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Why does the myth that we are "running out of oil" persist despite being proven wrong again and again?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/28/science/28tierne...
5 years ago, the author of the linked article made a bet with a "sky is falling" doom and gloomer (who was published in the NY Times back then) about the price of oil 5 years into the future. At the time, the doom and gloomer, who is a member of the elitist Council on Foreign Relations and an investment bank(st)er, predicted that oil prices would triple in 5 years, adjusted for official inflation rates (which, of course, are notorious for understating the amount of inflation). In 2005, oil was about $65 a barrel, yet a member of the power elite who was promoting the Neo-Malthusian myth that we are supposedly "running out of oil," actually thought oil would be $200 a barrel in 2010. Instead, oil was $80 a barrel in 2010, which is $71 a barrel adjusted for official inflation rates (if you assume, as I do, that official inflation rates underestimate inflation, then oil is basically the same price today that it was 5 years ago).
Could it be that this "running out of oil" myth only seems credible because of the heavy amounts of inflation in the last few decades since Nixon closed the gold window? A gallon of gasoline does cost about the same thing in gold or silver that it did in the past. Obviously, the official inflation rates underestimate the amount of inflation because the natural tendency when the money supply is stable is for prices to fall every year (the reason why gas prices haven't fallen in recent decades is arguably because of environmentalists interfering with the production of energy). I believe (as do many free market economists) that the government also distorts its statistics to lower the inflation rate (this is, of course, in the government's interest, as it allows them to reduce entitlement spending increases for the elderly, which are linked to the official inflation rate).
It seems that betting with those who believe that we are "running out of oil" is a great way to make money, as their false prophecies may receive headlines and media coverage, but the optimists have reality on their side.
12 Answers
- Anonymous1 decade agoFavorite Answer
Peak oil vs. Abiotic oil...
Peak oil proponents say that we are reaching peak oil production and then a sharp decline of production since we are running out of oil...
Abiotic oil proponents say that oil wells replenish themselves after a certain amount of time and dry wells have suddenly been filled with oil coming up from the earth's mantle...
Which is correct?
Abiotic oil.
So I agree 100% with your post...
Source(s): Anything but mainstream media... - 1 decade ago
Oil will eventually become scarce, so it's not mythical to say that "we're running out of oil". It takes millions of years to form, and has to become depleted eventually. It might take 50 years, 100 years, maybe even 200 - but the time will come that it will no longer be a major source of energy.
And the Canadian tar sands are an environmental nightmare; same with the Bakken Formation, the total reserves of which are just a drop in the bucket.
"The Bakken potential resource, while large by US onshore field standards, will have only a minor effect on US production or imports. Using 2006 US imports and consumption for comparison, the Bakken undiscovered resource of 3,649 million barrels of oil, if subsequently discovered and fully developed, would provide us with the equivalent of six months of oil consumption or 10 months of imports, spread over 20 or more years. In reality, the reserves developed are likely to be many times smaller than this value".
- Uncle PennybagsLv 71 decade ago
Look, it's undeniable that petroleum is a finite resource. We will "run out" at some point.
And of the current types of oil we use, we probably will run out in 100 years or so. That's oil recoverable by technology at the time. And by run out, I mean production won't meet our needs.
Of course, there are other sources of oil that those folks aren't talking about. Shale oil for instance. With oil prices staying at $70 and above for the last 5 years, it's economically feasible to start producing this. Guess which country is the Saudi Arabia of Shale Oil? That's right, it's the US of A.
Who knows, in 50 years, we might be one of the big oil exporters, shale oil that is.
- 20/20Lv 61 decade ago
Look!!! It's this simple and the liberal idiots at the NY Times knows this but will never print it.
OPEC and Saudi Arabia sets the production volume well in advance of the crude even be drilled. The production amount sets the price at the markets around the world. When demand reaches a point where the production volume schedules is getting close, the price per barrel ( not yet drilled ) goes up.
The price at the pump going up has not one damn thing to do with oil in the earth, it only reflects how much of it OPEC wants to pump based on its pre determined schedule.
When the world's demands exceed the schedule, pp barrel goes up and the pg at the pump goes up in reaction. JESUS.......this was taught in high school!!!! Are you saying we have grown a$$ adults reading what the NY times prints instead of being smart enough to focus on what they're not printing??? Time to go back to high school, at least you'll learn more.
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- 1 decade ago
to drive up oil prices....
in my state new oil is discovered all the time..
they cap the wells after drilling them in hopes of reopening them when prices skyrocket.
plus lets not forget the left wont let no new refinery's to be built and no drilling in certain areas.
when gas hits 4$ a gallon this year and 5$ a gallon next year maybe we should spread the blame not only to big oil but to the left.......
Source(s): someone who works on oil derricks. - princess pounderLv 71 decade ago
I think most people realize that we will never run out of oil. But at some point we will run out of affordable oil. And no one knows when that time will be.
- Anonymous1 decade ago
"Peak Oil" kind of died on the vine didn't it. Then when you question it of course you get the "recession caused oil surpluses" line.
If we were seriously running out of oil the SUV would have gone the way of the muscle cars of the 70's when access was the issue. But we figured out that you can kill anybody that stands between us and oil so fire up the Hummer.
- 1 decade ago
it's not a Myth
it's a matter of when (not if)
so... we are all happy that Peak Oil is decades away !!!
but that still doesn't change the facts
- Anonymous1 decade ago
The only "power elite" you need to worry about is the oil industry and their political lackeys.
There is a finite supply of oil. It will run out some day.
Entitlement payments to the elderly are the chief cause of the growing national debt.
- 45 autoLv 71 decade ago
BO want's Government Motors to sell there Volt and Green cars and Green programs. It will help his stock for when he loses his job.