What is the chance that Barack Obama will be the next President?

next president- Slim to none. No experience, little name recognition outside of Dems- won't sell in the heartland and south. Maybe VP material.

A future president- I would say he has a 50% shot (pretty good) of someday being president if he does not blow it. He is smart, charismatic, and has a lot of political power already.

Pretty high. Barack Obama is currently riding a huge wave of momentum.

Many people around the country are tired of George Bush and the Republican direction. That was proven out in November's elections where the Democrats won control of the Congress. Therefore, the Democratic candidate currently has a very good shot at being the next president.

Obama's main competition is Hillary Clinton, of course, who is currently the front runner for the Democratic party nomination. Obama's primary draw is his inspiring oratory. He has thus far made his apparent candidacy a message of hope. His other strength is also a weaknesses. Being a fresh voice is attacked as being not as experienced. He said he has always been against the Iraq war but he was not yet a Senator when the vote to invade Iraq took place.

Will Obama be able to defeat Clinton in the primaries? I personally think so. Obama's side will point out that Lincoln and Kennedy's relative inexperience before each was elected president. Barack Obama has enough charisma to unite people. Hillary Clinton doesn't appear to have the same kind of charisma. People tend to have strong opinions about her, either positive or negative.

Just so we get this out of the way. I am a white mother age 45 holding BS in mathematics. I graduated 10th in my class.

Having said all that it is hard to predict at this point where Mr. Obama will be politically in the next election so early in the process. Yes, he is very fresh in the game. No, we have no idea what is in his closet. I believe that will all be flushed out within the next year. Based upon my limited knowledge of the man, he appears to be a breath of fresh air. Clinton is corrupt in my opinion. I believe we will have a democrat in the white house regardless of who is running, just because the American people are so fed up with the war and the lack of progress. Our service men and women are in the middle of a religous war over there, and that could continue on indefinitely. I see no real progress being made in that situation no matter how many troups we send in. The vote for president will be based largely on "getting the message across" i e emotional voting. I would love to say that skin color would have nothing to do with who people vote for, but this will be a factor if Obama gets the nod from the democratic party. I will be switching parties for the primary, simply because I know that every vote counts, and the democratic primary will be so crutial for the upcoming presidential election. I would urge everyone reading this comment to be very careful when selecting who you would have to represent you in the white house. Carefully consider their background credentials, their integrety, and honesty. We need elected officials that have our, and our country's best interest at heart, and the capacity and determination to make right choices under difficult circumstances.

Do you like Horse Racing? Have you heard of a sleeper horse? Or a dark Horse? Or how about to split into three parties the odds are better for the odd man out. Political history? The mayoral election between Jane Byrne, (first woman mayor of chicago), Richard M. Daley, (son of Richard J. Daley Democratic Party Chairman) and Harold Washington the first Black male mayor if elected? All three were Democrats and all three ran against each other and Harold Washinton won? They could have a sleeper of another nature in the primary besides Hillary and Obama? We won't know until the announcer says"And there off"

spectacular now there are in user-friendly terms polls pitting him against fellow Democrats and this became earlier his respectable fact. I actual don't comprehend what his probability is yet i for my section wish they are going to be stable. we want a metamorphosis and we've considered what Washington insiders have carried out so a techniques, Bush tried to declare he had no longer been one yet he had his Dad's help so in essence he became an insider. Be that because it could, that's going to matter in many situations on his platform and his charm to the various all colorations and events. I basically shop thinking that our worldwide status is interior the rest room, each guy woman and infant in this usa presently owes over 28,974.40 4 in direction of servicing the debt this present day president has run up. There were no exams and balances. we want a metamorphosis and the previous guard has have been given to bypass. To me featuring any accessible Bush, Giuliani, Clinton, Hunter, Biden et al who've made rumblings of working.

First of all... I'm black... Okay, that's out of the way.

When I first heard that he might be running, I thought to myself, there's no way he's going to win. Now... I think he seriously has a good chance for several reasons.

a) Oprah. Oprah hyped this dude up back when he was running for senate. I mean this with all seriousness... Do you have any idea the amount of power that one woman has over people? It's kinda scary. Oprah has assured him the votes of a huge chunk of the population.

b) His Demeanor. He has a strong presence about him. We're fighting over in Iraq, Afghanistan and maybe somewhere else soon so that demeanor will be attractive to people. Compared to the other politicians he has this, "Don't f*ck with me." type of thing going or like, "If I said it, I meant it." thing. This is not because he's black... it's just the way he carries himself. Very strong appearance that will appeal to people. Especially after having a comedic cowboy in office for the past few years.

c) People think his skin color will limit him. I don't think so at all. Nobody goes with you inside the voting booth. When people are around friends, family, social settings... they'll use racial slurs and talk down minorities. But if you talk to them in private... usually it's completely different... with the older people that actually care enough to vote. They probably wouldn't feel comfortable eating dinner with him, lol... But I do think they would elect him in the voting booth in privacy.

d) He's not dirty. That maybe one of the things that will hold him back when it's time to vote but could also benefit him. He doesn't have any skeletons in the closet and his childhood conditioning is admirable.

That's all I can think of.

The best way to answer that question is to look at the odds. The collective wisdom of the people is a good predictor of the chance of winning.

The odds on Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate is 4.4, which is a 23% chance.

Then he has to win the actual election, of course, Democrats are given 55% chance (odds 1.8) of winning.

23% x 55% is around 13%. So his chances are probably 10-15% right now.

A Canadian perspective: He seems to be very educated, moderate, not too far off in his ideology and just a like-able person that American voters can get behind. In the U.S. there seems to be 2 kinds of voters, educated and the majority. The educated people in the U.s. will probably fore go, and I mean probably, their fears of electing a black American for President. The majority of U.s. citizenry won't have the balloons to vote for a black American president. It seems that as long as he can obama will not play the race card, but as soon as he is behind in the polls, i.e. to Hillary then he won't have any other recourse.

Long story short, as much as it would be great to get someone like obama to breathe some fresh air into u.s. politics, his chances are slim to none.

Sorry my Yankee brethren.

He makes me proud to be an American.

I'd say he has a gooooood shot. It depends on the American people, though. If the populace thinks that America needs a woman president, he would lose.

His chances are very slim. The American politicians, it woould seem, are not yet ready for African American presidant, and therefore all sorts of arguments and reasons would be used to oppose him.

The American public, on the other hand, might give him the chance, if he manges to reach the national contest, between the Republican and the Democrats.

Thats said, I believe he should try his luck within the Democrats, even if its for testing the water only!