remember when gas prices were through the roof? do you see exxon as a nearly guaranteed investment to make $$$

I would never put "most of my 401k" in any ONE stock. You are asking for Enron type trouble.

Yes, Exxon is high right now, but what goes up, must come down. The way to wealth is not to buy when a stock is high. Lots of people found this out with tech stocks in the early 2000's. They bought high figuring if the companies had increased this much it was a sure thing. They lost their butts. I still have friends that have not made make all the money they lost on the tech stocks.

I wouldn't risk my future on a company that is determined to keep us living in the past. New and different energy sources are where we are going, if Exxon doesn't change it's focus, within 50 years or so I doubt their stock will be "uber high" much longer.

And, final note, DIVERSIFICATION in investing is the ticket to security. Don't put all your eggs in one basket applies.

I usually don't make blanket statements, BUT in this case...You'd be insane to buy Exxon for a retirement account right now.

Exxon and every other oil stock did well from about 2002 to 2007. A large factor has been that the U.S. President has intimate family and business ties with big oil interests (heck, he's from Texas!). The last time oil prices were this high? During his father's presidency. See a pattern?

Since last August, oil prices have plunged from $70 to $50 a barrel (around $55 now). You don't have to track oil prices, though - just look at prices at the gas stations, and you'll see that prices have come down already quite a bit. Last year prices rose so much on global uncertainty like Iranian nuclear negotiations, Nigerian strikes and terrorist activity, uncertainty in the war in Iraq, etc. A lot of concern over that has died down, so prices have dropped. They are unlikely to recover before the end of the Bush presidency, unless he massively increases the war in Iraq (which he's currently trying to do).

If you buy a stock long-term, you have to think long-term. What will raise gas prices? Yes, China and India. But China is opening a new coal mine a week, and designing plans for hundreds (yes, hundreds) of nuclear reactors. I don't know about India.

War can also raise gas prices, but unless terrorists hit America with a nuclear bomb or the next President is Jeb Bush, you're unlikely to see a war that lasts long enough to significantly raise gas prices for years.

Furthermore, if oil prices stay above $30 per barrel, producing oil from oil shale and oil sands is profitable - Canada, Venezuela, and the United States EACH have reserves of oil in these forms equal to (or exceeding) the reserves of Saudi Arabia (the current #1 oil producer in the world). This will set a price ceiling on the price of oil for the long-term. And don't forget that there is enough coal in the world to power it for at least 150 years.

One of the few advantages of global warming is that winter oil demand will drop significantly - and most of the most developed nations have cold winters.

Further out, all this talk of global warming will eventually channel enormous amounts of money into alternative fuels, like fusion, hydrogen cells, wind and water power, etc., reducing the demand for oil.

These are the kinds of things you have to consider when you buy a commodity stock like Exxon, whose value is based on an underlying commodity like oil, wheat, or anything else without a brand name. You're making a long-term bet on the value of a commodity. That's stupid unless you're a expert. I could be wrong in my analysis. The point is that you don't know that I'm wrong, and if you don't know, why risk most of your money on it?

For a 401k account, read books by Peter Lynch, learn value investing, teach yourself investing (a good system is CANSLIM), or buy a no-load low-expense S&P 500 mutual fund.

Don't make a single long-term bet on a whim without knowing everything about what you're doing.

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Sounds like a plan.