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Survey question testing probability?
Hi, this isn't really a serious question; I'm surveying people here, so Here is the question.
I have 1000 doors, but only 1 door contains a million dollars (which you want, of course). You only have one choice. However, I won't open that door for you just yet. I show you 998 other incorrect doors, and so there are two doors remaining: the one you just picked, and another door. Now is your final decision: you can stay with that door or switch. Which choice has the highest probability of being correct?
2 Answers
- MathMan TGLv 71 decade agoFavorite Answer
You should switch.
This is the Monty Hall Problem x 1000.
Your chances do not improve to 1 in 2.
They improve to 999 / 1000.
You are given the choice of either the door you picked originally
(1/1000 chance of being correct)
or "all the other 999 doors, 998 of which happen to be open",
(999/1000 chance of being correct).
- Anonymous1 decade ago
It's crazy math, but you should switch your choice. (It's not hard, just hard to get into your brain)
At first, you have a 1 in 1000 chance of picking the million dollars. But at the end, you have a 1 in 2 chance of a million dollars.
This works for any amount of doors.
