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All atheists and agnostics, I would like your help please. What number would you put on a “miracle”?
To properly set this up, please indulge me with some admittedly lengthy background. (I apologize in advance.) For many, a miracle is defined as an event where the chances of it happening by pure luck are so remote, the only or best explanation is that there really is no explanation, and thus the event is called a “miracle”. For instance, let’s say someone called the Rush Limbaugh show (where millions would be listening and the call recorded), claiming that they could predict the future, and saw that the next day, President Obama would commit suicide by hanging himself in his pajamas in the oval office with a green nylon rope, and his dead body would first be discovered by his youngest daughter, precisely at 4:47 pm. And then sure enough the next day President Obama committed suicide by hanging himself in his pajamas in the oval office with a green nylon rope, and his dead body was first discovered by his youngest daughter, precisely at 4:47 pm. (Assume Law Enforcement rules out any foul play.) I don’t think anyone would claim the caller just made a lucky guess. The chances of making a lucky guess like that would be beyond astronomically low. I believe even the most hardened atheists would admit such an event was inexplicable and therefore could be at least considered possibly beyond the natural.
Sometimes such astronomically low chances can actually be quantified in terms of a number. For instance, the skeptic organization JREF offers a million dollars to anyone who can perform anything supernatural. One common supernatural claim they often receive is from those who say they have a supernatural ability to determine where water is using a divining rod, and they are never wrong. So JREF puts their abilities to the test. ...
... The first preliminary test they are presented with before being considered for a controlled challenge where real money is on the line is simply ten canisters, some filled with water, where the claimant is asked to determine which canisters have water and which ones do not. The probability (P) of getting them all right is easy to calculate as it is one out of the number two raised to the power of the number of canisters (2^N). ...
... In this case P = 1/(2^10) or 1/1024, meaning that the dowser has a 1 in 1024 chance of getting them all right, just by pure guessing and good old dumb luck. Although 1/1024 is improbable, it’s not impossible. People win the Powerball Lottery where the chances of winning are one in 300 million. So far, the best anyone has ever done with JREF’s preliminary test is getting seven out of ten right, and thus no one has proceeded further to trying for the big million-dollar prize. ...
My question is how many canisters would a claimant need to identify correctly for you to concede his abilities are inexplicably beyond the natural and thus must be supernatural. Assume whatever needed controlled conditions are in place that would satisfy you that cheating was impossible. Below are some numbers to help put things into perspective.
2^30 = about 1 billion (meaning the chances of guessing 30 canisters all correctly is about one in 1 billion)
2^40 = about 1 trillion
2^63 = 7.5 x 10^18 (estimated number of grains of sand in the world)
2^168 = 4 x 10^50 (estimated number of atoms in the world)
2^266 = 10^80 (estimated number of atoms in the known universe)
I recognize any number is subjective and an opinion, but I just wanted to get a rough gauge as to when atheists would at least raise an eyebrow and concede something is going on beyond the natural realm. So again, what correctly-guessed canister number N would for you, cross the threshold from the natural to the supernatural? Thank you for your help.
P.S. JREF has a number. I'll let you know what there number is after I receive a good sample size of responses.
Athee-evo guys and girls, do you know that JREF is a world famous atheist organization? They put their money where their mouth is, and thus have come up with a number that would convince them something beyond normal is going on. There is no shame in doing that. All I’m asking is your opinion of what that number should be. ...
... Maybe my question should have been why is JREF willing to take an objective stand on when something paranormal has occurred, but the athee-evos in this forum are scared to death to do the same thing? Look, I have neither brought up God nor hell once in this entire question. There is no need to get all scaredy-cat and defensive. Just relax. What is so scary about providing a number like JREF does?
12 Answers
- Anonymous5 years agoFavorite Answer
By your definition, what you call 'miracles' are called coincidences by most people.
High odds against something (winning a lottery) are not impossible odds,
A miracle is defined by defeating the laws of nature. Which doesn't happen.
Raising the dead to live again for instance. Never happened.
Miracles are magic, and magic is illusion, a parlor trick.
- 5 years ago
It's rather unusual for YOU to ask atheists and agnostics for help.
As another responder said, a true miracle would necessarily defy the laws of nature. Your use of odds in determining a miracle is hardly valid. Odds merely state the probability of a particular thing happening. The fact that there are such odds shows that that thing happening is not impossible.
I myself have had several things happen that seem to be highly against the odds.
For example, how often do you hear or read the word "quintessential". Not very often I dare say. In fact, I can say that there has occasionally been a period of more than a year or even several years when I never heard or read that word, and you could probably say the same.
However, a few years ago I was reading an article in Scientific American while the TV was on. As I was reading the article, I read the word "quintessential" and, at EXACTLY--and I MEAN exactly--that same moment I read that word, the person talking on the TV said "quintessential".
Now, what are the odds of that? The point is that just because something is against the odds, that does not make it a miracle. Coincidences happen all the time, even if you are not aware of them, and a vast number of them are against the odds, even if you are not aware of them.
Again, I have also had a few other occasions in which other coincidences highly against the odds occurred. But I have never considered them to be miracles.
Now, has this atheist helped you in putting a number on a miracle? Or not, as the case may be?
- DIGIMANLv 75 years ago
WHY CERTAIN MIRACLES NO LONGER OCCUR
Various kinds of miracles are mentioned in the Bible. (Exodus 7:19-21; 1 Kings 17:1-7; 18:22-38; 2 Kings 5:1-14; Matthew 8:24-27; Luke 17:11-19; John 2:1-11; 9:1-7) Many of these miracles served to identify Jesus as the Messiah, and they proved that he had God’s backing. Jesus’ early followers displayed miraculous gifts, such as speaking in tongues and discernment of inspired utterances. (Acts 2:5-12; 1 Corinthians 12:28-31) Such miraculous gifts were useful for the Christian congregation during its infancy. How so?
Well, copies of the Scriptures were few. Usually, only the rich possessed scrolls or books of any sort. In pagan lands, there was no knowledge of the Bible or of its Author, Jehovah. Christian teaching had to be conveyed by word of mouth. The miraculous gifts were useful in showing that God was using the Christian congregation.
But Paul explained that these gifts would pass away once they were no longer needed. “Whether there are gifts of prophesying, they will be done away with; whether there are tongues, they will cease; whether there is knowledge, it will be done away with. For we have partial knowledge and we prophesy partially; but when that which is complete arrives, that which is partial will be done away with.”—1 Corinthians 13:8-10.
Today, people have access to Bibles, as well as concordances and encyclopedias. Over six million trained Christians are assisting others to gain divine knowledge based on the Bible. Thus, miracles are no longer necessary to attest to Jesus Christ as God’s appointed Deliverer or to provide proof that Jehovah is backing his servants.
Source(s): THE BIBLE AS A MIRACLE :) - Martin TLv 75 years ago
If I saw an extraordinary number of correct guesses I would assume that something strange was going on. However, I would not automatically assume that it was 'going on beyond the natural realm.'
It could be the action of a clever conjurer.
Or of some new effect just a little beyond the understanding of current day science.
PS
I have not given an actual number because calculating it would be a lot of work with statistics, my least favorite area of mathematics. I would probably use Bayes' theorem
PPS
I notice that you have not bothered to give the number that JREF used, as you promised. The details are no longer on their website.
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- Anonymous5 years ago
No way. First, I would assume the caller murdered Obama and made it look like a suicide, especially since he called Rush Limbaugh. Then I would assume it was a lucky guess. Your definition of a "miracle" is pathetic. These things are all possible and obey the laws of physics. Unlikely events happen on a daily basis. Just because something has a low probability doesn't make it supernatural.
- PeterLv 65 years ago
HOW they did it is just as important. perhaps the diviner feels a physical push in their arms? maybe this shows that their are highly advanced invisible aliens moving his arms, and they REALLY want people to believe dowsing water is real.
Almost any explanation is more likely that something supernatural happened.
so i would proberbly say no amount of N would matter.
it is very difficult to say though. but if i really saw undeniable evidence of supernatural things, i would be happy to accept it.
- MoLv 75 years ago
If you think I'm going to read all your rubbish on a subject I don't believe in..you are wrong....idiot
- the big manLv 55 years ago
you havent emailed me,you make a statement about how cowardly i would be in front of god and you dont give me a chance to respond.i would say its you that is the coward
