Do most atheists here sound like Jim Carrey?

Among various possible explanations, there are these:-

(1) If the chance of something happening is 1 in N and the number of chances for it to happen is about N or greater, then it is not surprising that it should happen. This is the reasoning behind the Drake Equation. Drake estimated the various values and claimed that there were probably many intelligent civilisations in the galaxy. More recently, Richard Dawkins and Stephen Hawking have both written about it in their books. Stephen Hawking is ready to accept a value of N far higher than the one you quote.

(2) The whole thing was set up deliberately by an intelligent designer, more often called God.

(3) There are a few people around who have seriously suggested that an intelligence other than God was involved in the design.

(4) If intelligence is an essential part of the make up of existence, then the development of intelligent life is just inevitable. This possibility might encompass either or both (1) or (2)

Focusing on the first 2, I have noticed that most people seem to regard one of them as more or less obvious and the other as so absurd that they can hardly understand how any intelligent person could fall for it. Perhaps I should collect some quotes, the 2 views sometimes seem close mirrors of each other.

I have noticed wishful thinking on both sides; one tries to make N as small as they can get away with and the other to maximise it. I notice that you include tilt of the planet, existence of a moon, size of the moon and location of the moon. There has been some suggestion that the Lunar tides and seasonal variation in weather speeded up evolution, but who can say that intelligent life could not have appeared without them? If they are left out, I am not sure how many zeros that would slice off your figure.

The fact is, of course, that any current estimate of N must involve a lot of guesswork. Maybe we will have a reliable figure in the distant future.

I do not know the answer.

So, do you believe that all improbable events are evidence of an intelligent God at work?

When you reverse probabilities like that, methinks it demonstrates your failure to understand the fallacy of such an argument.

To demonstrate what you're doing here:

There are 311,875,200 possible poker hands that can be dealed, given that you lay down five cards. Yet, when you deal any five cards, you're guaranteed to hit one of them, every single time. Isn't it stupid to go back and say "Oh wow, the hand I just got is 1 out of 311,875,200, ergo, a supernatural agency is at work"?

That's precisely what you're doing here. And stop with the pretense, it's clear that you're arguing for an intelligent creator God. Intelligent design is a thinly veiled disguise of theism.

Given a long enough time scale with a sufficient enough events occurring, in a near-infinite, constantly expanding universe, it becomes a virtual certainty that some things which the virtually impossible can happen, so long as the probability does not supersede the trial number.

Secondly, you are repeating the fallacy that evolution is a matter of pure chance. It is not. It follows physical, biological, and mathematical rules that guide it.

Unless you want to show some sources for your cited statistics, I see no reason to take your assertions as truth.

Unless you prove that the emergence of the universe as it is right now has exactly a probability of zero instead of asserting things which you have no justification for, your attempt at apologetics still seems like you're grasping at straws and acting with a false bravado while at it.

Keep it up. It's amusing to see you play a game you don't understand.

QUOTE:

"a molecule bumping into another molecule does not produce a new type of molecule. Look under any microscope to prove that."

You clearly don't know what you're talking about. Molecular collision is how all chemical reactions take place which results in a chemically different molecules.

I'm wondering if you've actually deceived yourself into thinking you're some expert on the nonsense you've said.

Actually what you have written here is complete nonsense.

I'd love to hear how those odds were calculated, for one thing.

Actually I don't care because it doesn't matter. Do you play the lottery? Ever listen to a lottery winner talking about how lucky they were to have one the lottery? I'm sure you've read stories about people calling such a win a 'miracle.' I'm sure you'd count your own blessings if pure chance made you a millionaire overnight. Depending on the lottery, the odds can be astronomical. The odds of winning Powerball in the US, for example, are 1:80,089,128. So if you played one ticket and won, you'd think it was pretty amazing. Lets say you used your children's birthdays to select your numbers, you might think it all fit perfectly and in your whole life you've been destined to win the lottery because you actually won the lottery! Amazing. There are two problems with this. One, it ignores the millions of people who didn't win the lottery and all the special reasons they have for choosing their numbers. Second, and most importantly, if instead you worked at the lottery office, you'd know full well that SOMEONE wins the lottery fairly often. The astronomical odds are only of any particular number selection winning the lottery, not that someone wins the lottery. People win the lottery all the time, despite the astronomical odds. When it comes to truly astronomical phenomena, we're talking about 13 billion years for just one 'winner' to arise. That was us. Get over it.

And this is the proper way of looking at the statistics of improbable things.

Even if the odds really were that high, you're looking through the wrong end of the microscope. We won the lottery. It completely ignores that elsewhere in the universe there are planets that didn't win the life lottery and nebulae that didn't win the planet lottery, etc. You don't have any idea how many permutations have happened that could have resulted in life elsewhere in the universe. You don't know whether or not there are other lottery winners out there. You don't know if there were lottery winners in the past or how many more there will be in the future. You simply don't know.

Also, don't forget that whether a planet forms, whether hydrogen atoms bond or whether life develops are all separate incidents all requiring their own probabilities. As soon as a clump of hydrogen atoms formed strong enough a gravitational field to stay together, the process of nucleosynthesis was a foregone conclusion as was the development of planets, etc.

Your stated "odds for life to spring from lifelessness" as 0 is completely incorrect and wholly ignorant of the state of molecular biology. We have a number of models where this is not only possible but probable and plenty of examples of things that exist in the state between what is considered life and inorganic matter.

In short, from your first sentence to your last, you don't know what you're talking about.

Where else but a planet where intelligent life has evolved could we even be talking about this kind of thing?

Also, the odds of an intelligent designer designing what you have described as so complex and random must be at least as complex and improbable as what you've described. So your argument from improbability fails immediately as the universe existing naturally will always be the most probable option.

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I'm gonna have to go with Jim Carrey.....he truly is a clever man in my opinion, and very versatlile too. I love Will Ferral though...I find him the funniest out of all of them - even just looking at him cracks me up!

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I am an atheist. And yes, people don't understand statistics, including YOU.

Now, let's assume these probabilities that you are feeding us, 1:5,203,106,979,840,000,000,000, 000,000,000... now, that's fine. This is the probability for JUST a materialistic universe to exist, this is how much it costs. Now, how much would it cost for a universe created by a god, let alone the Christian god to be more specific? To make it more simplistic, let's make 1:5,203,106,979,840,000,000,000, 000,000,000 = P(x)

So, for a universe created by the christian god, the probability would be P(god existing), as opposed to P(x).

What do YOU think is more probable? P(x) or P(god existing/coming together from nothingness)? P(x) now seems like picking 1 out of 5 cards... but then again, I don't expect you to understand this.

I have two answers for you

1.) people spend their entire life chasing a prize in lottery that (although it doesn't have THAT low of odds of being won) people don't seem to care. If it matches their belief (that one day they will win the lottery) then they are happy ignoring the fact that they are losing endless amounts of money and not gaining a cent (I play lottery too, but I am just pointing this out, for the sake of proving a point, that it doesn't matter how small the odds are if it matches what you believe.)

2.) Meta-physics. ANYTHING and I do mean ANYTHING can happen in the physical world given the right amount of time and the right conditions

By being able to say that this planet has all the necessary components for life is already biased because youre here. And as for the DNA thats evolution all the species that didnt create correct DNA wouldnt be here because they died out. And evolution is not totally impossible it happens everyday. If a person walks in front of a car on the street and gets hit, they will most likely not pass on the stupid gene, there for that gene will die out. To say evolution is imposssible is ignorant and slightly annoying

(("But the difference is that where as the atheist sees it as just dumb luck and random chance")) You are the one saying that evolution happened that way,biologist have always said that evolution was because of natural selection,which is not random chance. This is the trouble with people who are trying to destroy the TOE, they don't understand it to begin with.

Life evolved to fit the conditions that are on this planet,not the other way around.So all that bunk about the odds of the planet having the right conditions is a load of hooey. Now your statement about the Universe collapsing is not something I've heard. Would you mind giving me a source or did you just pull that out of a hat?

Don't you ever. Ever. Down talk Jim Carrey.

Seriously.