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Do you agree with Gallup’s poll showing 89% of Americans identify the economy as the primary issue of concern?
A related poll shows how differently Democrats and Republicans view the economy under Obama, whose purge of 8.33 million jobs in 2009 and 2010 remains millions down from the workforce numbers in place when he took Office. Gallup’s satisfaction with the way the country was headed poll, incredibly, spiked to 59% approval ratings from Democrats in 2009, 50% higher than Republicans nationally, before ballooning to 55% more approving of the economy and direction of the country during the second half of 2012. Perhaps the disparity might be attributable to the hundreds of metrics and thousands of data points published in the BLS’ monthly Employment Situation Report, which all but guarantees a few select measures hinting at improvement while dozens of others more realistically paint a distinctly different picture. That was the basis for former BLS Commissioner John Hall calling the unemployment rate “deeply flawed” in the run-up to the last election, and former Labor Department Chief of Staff Rick Manning ridiculing the data, suggesting only Obama campaign staff could possibly believe the incredible drop in rates while growth was insufficient to employ newcomers to the job market, much less 90 million Americans separated from gainful employment by November 2012. More than half of college graduates since Obama took the Presidency, including many supporters, understand that only too well, now.
Since the election, information leaked about a handful of BLS survey takers for the Current Population Survey (CPS) having fabricated data by generating phantom responses dreamt up without respondents having answered questions for Census Bureau staff assigned to the CPS. Oddly, only one of five individuals coworkers complained about was investigated, which led to an embarrassing admission from one individual who logged more than three times the survey responses as the average monthly rate for CB staff for more than a year. That translated to hundreds of fabricated responses monthly being acknowledged, while at least four more individuals were implicated for doing the same. Simple math suggests 1500 – 2000 errant responses on around 50,000 to low 50k range could seriously compromise the data. Of course, that revelation clearly supported what John Hall, Rick Manning and the likes of former GE CEO Jack Welch and business magnate Donald Trump claimed.
The good news is that the Department of Labor records real nationwide counts, which are more accurate and reliable than simple survey-based estimates, through the Employment & Training Administration (ETA). Their weekly reports of newly registered claimants for unemployment after job losses have long been considered more accurate than the wide-ranging effort to portray our nation’s employment picture from limited survey responses. On a quarterly basis, the ETA releases a real, fully supported job count from employers’ payroll records with each state. As a result, the two interrelated figures, which have identified largely inarguable job loss counts for decades, and actual employment records based upon employers paying into the UEI system provide the DOL’s best and only comprehensive counts of key metrics showing who’s employed and how many workers suffered job losses. In comparison to surveys, which can be suspect, and the leeway given BLS statisticians handling the data to smooth anomalous, surprising data with seasonally adjusted numbers they see more in line with expectations, the ETA’s real employment counts cannot be overstated for their importance.
A graph of quarterly employers’ payroll counts is posted here, so it’s possible to follow more valid numbers than the BLS survey responses which have suffered data manipulation math savvy individuals have been struck by during the Obama Presidency. Notable on the charts is a dramatic increase in job losses, along with a corresponding loss of total Americans employed during Obama’s first 24 months in Office. From January 2009 through January 2011, more than 8.3 million jobs were slashed from the economy. At election time in 2012, the Obama Administration was down 5.8 million jobs, while 2013 began down 5.2 million for the first modern-day President to turn in job losses across a single term in Office. ETA employers’ payroll counts showed George Bush presided over an economy that added 7.05 million jobs. At this point, entering Obama’s sixth year as President, the Administration has managed a modest comeback to down about 3.2 million jobs from the 133,886,830 Obama inherited from George Bush at the start of 2009. Unfortunately, the 3.2 million job shortage from when he took Office tells only a fraction of the story.
Some 37-40 million new workers sought entry and opportunity for independent adulthood as workforce hopefuls over the past five years. When that’s viewed on top of the cumulative count of 112 million new registrants for unemployment since January 24, 2009, the shrunken economy seems all the more harsh.
It’s not hard to see where the record high 91,808,000 Americans counted as Not In Labor Force have come from. At an 11.25 million increase, that category which removes desperate would-be workers from counts of the unemployed in BLS figures, is the only category having shown significant growth during the Obama Presidency. Keep in mind, Bush had just one month above 7% unemployment during his Presidency (a second, arguably, as a shared month with Obama who was in Office through the data collection begun ten days after the January 9th release of the December 2009 report for the BLS’ January figures released February 6th), while Obama can now lay claim to a single month below 7% unemployed. At the same time, it would be a mistake not to acknowledge that October and December combined were responsible for removal of 1.5 million Americans separated from jobs from the ranks of marginally attached workers counted as unemployed to the rising Americans Not In Labor Force numbers.
The linked Gallup polls remain a key part of the question. A whopping 89% who claim the economy is the nation’s most pressing issue our leaders must address seem to have paid attention. The dramatic difference between Democrats’ and Republicans’ satisfaction with the economy comes in the second poll, which shows a stunning 59% of those responsible for electing Obama satisfied with the punishing loss of 8.3 million American jobs in 2009-2010, while a heartbreaking 52,129,000 former workers registered fully distinct new claims for assistance after jobs and livelihood came to an end. Nothing even close to that level of purge has happened since the Great Depression, but for Democrats, apparently, the most important factor that trumps economy shrinking workforce pain under their cult-of-personality hero was their beloved Community-Organizer-in-Chief occupied the White House. Doesn’t the left have some nobler goal Americans can benefit from than just occupying something?
Is ignoring links and supportive data the best liberals can do to deflect from the punishing job losses that have crippled economic growth for five years now? The graph of the DOL's actual nationwide payroll counts is clear about when and under whom the losses impacted tens of millions of American workers.
The Gallup polls speak for themselves. The question simply reported results from how the American public responded to Gallup's inquiry about issues of greatest concern, along with feelings about the economy, including by Party affiliation. The category midway down the second linked poll report is eye-opening, to say the least. Since the linked results the above question asked about referenced Gallup's poll released January 16th, 2014, and all three polls were to data released last week, it's interesting that one more smoke and mirrors excuse was posted by an Obama fan claiming the Gallup polls aren't somehow current enough.
Thanks for the impressive answer, Karen. Describing personal experiences no one can refute is helpful in support of what some consider arguable premises. Unfortunately, the shortcomings, including intentionally falsified data on CPS surveys, is all too real.
Maybe additional links would be helpful for anyone interested in extra reading. The first goes to one of the better descriptions of fabricated reports for the USCB survey work for the Labor Department. The numbers presented above appear understated, according to Crudele's report. Perhaps it's worth noting that I've worked projects with leadership responsibilities for 70,000 to 75,000 evaluations expected to be completed in a 7-10 day period, with numbers exceeding the CPS survey. Since I'm familiar with such projects and completed post-graduate work in mathematics, I probably look at the statistics differently and more critically than most.
9 Answers
- KarenLLv 67 years agoFavorite Answer
Yes, it is the economy Stupid! Yes, Obama has lied, is lying and is destroy two vital section to the economy to buy votes for the Democratic Party. Insurance and Medical Care. Hospitals, clinics, doctors will soon be force out of business do to the total control of medicine by the ACA.
The Left has designed this fiasco to warp into a single payer plan that has never worked anywhere in the world.
Are you saying the Field Agents for the USCB (Census Bureau) distort the truth on CPS? Not as much as you think. The problem is that People lie to the Field Agents and the administration of agents is very trying. Take the CPS survey, this is a voluntary survey, which selects dwelling units (Homes, apartments, mobile homes, cabins, et al) The survey last 16 months. Someone calls on people in person or telephone and ask data about health, income, ethnicity, education. People are told that they do not have to answer any or all question. I.e. they can refuse. Well, as someone who did refuse; A polite man knocked on the door asked if we received a letter. I replied we did and we choose not to be part of the Survey. A day later, a central casting female bureaucrat, called on us and asked us if the man was rude or did he encourage you not to be in the study because his is rude and lazy. The man was not. We told this crone that he was polite funny and witty. He took our refusal politely and understood. She said that we should be in the study to help the government. We said NO. We called the number on the original letter and told the office that we Refused and not to call again and the while the first representative was polite and understanding, the follow-up woman was rude and surly and treat us as idiots. The following month the crone came back asking us why we refused. We called again. The next month the poor guy was told to see if we were still there. He reported yes, and the crone came back and told us that if we had not met him, she would have gotten the interview (No Way In HELL). We called to complain about her. Lone and short --- We have learned that She is still there and He is not. So the Agents are under pressure to get the answer that their bosses want to hear. A mental health nurse has told me that people in here hospital are also sampled, People who can barely remember their names are also part of the CPS sample. So the field agent is ordered to fill in the data Washington wants. I have learned.from by USMC father and this experience with the USCB, unless it is mandatory under penalty of Law. Never give any information to anyone from the government or the media. For it will be twisted to make a trap of fools. Teach your children never to talk about your family outside the house and to never give data about your work, your income, or your name, or your address unless your are under arrest and if your are the only words you say are: I want my lawyer. TRUST NO ONE!
- ?Lv 57 years ago
The economy is a huge concern of course. But the fact that Obama is in a war against Christianity (if you are Democrat you probably are unaware of this) is the worst thing because that affects everything, the schools, morals, economy and even health care.
- Debra HLv 77 years ago
I do agree the the economy and jobs and no jobs and a lousy healthcare system foisted on us by this idiot president are the main concern of most Americans. The rich, the Hollywood types, all the influential Jews, the poor and the illegal Hispanics... I don't think any of them are worrying at all. Barry takes care of his own.
- ?Lv 77 years ago
Yes. And our government's greatest concerns are gay marriage, minimum wage and immigration. The people should see by this the divide between the American people and government, the people are most concerned with economic issues and the State is most concerned with social issues.
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- GolferLv 77 years ago
The informed voter know the economy will collapse if the left stay in power, the uniformed voter will find out the hard way,
- Anonymous4 years ago
If that were true, Hillary would have won because the economy was great under the Clinton administration. Trump voters didn't vote for him because of jobs - most Trump supporters are, in fact, financially well-off. They voted for him out of hatred for non-Whites and non-Christians, to strip away such people's legal rights and protections.
- Anonymous7 years ago
That can't be true.
Obama's been President for five years now.
Everyone know's he fixed the economy long ago.
- 7 years ago
disagree!! if the economy is even near the top of concern, the issue would be in the plus side!!!
- FirestormLv 67 years ago
Sorry to spoil your rant, but you need to check your facts. Gallup's most recent poll shows the majority of Americans cite government/leadership as primary concern (21%), followed by the economy in general at 18%.