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Why is the world not warming if global warming is true.?
The graph above shows the temperature changes of the lower troposphere from the surface up to about 8 km as determined from the average of two analyses of satellite data. The best fit line from January 2002 to December 2013 indicates a decline of 0.023 Celsius/decade. The sharp temperature spikes in 1998 and 2010 are El Nino events. Surface temperature data is contaminated by the effects of urban development. The Sun's activity, which was increasing through most of the 20th century, has recently become quiet. The magnetic flux from the Sun reached a peak in 1991. The high magnetic flux reduces cloud cover and causes warming. Since then the Sun has become quiet, however it continues to cause warming for about a decade after its peak intensity due to the huge heat capacity of the oceans. So we expect the warming to peak at about 2002. The green line shows the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, as measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The ripple effect in the CO2 curve is due to the seasonal changes in biomass. There is a far greater land area in the northern hemisphere than the south that is affected by seasons. During the Northern hemisphere summer there is a large uptake of CO2 from plants growing causing a drop in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
The data are obtained from microwave sounding units (MSUs) on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's satellites, which relate the intensity or brightness of microwaves emitted by oxygen molecules in the atmosphere to temperature. The MSU data set represent the temperatures of a layer of the atmosphere that extends from the surface to approximately 8 kilometres (5 miles) above the surface. The data is from the University of Alabama in Huntsville and Remote Sensing Systems.
19 Answers
- MTRstudentLv 67 years ago
The heating caused by CO2 is still warming the oceans, at a heating rate of approximately 4 Hiroshima nukes per second.
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/heat_...
Recently, decade-long wind and ocean patterns have squirreled away most of this heat in the deeper ocean. Climate models can fully explain the observed temperature change when these natural wind cycles are considered. In the future, it is expected that these natural cycles will swing back the other way. There is evidence that the El Nino cycle has been going for millions of years, so there's no reason to assume it'll stop now. If that is the case, then the atmosphere will heat up more quickly in the coming decades. It has to, because heat is still pouring into Earth.
Explanation of the current, temporary shift of heating into the oceans instead of the atmosphere:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pacific-ocean-glob...
This is partly because of a massive El Nino in 1997/98 that dumped a lot of heat into the oceans. The warming trend since 1997 is +0.114 C per decade, with a range of plus or minus 0.136 C per decade.
The trend since 1970 is more like +0.17 C per decade. This apparent slowing in rising surface temperatures is well explained by the wind patterns and it appears to be temporary.
- 7 years ago
You are right in as much as the surface temperature is not increasing at the moment. However, I am largely with Trevor on this one. The temperatures for the last 100 years or so seem to be bases on an oscillating signal and a steady ramp upwards. When these are added together we get rises followed by flat sections. At the moment it is flat.
ChemFlunky is right to point out that when the oscillation goes into an increasing phase then warming will resume.
The big question has to be: "How much of that steady rise component caused by man-made CO2?"
0%, 50%, 100% ...
An interesting point is to note that although the effect is easily explained by an oscillation and a ramp, the climate science community seem to have been caught out by it. They were not expecting it and neither were the models. Just how much of the science is really settled, I wonder? They seem unable to accept that it has paused temporarily and, instead, are looking for places where the heat must have been diverted.
- Ottawa MikeLv 67 years ago
I don't like the way you phrased this question. I would have asked it like this: "Why is the world not warming if climate is highly sensitive to increased atmospheric CO2?
Well, that's something that has certainly stumped climate scientists. This can be seen from the variety of explanations put forth thus far. Here is a non-exhaustive list of potential reasons:
1. Low solar activity.
2. The heat is being transferred to the deep oceans.
3. The large increase in Chinese coal power has introduced aerosols which are reducing incoming solar radiation.
4. Like 3., aerosols from volcanic activity have increased.
5. The Montreal Protocol and the reductions of CFCs might be a factor.
6. Water vapor levels in the stratosphere.
7. Lack of accurate temperature measurements in the Arctic.
8. Pacific trade winds creating predominant La Nina conditions.
My personal favorite explanation is that the climate may not be as sensitive to CO2 as we think.
Whatever the cause, it's obvious that some factor is much more predominant right now than CO2.
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Edit: When the hounds are released, be prepared for the following:
- Being called an uneducated, right wing zealot who is anti-science
- Putting our grandchildren in danger with your heresy
- Not referencing your source and thus dismissing the contents with the wave of the hand
- Being told to grow up
- Being told to shut up
- etc.....
- ChemFlunkyLv 77 years ago
Mostly because, while CO2 is definitely a major factor in climate, it is not by any means the *only* thing that influences temperature. In particular, when you are looking at surface temperatures over a span of less than 30 years, you need to worry about long-scale land/ocean heat exchanges like the PDO. Talk to me in a few years when the PDO is back in a positive phase (that is, transferring heat from the oceans to the atmosphere, rather than the reverse) if temperatures are still holding steady.
Source(s): Please check out my open questions. - How do you think about the answers? You can sign in to vote the answer.
- NoahLv 67 years ago
The short answer is that heat energy moves from warm to cool. Excess heat energy not radiated into space in a 24 hour cycle doesn't stay in the atmosphere....it moves to a cooler venue like seawater and ice. The water warms and the ice melts.
If somehow we extracted CO2 from the atmosphere, say from the 400ppm it is now down to 250ppm far less heat would be trapped and the planet would cool off rapidly... you wouldn't want that.
- sailor8Lv 77 years ago
The NorthWest Passage now exist, Iceland is melting faster than ever recorded, Anartic is breaking up, The Artic is disappearing, Greenland is shelving ice never seen before, the South American mountains that supply millions with fresh water are losing all ice and on and on it goes. But the uneducated right says 97% of all the people who study this are wrong. The right complains about what the left wants to force on us but if the right gets its way there would be no us to force anything on.
- MikeLv 77 years ago
Basically, the excuse from climate scientists is that lack of warming is due to natural variation, producing cooling able to overpower manmade global warming. They should stop and think that this means that warming could also be caused by natural variation. But then Nature's contribution is considered to be too low, eve proven too low, because hey TSI just doesn't change that much.
- adavielLv 77 years ago
Glaciers and sea ice are melting. The temperature won't rise much until the ice is all gone, then it will rise like a rocket. Same as defrosting a refrigerator - the ice keeps the local temperature at zero
Source(s): total guesswork. but the glaciers are melting, at least the one I visit. - MaxxLv 77 years ago
Because there is NO man-made Global Warming. It's a political con-job to raise our taxes and destroy our freedoms --- in the name of 'saving the planet.'
It's been cooling for at least 12 years.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2...
Top climate scientists say there is no man-made Global Warming.
The Great Global Warming Swindle
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtevF4B4RtQ
Global Warming Doomsday Called Off
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr5O1HsTVgA&playnex...
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- MardukLv 77 years ago
Of course it is warming if you cherry pick hot zones. Of course, I'm in the Northeast US where it has been cooler but that can be disregarded as an outlier. Choose L.A. and Phoenix where it has been warmer and discard any cooler temps. That proves that Global Warming exists. See, it's easy. Don't forget the Sahara desert.