Anyone know of better GW projections from 1988 period?

Question

In 1988, James Hansen and team at NASA made projections regarding how much the 5-year running mean "global surface air temperature" would increase in the future under certain CO2 emissions scenarios.  Their Scenario B seems close, considering the many variables and unpredictables (like volcanoes) over 20+ years.  These projections clearly aren't exact; but, does anyone have clear documentation of any *better projections made at that time?

www.realclimate.org/images/Hansen88_forc.jpg

Dana1981 · Accepted Answer

There weren't any.

In fact, I think Hansen's may have been the first long-term global climate projection ever made.  Considering that he was using models and computing power which are now 20 years old, it's extremely impressive that his projections were almost spot-on.

Jose Bosingwa · Answer

"aren't exact"   ???????

There aren't "better projections" because nobody else made projections.    He's the one claiming that CO2 drives the temperature.    CO2 went up by a lot; temperature went up by a little.   This did not come close to matching the prediction:


http://www.lesjones.com/2009/01/15/james-hansens-1988-global-warming-predictions-vs-reality/


http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/HansensPredictions1988.htm


http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/06/another-assessm.html


http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/cfc_ha45.gif

Richard the Physicist · Answer

CHIRP-CHIRP-CHIRP (thats the crickets)

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Anyone know of better GW projections from 1988 period?

3 Answers