Take a look at my breakdown, are the Packers better than the Bears?

Question

The Bears have a better record but are they really better? You decide. Below, I've analyzed all of the Bears and Packers season match ups, given that they played nearly identical schedules. I tried to analyze the two teams not only in terms of "did they win the game" but also in terms of the complete performance, even in defeat. How convincingly or unconvincingly a team loses is another side of the story.

versus Philadelphia: This is a tough one: The Pack beat Philly by 7, the Bears beat them by 5. The Packers didn't have to deal with Michael Vick all game, while the Bears did. However, the Packers did hold Vick off for the win in the end. And the Packers played in Philly, while the Bears at home. I would say The Bears win was still more impressive, given that Vick was in all game.
ADVANTAGE: BEARS

versus Buffalo: The Bears won by a field goal, the Packers slaughtered them. Yes, the Bears were in Buffalo but does that really matter? It's the Bills. You just can't compare these two performances
ADVANTAGE: PACKERS

versus Detroit: The Bears *should* have lost at home to the Lions in week 1. The Bears got a fluke win. Calvin Johnson got gypped, and everyone knows it. The Bears won another close game in Detroit. The Pack lost a close game in Detroit without their starting QB for half the game, and won a similarly close game in Green Bay. This *should* be a draw by all rights, but at the end of the day, the Bears have two Ws and the Pack have 1.
ADVANTAGE: BEARS

versus Washington: The Packers lost by three in overtime in Washington. The Bears lost by three in regulation at home. Pretty easy.
ADVANTAGE: PACKERS

versus Miami: The Packers lost in OT at home. The Bears shut them out on the road. Yes, the Bears were playing the Dolphins third string QB, but the Packers still lost.
ADVANTAGE: BEARS

versus Minnesota: Both teams swept the Vikings and both teams had one blowout game against the Vikings. However, the Bears blowout was with the Vikes 3rd string QB. The Packers blew out Favre's Vikings.
ADVANTAGE: PACKERS

versus New York (Jets): This is a tough one. The Packers vaunted offense was limited to 9 points and Rodgers did not throw a TD pass. The Bears vaunted defense allowed 34 points. However, the Packers shut the Jets out and played them in New York. The won by 9. The Bears won by 4 at home... 
ADVANTAGE: PACKERS

versus Dallas: Both teams beat Dallas. The Packers absolutely destroyed Dallas at home. The Bears won by a touchdown in Dallas. However, the Packers were facing Kitna instead of Romo as the Bears did. Kitna is not a bad QB, and Romo is still overrated. It's hard to give the Bears the advantage given the scoreline in the Packer game, but the Bears did beat them on the road with their starter when the Cowboys still thought they had something to play for.
ADVANTAGE: BEARS

versus Atlanta/Carolina and San Francisco/Seattle: The Packers had to face arguably the best team in the NFC on the Road where they are 19-1 under their QB, Matt Ryan. The Bears had to face the worse team in the league in the Panthers. Bears won and Packers lost, but only by a field goal. The Bears lost to the Seahawks at home, the Packers beat the 9ers at home. In summary, the Packers went 1-1 against an amazing team and a bad team, the Bears went 1-1 against a bad team and a terrible team for their "grab bag" games that the other opponent did not have to face.
ADVANTAGE: PACKERS

versus New England: The Packers went into Foxborough where the Patriots haven't lost in almost 30 games played, and gave the NFL's best team a run for their money in a close loss with their backup QB. The Bears were slaughtered at home with their starting QB. 
ADVANTAGE: PACKERS

versus New York: The Bears lost by 2 TDs in New York, the Packers destroyed the Giants at home. The home field advantage can't be thought of as a huge difference maker here. Pretty clear cut.
ADVANTAGE: PACKERS

So, of the 11 matchups in the season analyzed the Packers come out with 7 in their favor to the Bears 4. As you can see, I have left out the Packers/Bears series as it has not been finished yet. If the advantage goes to the Bears, they will have 5 tallies to the Packers 6. 

All indicators seem to point to the Packers, despite their inferior record, being the better team. We must not also forget that the Packers are without Grant, Finely and their slew of defensive starters.

JT - Go Brewers! 9-9. · Accepted Answer

Your breakdown is impressive, great analogy.

Add in all the injured players: Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, Nick Barnett, Mark Tauscher, Morgan Burnett, Atari Bigby and Cullen Jenkins. They have found a way, we see how it went without Rodgers and they still only lost to the Patriots by 4. ESPN (okay, they are off often) but said it this way, they could be the most talented team since the 2007 Patriots to not win the ultimate prize. Okay, that's pushing the envelope, but in reality this team would be killing with their full roster. They have no one in their running game, but even there you have improvements with guys who somehow find a way once in a while.

They have not lost by more than 4 points in any of their losses, 2 in OT. Along the way, they adjusted. In their first game against the Bears they were adjusting with the replacements and gave up 18 penalties. EIGHTEEN! and all deserved. No longer, they came together.

I agree with you 100%

Robert B · Answer

I hear all you Packer fans saying how your going to defeat the Bears and you couldn't even beat the hopeless Lions, might I add you couldn't even get one TD in 4 quarters. The first game I admit the Packers would have won if it weren't for penalties but Chicago was in transition of learning Martz offense which has improved vastly from week one. Chicago has also replaced the left and Right Guards on the Offensive line which has given cutler better protection. Also the Packers weren't facing Julius Peppers at his best due to the fact he was still trying to learn Chicago's defensive play book. The Packers faced  Kevin "corn on the "Kolb in week one for most of the game in Philly. If Vick would have started that game the Packers would have lost. The Packers faced the Jets when they were having a bad day and could only muster 3 field goals. Like some of you already mentioned the Bears and Packers faced the same opponents and we are 11-4 and your 9-5. We beat you at Lambeau under Smith before, we can beat you again. Have a good day.

? · Answer

I agree with you completely. The Packers are definitely a better team. I think they will go further than the Bears in the playoffs. Which is saying a lot, considering the Bears look like they will end up getting a first round bye. We'll see.

dartman · Answer

packer to me are a better team the only reason they have done so bad this year is becasue they lost grant so there running game has not been what it was expected to be...plus they also lost rogers a couple of games and lost .packer have a much better qb which to me will let them make it father then the bears this year if they make the playoffs

? · Answer

Sorry but you can't rely on this kind of junk to know who's better than who. At the end of the day it's how far whoever gets in playoffs. For now its who has the better record, Bears are a top 5 NFL team. Packers are just outside looking in at the top 10. Now your analyzation was spot on here, I agree with pretty much all your points, but stats just don't mean what they do in other sports these days. Notable example is the Chargers top ranking offense and defense, but that didn't turn out well. Also a win is a win, every team has a different style of play which results in different scores. So I am going to go head to head on basically a ton of stuff here so follow me:

Strength of Schedule: Packers-53%, Bears-49%
PPG: Packers-25.2, Bears-22.1
Offensive YPG: Packers-361, Bears-294
PPG Allowed: Packers-15.8, Bears-18.4
Defensive YPG: Packers-315, Bears-316 (basically tie) 
Turnovers: Packers +10, Bears +4

So Packers are 6-0 and win in every category. Oh, I forgot one last one, record and its worth 10 points. So Bears win. Really record is what matters. If packers play like they did against Giants then I think they can beat Bears. Your obviously not winning division...nvm cut this ****. Packers just need to make playoffs, then if they are better than bears they will go through bears in playoffs because in order to make playoffs you guys need to win, Eagles are probably winning out so Bears will have 3 seed and you guys will have 6.

*And injuries? Your not going to get any sympathy from the nfl officials. You complain about injuries in the short term, but the long term you can talk about. Sure your better than Bears with your injured players......But you don't have them right now soooo

Anonymous · Answer

first of all let me say GO COWBOYS and BOO Green Gay bay. Packers fans are cocky people and they will still talk smack about the playoffs but just like the regular season the boys will get it done in dallas and silence the pack once again

CT77 · Answer

Wow, you did a lot of research. But, even without that, I can say the PACKERS are better than the Bears. If they would have been 100% healthy all year, the PACK would be NFC North Champs...easy.

Hawk M · Answer

as far as the QB goes, Rodgers is much better than Cutler
this is Cutlers 1st winning season anywhere, 

Cutler is much less consistent than Rodgers.
Rodgers would win 2 out of 3 games against Cutler

BlackMamba · Answer

Green Bay

Anonymous · Answer

the only thing that matters is head to head, and with the pack not getting tons of penalties next week they will beat the bears

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Take a look at my breakdown, are the Packers better than the Bears?

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