Is the antarctic sea ice going to break it's maximum record this year?

Hi Stephen,

The behaviour of the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice is a complex issue, there are a number of factors that cause the extent of the ice to expand and retreat.

At present, the extent of sea-ice in Antarctica is growing rapidly and there is now more ice for the time of year than there has been for some years. It’s harder to make predictions for Antarctica than it is for the Arctic so it’s really a case of wait and see. Here’s a graph showing extent in recent years http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.p...

Given the present level of sea-ice extent, the likely atmospheric conditions in the next few months and the effects of oceanic oscillations I would estimate there’s a 50% chance that a new recent maximum extent will be reached later this year.

The question that Blackadder is referring to is one that was asked yesterday by Tomcat. In answering the earlier question I estimated that the maximum sea-ice this year would be reached on 23rd September and that there would be a little over 18.5 million square kilometres of coverage, this would put it on a par with recent years.

And this has never happened in the whole history of climate evolution in the past few billion year? Maybe as more ice melts new fossils of palm trees and turtles will be discovered on antarctica giving us even more detail when the polar continent was a warm lush densely populated forest 35 to 55 million years ago.

Its going to be close, while the Middle and Northern Atlantic have been unusually warm for almost a year now and greatly accelerated the melt of the Arctic Ice. The ocean systems of the Southern Hemisphere do not have any abnormally warm areas, this coupled with reduced solar activity and the probability of a La Nina forming, the Antarctic Sea Ice should sea near record levels some time in September.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnig...

This is reminiscent of the hoopla earlier this year stating that the arctic sea ice was at record levels. Since an increased rate of melting has occurred that sea ice is now at record lowest levels. Why don't we wait until the summer months to determine just how much Antarctic sea ice has grown/shrunk?

Maybe. If it does, it still won't be enough to compensate for the loss of Antarctic shelf ice, or even for the decline in Arctic sea ice.

Saw this question asked yesterday, i think, by a denier but it seems to have disappeared it would seem highly unlikely if you look at the graph of sea ice extent from NSIDC which show the current levels last years levels were quite high.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_im...

This year the levels right through mar-apr-may were well bell the 2009 level, so no there is little chance of a new record being set.

Using deniers own logic Antarctic sea ice peaked in 1999 so as all the levels since have been less it must be in decline and using denier maths that would be 14 years of decline!

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/s_plot_h...

It looks possible (though period of record is pretty short) but there's still 3 months to go before peak sea ice.

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.p...

maybe