If the predictions of a cold winter are correct, what effect will this have on the global warming industry?

In Australia we have record heat and already appalling forest fires. I guess that doesnt count & we should only be interested in some parts of USA

To start with, I can assure you the prediction of a cold northern hemisphere winter this year will come true, as it does every winter. Every winter, somewhere gets unusually cold, and somewhere else gets unusually mild. Somewhere gets more snow than usual, and somewhere else gets less.

Open-ended predictions need no evidentiary basis, and they don't teach us anything new when they come true. I don't need to know anything about you to predict "You will run into an old acquaintance," and I still don't know anything about you when the prediction eventually comes true.

To be within the realm of evidence-based science, the prediction has to have defined constraints. Cold meaning low temperatures or high precipitation? Relative to when, last year or a century ago? Global or regional, and which regions? Averaging which months?

The prediction also has to specify which trends and cycles make it likely to get cold. That way, if the prediction is wrong, we know how to improve it for next time. If the prediction is right, we know how to make the prediction for the next winter reflect changes in those trends and cycles between now and then, so we can keep the winning streak going.

Below is an example of what evidence-based long-lead weather outlooks look like. Interestingly, the nine main factors going into NOAA's monthly and seasonal outlooks don't include global warming. This should make sense since, whether you believe in global warming or not, we can all agree that greenhouse gas concentrations have virtually no impact over a period of a few months compared to natural cycles such as ENSO.

By "cold winter" you imply an unusual winter which would support the global warming theory as there are known mechanisms such as the Thermohaline Circulation that would react in this way due to a decreasing ocean salinity. The questions then become whether or not the negative feedback cycle would compensate for the positive feedback cycles which we are discovering constantly and would the responses oscillate or work towards a stable point.

One year is weather. But, given that informed people know that global warming does NOT cause cold winters, since greenhouse gases can only cause warming, according to the laws of thermodynamics, then like last year, they will not make such a claim.

And where are these predictions of a cold winter coming from? From models, or is your rheumatism acting up? If it's from models, fill in the blanks.

<The Farmer's Almanac. Various meteorologists.>

And where do they get their predictions from? Ouija boards?

<Remember, I said "if".>

I guess that rules out the Psychic Hot Line. If it is a matter of "if," they can't be very good psychics.

< But one year on top of a 15 year cooling trend?>

There was no 15 year cooling trend.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1997/to:...

And that is from skeptic Roy Spencer's dataset.

<Why not 98-13?>

13 isn't over and we do not have the data. If you specify starting at a specific year, I can include the data for 2013, so far. But if you say a specific number of years, the latest complete year is 2012.

Zippi

<They keep saying it is the additional heat energy we have created, but they always leave the sun out of the equation and seem to think there is a perfectly normal climate state somewhere in the past where life was at its peak performance here on Earth.>

They do not leave the Sun out of the equation. The Sun has been cooling while Earth has been warming.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:...

Interesting question.

The science won't change because of one cold winter. The industry probably will not be affected directly either. The political will, on the other hand, could be dealt a fatal blow.

The media have just realised, 15 years late, that CO2 has stopped driving temperature. The IPCC has just missed a good opportunity to explain the pause but has flunked it. The politicians, in the UK at least, are being increasingly questioned about fuel price rises and power availability.

The green solutions, wind turbines and solar panels, are not famous for producing lots of energy in the winter. A few well placed questions to politicians about how much power they generated during a blackout or how much energy had to be fed into them during a cold spell or how long they were "switched off" during high winds could be acutely embarassing.

If science is not providing the answers then people will resort to making up their own minds. A severe winter could very well be the catalyst for political change.

EDIT @Chem Flunky: Permit me to add some more data:

So let me get this straight, you're asking: if a climate prediction is correct (that of a cold winter), will that cause people to lose faith in climate predictions?

I'm having a bit of trouble following the logic here.

It's interesting that someone would give a global prediction of a cold winter anyway, since it's getting on toward summer in the southern hemisphere. You knew that, didn't you?

They keep saying it is the additional heat energy we have created, but they always leave the sun out of the equation and seem to think there is a perfectly normal climate state somewhere in the past where life was at its peak performance here on Earth. Natural climate variations seem to always put a twist on that wonderful scenario they would like to have back. That's why they are called "environmentalists". I will give them credit though. At least they are donating their fair share of CO2 into the atmosphere. (tic)

If that happens, some will blame the cold on warming, some will call it weather, and some will lose faith in AGW. There is some differences in ignorance in alarmists. In any event, the statists will continue to try to get money and power by blaming fossil fuels on our climate, no matter what it does.

actually, in Australia, this time of year, it's summer, and yes, it's hotter.

at what point did the USA become the "world" or weather become climate?

Warmists will do what they always do.

1) never admit they were wrong

2) make up some new lie to cover themselves for the short-term

3) pretend they never said the globe was going to warm

4) move on to manufacturing the next new crisis, after all, this one has kept their pockets full for more than 30 years

That is the pattern they followed with the global cooling scare of the 1970's and almost every major climate organization was on board. Today they try to pretend it never happened. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/the-...

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