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When will the United States no longer be a world power?
I don't mean this from an anti-American perspective.
All nations have their ups (and we, Americans, are certainly having one now) and their falls. Thats why I want to ask this question in History.
I can think of two scenarios, a rise to dominance by China (possible, but not inevitable), or a fall caused by internal US problems. Personally I think something internal will eventually get us.
What do you think?
11 Answers
- Professor BeatzLv 62 decades ago
To nietzsche: don't you think if it came to that, it would be China that was screwed? We have material wealth exported from the Chinese industrial sector; they would be holding worthless bonds. The downside in the crash of the bond market here is that we would no longer be able to borrow to cover our debt; but then, neither would they, since so much of the value of their national wealth is based in holding US bonds that would become worthless overnight. Hence, no one would want to lend to China, because China would suddenly become insolvent (not that they need to borrow today, but in a Cold War scenario, they's lose the US as their biggest market and no longer have the ability to remain solvent without borrowing most likely). Their financing our debt is precisely why China will not want to see it come to a Cold War. And as for a bona fide war, they boast superior numbers, but we still have a more powerful and sophisticated military with no one else even on the horizon to eclipse us.
My answer is that it is only in the unforseeable future. I don't think there's some timeline after which we'll run out of gas. Any major problem in the US that would challenge our global hegemony would have to be very isolated, like a natural disaster that crippled a region--say, a massive drought in California, a major disaster in the NY area, an epidemic disease, or most likely, some combination of such events straining our ability to withstand it. Such things cannot be predicted.
- dr_ibad_khanLv 62 decades ago
History tells that this will happen. Twin Bee, a legend in the history has proved it in almost a scientific way. The question is when?
A close study of world history besides other suggests to a super power cease to be a super power when other nations acquire achievement in a field different from that of the super power. Egyption applied sciences were beaten by Greek philosphy, Greeks were beaten roman war technology. Romans were beaten by Muslim pure sciences. Muslims were occupied by European mechanical sciences. Europe is under defeated by the USA through computer technology. Luckyly computer technology of USA has further gained support from communication technology. It is deficullet to preduct what will be the new field of improvement but present fields seem to have gained their full maturity. As long as the present field remain on the top, the USA seems to be the world power subject to the condition that nothing internal is involved.
If we review our search for history it will be interesting to note that internal problems of the super power and achievements of others in new fields go parallel. I think present society of the USA is fragile to internal problems through a minute internal spark.
China is much being considered as a substitute, it may be! However, succes of China, European Union or any other will not be based on its Economic prosparity. Actually this is a narrow vision and a prototype judgement or in other words viewing others from one's own glasses. Actually this prototype judgement and single headed assesment of the super power helps other to excell in other fields and thus get at the top.
This may be baseless and totally wrong but many think that the 'spark' has germinated for collapse of American power.
- 2 decades ago
An eclipsing of the United States is inevitable; it's just a matter of time. Yes, China is likely, by current economic trends, to have the largest economy (measured by GDP) in the world by about 2030. The smart prepare themselves for this very real possibility. We must then concern ourselves with the kind of state China is, rather than our position relatively - as the childish mind does.
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- 2 decades ago
Dominence of China and internal issues are related. We have borrowed more money from China to cover our war debts than any other nation. If we enter a Cold War with them they can ask for their money back at which point the US will be bankrupt.
- Anonymous2 decades ago
if one looks at the fall of rome it was a combination of things. Internal politcal strife caused by the absorbtion of conquered peoples in addition to weak leadership and basic petty politics weakened Rome internally. Also the Roman military was faced with being stretched thin due to having to defend its borders from the germanic and other military forces. This combined with weak internal situations spelled Rome's doom. if i were to play prophet I would say the fall from prominence of the us will follow a similar pattern. south east asia and china are rising to economically putting outside pressure on the us. I personally see the mediocre (considering our peaceful and prosperous status) school test scores as a growing internal weakness that, combined with the outside economic pressures could sufficiently weaken us enough to cause us to decrease in world prominence
- 2 decades ago
Well considering how polarized the nation has become a civil war wouldn't be completely inconceiveable. But I say external is more likely especially with China and North Korea hanging around.
- zaxton6Lv 52 decades ago
i think the us will always be a major world power at least for the next 400 years
- 2 decades ago
when power becomes inconsequential.
In other words when we refuse to allow it to be a part of our game.
http://www.infiniteplaythemovie.com/
Play with the rules not within the rules.