All atheists and agnostics, I would like your help please. What number would you put on a “miracle”?
To properly set this up, please indulge me with some admittedly lengthy background. (I apologize in advance.) For many, a miracle is defined as an event where the chances of it happening by pure luck are so remote, the only or best explanation is that there really is no explanation, and thus the event is called a “miracle”. For instance, let’s say someone called the Rush Limbaugh show (where millions would be listening and the call recorded), claiming that they could predict the future, and saw that the next day, President Obama would commit suicide by hanging himself in his pajamas in the oval office with a green nylon rope, and his dead body would first be discovered by his youngest daughter, precisely at 4:47 pm. And then sure enough the next day President Obama committed suicide by hanging himself in his pajamas in the oval office with a green nylon rope, and his dead body was first discovered by his youngest daughter, precisely at 4:47 pm. (Assume Law Enforcement rules out any foul play.) I don’t think anyone would claim the caller just made a lucky guess. The chances of making a lucky guess like that would be beyond astronomically low. I believe even the most hardened atheists would admit such an event was inexplicable and therefore could be at least considered possibly beyond the natural.
Sometimes such astronomically low chances can actually be quantified in terms of a number. For instance, the skeptic organization JREF offers a million dollars to anyone who can perform anything supernatural. One common supernatural claim they often receive is from those who say they have a supernatural ability to determine where water is using a divining rod, and they are never wrong. So JREF puts their abilities to the test. ...
... The first preliminary test they are presented with before being considered for a controlled challenge where real money is on the line is simply ten canisters, some filled with water, where the claimant is asked to determine which canisters have water and which ones do not. The probability (P) of getting them all right is easy to calculate as it is one out of the number two raised to the power of the number of canisters (2^N). ...
... In this case P = 1/(2^10) or 1/1024, meaning that the dowser has a 1 in 1024 chance of getting them all right, just by pure guessing and good old dumb luck. Although 1/1024 is improbable, it’s not impossible. People win the Powerball Lottery where the chances of winning are one in 300 million. So far, the best anyone has ever done with JREF’s preliminary test is getting seven out of ten right, and thus no one has proceeded further to trying for the big million-dollar prize. ...
My question is how many canisters would a claimant need to identify correctly for you to concede his abilities are inexplicably beyond the natural and thus must be supernatural. Assume whatever needed controlled conditions are in place that would satisfy you that cheating was impossible. Below are some numbers to help put things into perspective.
2^30 = about 1 billion (meaning the chances of guessing 30 canisters all correctly is about one in 1 billion)
2^40 = about 1 trillion
2^63 = 7.5 x 10^18 (estimated number of grains of sand in the world)
2^168 = 4 x 10^50 (estimated number of atoms in the world)
2^266 = 10^80 (estimated number of atoms in the known universe)
I recognize any number is subjective and an opinion, but I just wanted to get a rough gauge as to when atheists would at least raise an eyebrow and concede something is going on beyond the natural realm. So again, what correctly-guessed canister number N would for you, cross the threshold from the natural to the supernatural? Thank you for your help.
P.S. JREF has a number. I'll let you know what there number is after I receive a good sample size of responses.
Athee-evo guys and girls, do you know that JREF is a world famous atheist organization? They put their money where their mouth is, and thus have come up with a number that would convince them something beyond normal is going on. There is no shame in doing that. All I’m asking is your opinion of what that number should be. ...
... Maybe my question should have been why is JREF willing to take an objective stand on when something paranormal has occurred, but the athee-evos in this forum are scared to death to do the same thing? Look, I have neither brought up God nor hell once in this entire question. There is no need to get all scaredy-cat and defensive. Just relax. What is so scary about providing a number like JREF does?