How do you, personally, rate the percentage likelihood of these things: A) The earth has seen an overall warming trend over the last 200 years If you rank A) greater than 0%, then also: B) That this warming is primarily due to human activities, and C) That this warming (from whatever reason) will cause significant problems for humans in the next century (this one is vaguer, rolled into it is whether we can do anything about it if B) is true) I really don't want a discussion of Al Gore, Taxes, Malthus, Water Vapor, Gaia, liberal fantasies, or whether it snowed in your town yesterday. I just wonder where the people who frequent YA stand with the certainty of their views. I'll go first: A) Earth is warming: 100% and so: B) It's our doing: 80% C) It's gonna be a big problem: 70% All I really want is those 3 numbers, and because it is, in the end, a personal opinion there will be no "best answer" selected by me.

a) 100% b) 99% c) Depends what we do about it. If we continue in business as usual, I'd say 98%. If we also consider the possibility that humans reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly over the period in question, more like 90%. But it also depends on your definition of 'significant problems'. You could argue that climate change is already causing significant problems, in which case the answer becomes 100%.

How do you rate the chances that these things are true?

Anonymous2011-01-01T15:37:49Z

Favorite Answer

0%
0%
0%

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Trevor2011-01-02T00:50:39Z

A) The earth has seen an overall warming trend over the last 200 years

100%

- - - - - - - - - -

B) That this warming is primarily due to human activities.

SOME of the warming of the last 200 years – 100%
ALL of the warming of the last 200 years – 0%

- - - - - - - - - -

C) That this warming (from whatever reason) will cause significant problems for humans in the next century (this one is vaguer, rolled into it is whether we can do anything about it if B) is true)

It depends how you define ‘significant’. Even in the worst case scenario the majority of people aren’t going to be that badly affected and for some the gains will outweigh the losses. Taking humanity as a whole and bearing in mind that the majority of the negative consequences are not occurring in the western world then…

If we don’t act – 100%
If we do act – 0% to 90% depending what actions are taken

5 0

Joe Joyce2011-01-02T03:40:25Z

Earth is warming - 99+%
It's primarily our doing - 99+%
percent of "excess warming" attributed to humans - ~80%
It'll be a big problem - 90+%

I figure the first 2 numbers, the pair of 99+%'s, are pretty solid; 100% certainty is for God, and I'm an agnostic. My understanding is that about 80% of the warming is believed attributable to human causes. My impression is that number falls between ballpark and fairly solid, but I haven't done more than run across the number in reading, haven't tried to track it down.

The last number is the important one, and that 90+% is my subjective impression of the likely ways events will unfold. There are far more ways things can go wrong than right. I hope Trevor[?] is right, and the consequences won't be too bad. Humans are, however, capable of monumental stupidities, as we've seen. And this situation invites us to screw up in many ways. It begs for an inadequate response now.

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bruce2011-01-03T12:36:37Z

A 100%
B 75%
C 100%

This is why we need to institute a worldwide reduction of births and birthrate check as the only solution left for us to tackle the enormous problems we are facing and one that will present more problems than we've ever faced in our entire history from natural calamities, disasters, and problems stemming from too many people living on this earth which is the greatest causal factor in climate change and other insurmountable social problems today

There is no other solution but this as everything has become too critical.

http://www.circleforhumanity.net

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Anonymous2011-01-01T23:38:02Z

A) 100%
It is certain that the Earth has been warming. I am 100% certain of that.

B) 100%
I personally am 100% certain that human emissions of GHGs are responsible. I believe that statistically speaking, the certainty is greater than 95%.

C) 100%
I suppose that this one is up to what one considers a significant problem. If you consider migrating beetles destroying forests and freakish weather patterns significant problems, then I'm 100% certain that we are going to *continue* to see significant problems that are due to the warming that we are causing.

_

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How do you rate the chances that these things are true?

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