state and its neighboring state, and cooler than average everywhere I've been this Summer, and cooler last year than the year before that, and given that even by your numbers, the temps are not going up, just staying level, I think that while it's premature to refer to a "cooling trend" it certainly undeniable that the temperatures have "leveled out."

    Atmospheric CO2 concentration, however, as not "leveled out.' It keeps increasing.

    So for AGW to be true, the temps would have to have continued to increase.

    They haven't.

  • 1 decade ago

    hmm, those who have rationalized their ways to deny AGW so far will surely continue to find ways to rationalize it. They at least get points for creativity!

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