Will we set a new record for low Arctic sea ice extent and/or volume this summer?

It has indeed been melting at a very interesting rate for the past few weeks now. We are certainly now below the 2007 level for this date. This rate of melting likely cannot continue for to much longer as we will be soon running out of seasonal ice and into the multi-year ice which typically much thicker and durable. However, at this rate of melting we will be into the muti-year ice very early in the season. How far into the multi-year ice will determine whether or not we set new records. Barring any anomalous arctic weather systems, which can easily happen, I think we could indeed be looking at record arctic melt this year.

Edit: Funny, I seem to recall that mult-year ice was gone from South Dakota ~15 Kya. during the Pleistocene. So I'm perplex as what this has to do with Arctic Sea ice of the Anthropocene.

Edit: Eric C said “They are falling so rapidly that many are predicting a La Nina is in store.”

Would the “many” happen to be infamous blogging “Anonymous” May 17, 2010 8:46 PM from http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/05/nino34-sst-...

The latest from NOAA is -

Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Although many models predict ENSO-neutral conditions, there is a growing possibility of La Niña developing during the second half of 2010.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mon...

That's too late to prevent Arctic Sea ice melt season.

Only a true denier could look at this graph and say (the trend of decreasing Arctic sea ice has been broken) It has just dipped below the record levels of 2006/7 and tomcat sees a break in the decrease of ice, that is hilarious.

Maybe. It depends on the weather from now until the minimum. Since weather is chaotic, I'm pretty sure that anything we say will be pure speculation.

Sea ice volume has decreased dramatically in the past few years, so it looks set to take another extent plunge if the weather's right.

On the other hand, we could get a cool Arctic summer.

Did you hear. The NINO3.4 SST anomalies are now negative.

http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/05/nino34-sst-...

They are falling so rapidly that many are predicting a La Nina is in store. That means that the warm currents from the El Nino that were flowing into the Arctic will be gone, and temperatures are going to start falling. Turn out the lights, your party is over.

Barring another Tambora or Krakatoa, I think yes, we shall set another record for low Arctic sea ice extent and / or volume this summer...

i reckon so. i already owe gwen a virtual fiver for the side bet on 'fastest melt rate', i'm just trying to figure out the exchange rate to vitual canadian $.

The US Coast Guard seems to think so. So does the US Navy, the Canadian Navy, the Russian Navy and all of the other countries that patrol or ship in the Artic. Glenn Beck doesn't think so...at least there's nothing on his blackboard.

Where I grew up in South Dakota, people looked forward to spring when ice melted, plants grew, flowers sprung, birds started nesting, animals had babies, etc... Now there are people that actually believe that is a bad thing. They long for the ice and and cold. Some people simply believe as they are told to believe.