When they poll 1000 or 2000 people to see who they are voting for...?

It has to do with the normal distribution. Basically what the normal distribution says is that if you had 100 marbles in a a jar and 10 of them are yellow. If you selected 10 from the sample and 2 of them are yellow what are the odds that 20% of the marbles are yellow, and what are the odds that 30% are yellow, and what are the odds 10% are yellow.

If the odds are that 95% of the time when you select 10 marbles from the sample and the actual percentage is within 1 then we say that the margin of error is 1 and that the odds of being correct are 95%.

Oddly the larger the number in the total population the smaller the sample has to be to be correct.

Notice that we are only 95% certain that our sample is within 1. There is a 5% chance that you are COMPLETELY wrong. Example, if you do this sample enough times you will eventually sample 10 marbles at random and get all 10 yellow marbles.

To give you a small idea how the math is done. If we increase our sample size to 11 there is no chance at all of us getting 11 yellow marbles. We are absolutely certain that not all of the marbles are yellow with a sample size of 11. We are also 100% certain that at least 10 are yellow. We have to calculate the odds of any other outcome given the sample.

To make it any clearer, I need to show you a picture of the normal distribution and be able to point to the different parts.

The problem that I have with polls is that they never tell you what percentage of certainty they got to. That is are they 95% certain that the margin of error is within 1 or 90% certain, or 75% certain. You increase your certainty by increasing your sample size.

A common problem with people reading polls is when the poll says that A is ahead of B by 1% and the margin of error is 4% what they are really saying is that they have no idea who is ahead. It is exactly as likely that B is ahead by 3% as it is that A is ahead by 1%.

Pollsters CAN and WILL SPIN the numbers to GET the RESULTS that THEY WANT !!!

We need to make sure that the person that represents AMERICA is PRO-AMERICA !!!

WE NEED to make sure that EVERY man, woman, and child, KNOW how ANTI-AMERICAN Obama and his Reverend(S) ARE !!!

Would a CONTINUAL 20 years of "second hand smoke" have a negative affect on the other people in the area ??

Would a CONTINUAL 20 years of "Anti-American Preachings" have a negative affect on the other people in the area ??

John F. Kennedy, a Democrat, was sworn in as the 35th President of THE United States of America, at noon on January 20, 1961. In his inaugural address he spoke of the NEED for ALL Americans to be ACTIVE CITIZENS, famously saying, "Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country."

Please NOTICE that it said DEMOCRAT - NOT Socialist and / or Communist Democrat !!

It means this country is only as strong as the people in it. It means get off your a$$ and do something!!!

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The Democratic Elite make the rules and then they change them for their convenience !!

The Elite Democrats feel like THEY know better than YOU who would be the best person to run the country !!!

By the People and For the People !!!

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Democrats have to recognize that since the 73rd Congress in 1933, for a majority of the last 65 years, Democratic Houses of Representatives and Democratic Senates have CONTROLLED the nation and the President. A TOTAL of 38 Sessions with Democrats in CONTROL for 28 of those!

WE need to inform/TELL our political representatives that WE NEED TO PASS a Constitutional Amendment for the LINE ITEM VETO.

This will keep the SPECIAL INTEREST GARBAGE from being attached to valuable legislation.

If Congress wants to give the president that power, they will have to pass a constitutional amendment, Supreme Justice John Paul Stevens said. "If there is to be a new procedure in which the president will play a different role in determining the text of what may become a law, such change must come not by legislation but through the amendment procedures set forth in Article V of the Constitution," Stevens said, on June 25th, 1998.

IF your special interest is SO valuable, why do you have to HIDE it in valuable legislation?

So, with them REFUSING to PASS the Line Item Veto, in reality, the House and Senate have REALLY been controlling the country!!

AND, with the CURRENT Senate and Congress having the WORST approval rating in HISTORY, hopefully we will see a LOT of changes after the general elections.

A recent Reuters poll is out and Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have pulled an upset: They have managed to make George Walker Bush twice as popular as CONGRESS.

RECENTLY - - JUST 13% of Likely Voters now say the DEMOCRATICALLY CONTROLLED Congress is doing a good or excellent job. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 43% give Congress a poor rating.

Those results represent a slight decrease from last month, when 15% gave Congress a good or excellent rating.

Democrats generally believe in heavy fines for honest work, while rewarding sloth and indulgence.

Do YOU think that people should be able to do absolutely nothing productive and get government hand-outs for sloth and indulgence - healthcare, tobacco, alcohol, drugs, STDs, etc. ??

Do YOU want to have YOUR MONEY TAKEN from YOU and YOUR FAMILY to FINANCE these people ???

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AND ...

OBAMA wants to END WORLD POVERTY on YOUR NICKEL AND SURRENDER THE United States to THE United Nations.

SEARCH the phrase above - OR -

Global Poverty Act S.2433

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each and all the attorneys are there to combat the regulation fits which voters have offered against oh bummer's eligibility to additionally be a candidate...the phony beginning certificates. If a real, genuine beginning certificates exists, why would not the mendacity, racist bigot in basic terms produce it as quickly as and for all????????? that's no longer the oh bummer way; he will deliver interior the costly attorneys to confuse the undertaking and characteristic the fits pushed aside by using fact of stripling technicalities...in basic terms like the Berg one. This unpatriotic bigot has some distance to many secrets and techniques! Vote John McCain, the genuine American. .

You can make a poll say anything you want to by knowing who to ask and what to ask. Example, I can get a poll to say that 95% of Americans say they will vote for a black canidate. i can do this by only asking the black folks in the hood. I could get the same poll to say 100% of Amricans will never vote a black man in, by asking KKK members. So since you never know who they ask and how they worded the question i suggest to you never put much stock in a poll +/- % of trash is still trash

Their Liberals,they have polled 1-2 thousand other Liberals to come up with the results.Can't quite understand why their results do not ever reflect the true American consensus.

There are a lot of factors that go into it such as the sample size, the wording of the questions, the way they the questions are presented, computer modeling,etc.

Numbers be manipulated to say anything you want, so the results are irrelevant.

polls are polls, percentage of error sounds normal

They are not always right