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Myles D asked in Politics & GovernmentElections · 1 decade ago

This is what I have been saying all along - Obama definitely has the advantage?

I have stated in Previous posts over the last few weeks that the problem with the polling is that it excludes cell phone users and College students (Most only have cell phones)

This demographic favors Obama. Given this I thought it was going to be a landslide Victory for Obama when he was significantly ahead before. And although now that the race is closer, Obama still has the advantage because of all the Young Democratic Voters not included in any polls. What do you think? And will the Victory for Obama be even greater than anticipated?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080925/ap_on_el_pr/po...

Update:

Combining polls it conducted in August and September, Pew found that of people under age 30 with only cell phones, 62 percent were Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. Among landline users the same age that gap was narrower: 54 percent Democrats, 36 percent GOP.

14 Answers

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  • ?
    Lv 7
    1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    Very good point.

    I wondered where the pollsters were finding all these McCain supporters. I haven't actually met any.

  • There are two major factors that will hurt Obama.

    A) College kids, while they may register because of pushes on college campuses, the final turnout is always far lower than expected. It's always that way.

    B) White Democrats in the rust belt. The media is touting racism (even though Obama has 95% of the black vote) but it is becoming a factor that white democrats there and in the south won't vote for him.

    And if you believe the polls, you need to make sure of the sampling. Last one I saw was by the Washington post and it was 9% to Obama, but the sampling was 29% republican, 38$ Democrat and 33% independent.

  • 1 decade ago

    Gallup, Rasmussen, and CNN claim they do poll some people with cellphones and have algorithms they say account for the difference(to the best of their ability)

    I think there's some truth to it... but not as much as some people believe. It may be worth 1 pt. nationally(in Obama's favor), but I'm skeptical it's anything more than that.

  • I don't think it will be a landslide, but I DO think more people will turn out to vote DEM then were expected. I think it is likely he will win, but I also will never under estimate the Republicans ability to bounce back no matter how much they fail.

    We are almost there, and nobody can assume that we will win! Get out and vote!

    Obama 08!

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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    You're correct. I am a college student and attend a large university.

    The majority of the students and professors are voting for Obama, and I know myself and my peers are not being polled, so hopefully people do not discount that Obama is further ahead in the polls than we perceive.

  • 1 decade ago

    Well polls hae tightened by Obama pretty much leads in all the polls like literally ALL of them except Gallup: http://www.mofopolitics.com/2008/09/25/its-officia...

  • 1 decade ago

    I would like to take this time to introduce you all to the next President of the United States, "Barack Obama, and new First Lady Michelle Obama.

  • susi
    Lv 5
    1 decade ago

    You actually believe these new young dem voters are doing anything but jumping on the messiah's bandwagon? Do they know about Obama's funding terrorist Ayers for radical school programs in Chicago? Do they all know how thin BO's resume sadly is? Have they any idea that he is most comfortable with radical extremists? and yet you feel he has the advantage? NO, he does NOT!

  • 1 decade ago

    Flat out not true.

    I never use my land line.

    I am conservative republican and I would rather be executed standing up for my country than voting for Hussein Obama.

    Oh and by the way, have you checked all those internet daily polls. Most of them have the race dead even.

    EDIT: Your "proof" only indicates that more liberal socialist democrats answered their phone when PEW called. And yet another statistic manipulated to produce a desired result. I mean I could use those same figures to indicate that the low number of republican respondents means either they were in class or at work while more democrats were collecting their welfare checks or watching the Oprah. Please!

  • 1 decade ago

    Young voters tend to be somewhat apathetic. Unless you can text in your vote it may not matter much...

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