Now that the global average temperature is about to overtake the record set in 1998, do you think that?

Deniers will carry on with their usual faulty information Jello as usual is a prime example yes there has been a lot of snow in e.g. Washington snow records have been set, temperature's have not. temperatures in Washington from the 1st of Feb to date have been quite near the average lows for this time of year

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/city_guides/res...

For reference (-2c) = 28.4F (This is the average low for Washington for Feb)

http://www.weather.com/weather/monthly/USDC0001

For the record low for Washington in Feb is -14F (-26c) nowhere near the temps seen this February.

As for Dr Roy he try's to jump the gun on what is obviously gong to be a high Jan figure when NOAA release their figures in a few days, he try's to argue it is down to warmer sea temperatures, I'm not sure how you can separate warmer sea temperatures from the (global average land and sea temp).

The facts are that several months in later 2009 beat records set in 1998, there is what appears to be, an average El Nino building but this is not much of a comparison to the record El Nino seen in late 1997 and through much of 1998. For all their faults denier groups are not stupid they know that if 1998 is bumped to third spot on the top ten list in the next year or two they have lost their main argument (X years of cooling) which is why the sudden increase in the smear campaigns against both individual scientists and research groups in the last couple of months, the ground work is being laid to try and claim that the new record when it happens is part of "the fraud". Because they are painted into a corner, for years now they have been claiming cooling, when each new year makes the top ten this claim has been made on the basis of 1998 and some sort of drop in temperature since, which if you look at the temperature record is clearly not the case

Richie, do you have a clue what you are talking about? What satellite data are you talking about that shows cooling? Seriously, cite it. I have to call you out because you are perhaps misleading some people with totally wrong information. Roy Spencer is the guy who publishes the regular satellite and weather balloon data. The data is available on his cite. The asker is quoting from the horses mouth. Either you should cite your information or stop posting because you do not understand.

Re Roy Spencer, he never has been a skeptic of AGW. He get lumped in, and quoted by deniers because he believes warming will be much slower than the IPCC predictions. He believes clouds will be a significant negative feedback -- but he has long believed that man is causing warming. It will be interesting to see whether he changes his views on the IPCC predictions now that his own data is showing record heat. Records this year have been long predicted, based on the El Nino pattern. Average temperature was not previously as high a 1998 because of the strong El Nino then. Temperatures will sometime drop below 2010 due to ocean currents, which is why it is important to look at the ongoing trend rather than isolating any single year.

Yah, I thought that global warming stopped because we had snow during the winter! Imagine that! I guess most of the world wasn't that snowy =) [edit] Deniers focus on short-term weather patterns. If yesterdays temperature was 80 degrees, and todays temperatures is 60 degrees, they'd probably declare the the Earth had experienced massive cooling = ) To really understand global warming it is essential to look at the bigger picture. Temperatures will fluctuate from year to year. One cold winter doesn’t refute an overall warming trend.

Actually according to NASA GISS, which in my opinion has the most accurate global temperature data set, 2005 was hotter than 1998.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lr...

They've also predicted there's a good chance 2010 will break the 2005 record.

As for deniers, they've long been attacking climate scientists. Climategate intensified these efforts already, and I suspect as global temperatures continue to rise, they'll keep going after the scientists.

You are still forgetting what the global warming hypothesis is. The hypothesis is that human increases in greenhouses gases will cause significant warming and this warming is a reason to be concerned.

So even if this year breaks the record, it does not prove you right, because for the past twelve years we have had a slower rise in temperatures that what was predicted.

The last time we had such a large spike in temperatures was in 1998 due to a strong El Nino. Currently we are having another strong El Nino, the strongest since 98. This El Nino has peaked. There is a time lag between Nino SST and air temperatures. Historically, after every strong El Nino it is followed by a La Nina. I will not be surprised if temperatures take a dramatic fall later on in the year.

As for prediction by NASA and the Met office about breaking record temperatures. They have been making these predictions for the past couple of years and have been wrong. I predict they will be wrong again.

If it's a human caused global warming it should all be a long term trend not a monthly anomaly, thus the word anomaly.

If evidence for AGW mounts the "denialists" as you call them will merely go along with the science. That's what scientists do. Discrediting scientists and science is what the global warming religion does.

1. an increase in temperature does NOT indicate on it's own it's human induced

2. Warmest year on record was 1935, not 1998 or 2005. (Sorry, 1934, and that is US. I was getting ahead of myself and was going to edit that but there's already comments. I admit my error.)

This is about individual month tropospheric measurements.

Read the rest of Spencer's page and you'll see it doesn't point to a AGW at all.

"It should also be remembered that lower tropospheric temperature anomalies for one month over a small region are not necessarily going to look like surface temperature anomalies."

"The tropics and Northern and Southern Hemispheres were all well above normal, especially the tropics where El Nino conditions persist."

Hello... El Nino, just like last time.

"I’ve determined that the warm January 2010 anomaly IS consistent with AMSR-E sea surface temperatures from NASA’s Aqua satellite"

This suggests the warm month is not related to AGW directly.

3. The NASA bit is from the same GISS who's methods when reverse engineered showed an error that skewed the data.

4. 'Skeptical' sources are not confirming anything. Some are suggesting temperatures may be higher than we've seen in the past.

5. Global-average lower tropospheric temperature is not the same as global average temperature.

This is only more compelling evidence that the truth deniers will stop at nothing, pick items out of context, compare apples to turnips, and cite it as a conclusion.

Nobody is suggesting human activity does not have an influence on climate. But there doesn't appear to be any evidence to suggest that influence is greater than natural ones.

World Meteorological Organization, the Climatic Research Unit, NASA, and others have differing ordering for these warmest years.

a) Say it isn't happening

b) say, however much evidence you give them, that the data are cherry-picked

c) cherry-pick any contrary-seeming data (not hard to find in an intrinsically noisy system)

d) say humans didn't cause it

e) say it's no bad thing

f) say it's too expensive or too late to do anything about it anyway

g) any of the possible 15 binary, 20 ternary, 15 quaternary, 6 5-fold or 1 all-embracing combination of the above.

They're on parade here already!

Edit: and - how could I have forgotten this one - carry on calling the people who disagree with them idiots.

E. F Hutton --

First, it was 1934 and not 1935.

Second, that was only in the US.

Here are the 10 warmest years (global):

2005

1998

2003

2002

2009

2006

2007

2004

2008

1997

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global

If it gets warmer then it has to be man made global warming.

OMG!!!

We still see confused individuals that think 1934 was the hottest year recorded. Stop the madness!