Rocky Mountain Patriot

I suspect I know how conservatives feel about the ugly loss which hits American workers like a throwback sucker-punch body blow, since it’s reminiscent of average job loss counts suffered monthly during the first half of 2009. Keep in mind, the figure released Friday dwarfs all but a single month’s job loss counts under President Bush. And no, I’m not using Bush’s figures settled on months, then years, into Obama’s first term, including almost half-a-million supposed lost jobs added to the survey-based figures when Hilda Solis assumed leadership of the BLS following Commissioner John Hall’s departure in January 2012.

The latest jobs count, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report released Friday morning, shows actual Americans counted in the work force fell by 735,000 during October. As a result of the nearly three-quarters-of-a-million loss, the 58.3% employment-population ratio approached Obama’s 58.2% 40-year lows reached four times between December 2009 and back-to-back summer months ending in July 2011. The workforce participation rate took a similar tumble from 63.2% to 62.8% for the month. Doesn’t quite sound like the Administration’s spun release figures, which a range of journalists buried wherever BLS estimates appeared in the media at all, does it? I’ll provide a bit more detail on the easily found and downloadable 39-page Employment Situation Report.

Household Data Summary Table A shows a loss of 735,000 jobs during the month of October, nearly equaling the losses faced monthly for the first half of 2009 during Obama’s crippling two-year jobs purge. As a group, Democrats squandered their Super Majority with Pelosi and Reid’s 111th Congress, while 8.3 million jobs disappeared. The latest painful loss comes from September’s count of 144,303,000 falling to 143,568,000 total employed in the BLS’ October figures. Elsewhere I’ve shown our economy must add well over 200,000 jobs monthly to accommodate newcomers to the labor force from amongst our own college, secondary, and trade school graduates, along with nearly 1.2 million LPR’s awarded green cards annually, H-1B recipients, refugees & asylees, and our always increasing Mexican National population. For anyone interested here, the highest workforce participation rate belongs to Hispanic males in the U.S. economy at 80.8%, trailed closely by foreign born workers at 78.5%. Our own bred and raised college graduates trail at 75.0%, which considerably outpaces all other native born categories in the civilian labor force.

Over the past 12 months, Black or African American workers have increased by 74,000, while Hispanics gained 443,000 jobs, according to the BLS Report. In comparison, White Americans lost 355,000 jobs on not-seasonally-adjusted figures, or 385,000 on the seasonally adjusted counts since October 2012, which is shown on Table A-2. For anyone willing to parse the statistics in detail, it’s inescapable that the foremost losers under the Obama regime have been White Americans and, at the head of that list, college graduates, a demographic this Administration and many on the left appear to have declared war against. Who’s under attack differs dramatically depending on the racial and ethnic group one is counted in. White Americans have been disproportionately targeted, according to a broad array of government statistics, which show Obama punishing those he feels at odds with when he’s not distanced enough from conservatives seen as skeptics of his fundamental change.

Barry and Michelle strike many in this country like Marie Antoinette who famously dismissed the French peasants’ struggles with an air of superiority and detachment. The Obamas seem similarly detached, and the reality-challenged President shows machinations of a would-be Emperor with his heavy-handed edicts and avoidance of constitutionally mandated checks and balances, which are brushed aside to accomplish transformational change few Americans want by Executive Order.

http://www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/empsit_nr.htm

Let's get some of the irritating untruths and acrimony off our chests. Psychologists claim that's a healthy way of dealing with defusing and attempting to recover from recognizable external sources of anger.

Two of the left's most beloved celebrities, heroes to many for their political opinions, weigh in on the linked video. Do you agree with Morgan and Maher?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLIFeI2wRhw

A song from Jimmy Z offers some alternative possibilities with a range of deceptive messages this Administration has become famous for. While it's likely to go unrecognized at the country music awards, there's a basis listeners should recognize for wording that's more accurate than amusing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJATUl_ot3M

What do you feel are the three most troubling misstatements or cover-ups Americans have been expected to swallow from the President and this Administration’s seemingly endless lies?

http://www.gopusa.com/commentary/2013/10/01/schlaf...

Have Americans recognized yet how dismal and increasingly useless credentials have become with the ugly economy and employers’ avoidance of graduates here in favor of H-1B's, LPR's and illegal migrants for jobs?

Government data shows more than 750,000 H-1B visas having been awarded under Obama, including renewals, in response to employers claiming our domestic workforce hasn't been sufficiently trained for their jobs. The State Department issues this special visa once an employer petitions for, then guarantees a job for the foreign national to secure a coveted H-1B visa that's growing in numbers under Obama's shift from American workers to outsiders his Administration favors.

That doesn't touch the 1.1 million LPR's awarded green cards for each of the President's first few years, which has been upped to nearly 1.25 million more recently. Those on the left in support of increasing immigration numbers who claim national sovereignty is outdated, continue their fight to boost that count to 2 million. For perspective, the highest workforce participation rate according to BLS statistics belongs to Hispanic males who are employed at 81.7% of their recognizable numbers in the U.S. The next highest group of participants is foreign born males, who show a 79.6% workforce participation rate. Lagging behind those prized and almost always working individuals are native born college graduates, including those with masters, doctorates and professional degrees, at a 75.0% participation rate. For the math challenged here, our brightest and best educated home-grown talent lags behind south-of-the-Border newcomers by 6.7% for employment after completing their extensive higher education training.

Pair those puzzling numbers with the loss of 107 million jobs through early October, according to summarized Department of Labor data released every Thursday by the ETA, since January 24, 2009, and there should be little misunderstanding about why nearly three times as many unemployed have been dropped from BLS counts as those returned to work under this Administration. Keep in mind, as well, the Digest of Education Statistics shows just over 3.5 million college graduates, including those with advance degrees, for five successive years now under Obama. Between 1.1 and 1.2 million high school graduates choose to enter the workforce without higher education credentials, and several hundred thousand more are prepped and ready for employment through trade schools annually. With the undergraduate rate of enrollees who never complete degrees ranging from 35 to 38% over the past five years, another million-plus need to be factored into numbers of our age-appropriate newcomers looking for entry into the workforce.

Together, the above data from secondary and post-secondary institutions nationwide, show at least 28 to 30 million of our own young adults seeking jobs since Obama's been in Office. Pair that with the H-1B visa newcomers, the nearly 6 million LPR's, and the increasing, unabated migration across the Southern Border this Administration demands ICE and Border Patrol agents apply "prosecutorial discretion" for (a euphemism for catch-and-release policies without threat of arrest) in place of actual enforcement of laws across the region, and there are another 10 million-plus newcomers desperate for jobs in the President’s painfully shrunken economy.

Back to the ETA real nationwide counts, employers' payroll records showed a workforce of 133,886,830 gainfully employed contributors to the economy in January 2009. That number has come back from 8.3 million jobs lost by midyear 2011 to a total of 129,827,178 in September, which remains 4,059,652 workers down from the workforce Obama inherited. That's right. This Administration remains more than 4 million jobs down on the DOL's verified nationwide counts, which differs from the BLS' survey-based estimates, especially on seasonally adjusted figures, while almost 40 million newcomers were ready and sought entry to the workforce.

Do you think a few are going to be left behind, especially in light of the foreign born workers being hired ahead of our own graduates? It's safe to assume tens of millions of the soon-to-be 107 million experienced workers who filed as new registrants for unemployment after job losses are still in search of survival income. Aren't you glad we're told regularly how the economy has turned and the Obama Administration has worked its magic to provide opportunities for all in his wondrous, impressive economy? Perhaps, somewhere in the President's stoner's mind from years ago, referenced in his autobiographical texts, there is such a thing somewhere for a small percentage of Americans. Maybe we're supposed to be satisfied the American dream is increasingly available to foreigners.

Every month, like clockwork, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the prior month’s jobs data on the first Friday of the month. Amazingly, jobs data didn't appear on any front pages today or as a lead story for broadcast media, and as of Friday afternoon, search engines showed limited reporting of the BLS’ survey-based predictive results.

For those who missed the headline figure, the BLS Seasonally Adjusted estimate of who’s employed showed a disappointing 162,000 jobs added to the economy in July, while May and June had 26,000 jobs removed from earlier months’ estimates. The more accurate Not Seasonally Adjusted count showed a loss of 1,113,000 employed Americans on Establishment Data Table B1 for Total Non-Farm Employment. Since the BLS July SA count comes up short of what’s needed on a monthly basis for our own young adults who’ve completed schooling and/or training programs, together with immigrants and migrant newcomers seeking employment, among the best questions is how can this economy reemploy significant numbers of the 104 million who will have filed claims after job losses during Obama's Presidency through Saturday, August 3rd, 2013.

Observations from the July Employment Situation release will follow with summary jobs data.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in July, with gains in retail trade, food services and drinking places, financial activities, and wholesale trade. Over the prior 12 months, nonfarm employment growth averaged 189,000 per month.

Retail trade added 47,000 jobs in July and has added 352,000 over the past 12 months. In July, job growth occurred in general merchandise stores (+9,000), motor vehicle and parts dealers (+6,000), building material and garden supply stores (+6,000), and health and personal care stores (+5,000).

Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places increased by 38,000 in July and by 381,000 over the year.

Employment in health care was essentially unchanged over the month. Thus far in 2013, health care has added an average of 16,000 jobs per month, compared with an average monthly increase of 27,000 in 2012.

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 2 cents to $23.98, following a 10-cent increase in June. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees remained unchanged at $20.14 during July.

More about who’s employed and who’s left out of the economy appears in the BLS report.

Under the Household Data, Table A-7, Foreign born workers in the U.S. economy show they’re employed at the highest rate of any group in the workforce at 79.6%, and their unemployment rate at 5.7% dwarfs all groups apart from college graduates, advanced degreed and professional workers combined. Since July 2012, foreign born males increased by 214,000 in the workforce, while foreign born females gained 265,000 jobs. Of course, those numbers don’t account for millions of undocumented workers paid under the table and off the books.

Our own native born workers showed an increase of 666,000 jobs for American males, while native born females lost 157,000 jobs overall during the twelve-month period. In direct comparison, the foreign born workers gained 479,000 jobs, while American born workers who gained 509,000 jobs. Using civilian non-institutional population counts from the BLS, that shows foreign born workers taking jobs at nearly six times the rate of our own increasingly college educated workforce. Table A-4 shows our own college graduates with bachelor’s, master’s, professional and doctoral degrees lagging behind the lofty foreign born workers’ participation rates by more than 4.5%. And during July 2013 alone, workers with a bachelor’s degree and higher lost 255,000 jobs on SA estimates, while the NSA counts showed a painful 384,000 jobs lost for our best educated workers.

Household Data Table A-3 shows Hispanic or Latino workers gaining 124,000 jobs on NSA counts, while SA estimates claim a 74,000 increase. Since July 2012, the Hispanic employment growth shows a twelve-month increase of 725,000 jobs overall. Lastly, at 67.2%, the Hispanic/Latino workforce participation rate scores nearly 4% higher than the rest of the nation’s cumulative participation rate numbers. Again, few, if any, undocumented workers who dominate laboring jobs in sanctuary cities across the Southwest are included in the counts.

While the loss of 1,113,000 jobs on NSA counts for July exceeds the worst individual month since the depths of the recession, the 162,000 SA suggested increase comes up marginally short of employing our come-of-age ready new native born workers together with immigrants legal and otherwise combined. The Department of Labor’s ETA counts post the only actual comprehensive nationwide counts of who’s filed claims after job losses, as well as real employers’ payroll record counts on a quarterly basis.

With the latest BLS survey reports suggesting as many as 195,000 jobs may have been added to the economy in June, liberals appear thrilled. An all Democrat led economy hemorrhaged 8.3 million jobs under Obama’s crash and burn losses in 2009 and 2010 before the DOL’s real employers’ payroll record counts at the ETA showed flat numbers for the first half of 2011, then adding jobs at a pace that wasn’t hurting the economy for the first time under Obama in the second half of 2011.

Perhaps for perspective, the real jobs growth of more than 7 million under Bush, which showed 133,886,830 Americans gainfully employed in January of 2009, showed a modest loss after 19 straight calendar quarters of growth at 15,557 during Bush’s final three months in Office. The crushing 8.3 million in actual counted jobs lost didn’t ramp up significantly before the second half of 2009 on nationwide job counts, which showed 8 straight calendar quarters of devastating losses under the economy led by a Democrat super majority Congress and a community organizer with a sketchy past in the Oval Office. Flat quarterly employers’ payroll record growth of just 12,595 in April 2011 ahead of 234,728 at the start of July 2011 on actual ETA counts, rather than survey-based BLS figures, showed the first half of 2011 inching upward for the first time with a modest gain of 247,323 recognizable jobs added to the economy at a pace of 41,220 jobs added monthly across the first six months of the year.

Since economists mostly debate where between 150,000 and 200,000 the economy is providing jobs for new, come-of-age, ready and hopeful entrants to the jobs market, anything less than the numbers of new workers infused into the economy means further losses of jobs overall. With almost 3.5 million college graduates and another 1.2 million high school and trade school graduates who chose not to enter higher education programs annually entering the workforce for a fifth consecutive spring under Obama, verifiable counts of our own nation’s young adults seeking jobs, according to the Digest of Education Statistics has reached about 23.5 million under this Administration. Of course, for young adults who entered college, a substantial percentage never graduate, and while estimates vary and don’t have the accuracy of DES counts, none claim more than 60% graduation rate in four-year degree granting higher education programs. Therefore the 23.5 million entrants from amongst our own young adults is vastly understated. Add to that more than 5 million LPR’s granted green cards, almost three-quarters of a million H1B visa recipients, almost 300,000 refugees and asylees, and the latest wave of 5-7 million mostly Mexican National illegal migrants having crossed our southern border uninvited, the overall growth of ready new workers vaults into a mid-30 million range since the Obama Administration took over in 2009. More honest, real math shows a rate of closer to a quarter-million jobs needed to be added each and every month to keep pace with new entrants to the jobs market.

Since real ETA counts show 102.36 million Americans who’ve lost jobs under Obama, according to new filers, also termed first time claimants, for unemployment after job losses during the ugly economy, how many of that group have returned to work when numbers of jobs is finally nearing almost enough to include newcomers to the workforce desperately seeking work to begin an independent adult life?

With tens of millions of former workers still counted amongst the long-term unemployed or purged from the ranks of marginally attached discouraged workers on BLS figures altogether, how many of the 102.36 million have in any way been restored? And with numbers the left and an unabashed liberal media celebrates, which is close but short of the real number of new jobs needed to add our latest come-of-age entrants and generously increasing immigrant/migrant counts of job seekers to the workforce, how are we recovering from the dreadful losses that remain 4.67 million workers down from the 133,886,830 employed Americans when Obama took Office that shows just 129,204,324 on Department of Labor real counts?

Why would anyone celebrate 195,000 jobs added, using survey-based metrics, no less, and suggest we’re experiencing healthy growth and desperately needed recovery? Those who study the numbers know better. This is an extension of the virtual recovery presented last summer to convince an American electorate the President shouldn’t be denied a second term based on the faltering, moribund economy he’s overseen and addresses simply by pretending it’s dramatically different from what it is to those who continue to feel the pain.

http://www.rockymountainperspective.com/985-millio...

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/06/business/economy...

http://jobs.aol.com/articles/2013/04/05/real-unemp...

This may be the best political parody of the year. And using Obama’s most fervent supporters favorite medium seems to make it all the more powerful and effective. Do you think Remy’s “Tap it: The NSA Slow Jam” deserves serious recognition for YouTube video of the year thus far?

At least such an award would be based on actual performance, rather than the disturbing, oddly deceitful Hope and Change rhetoric that garnered a Nobel Peace Prize for the left’s beloved rock star President four years ago.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedd...

LYRICS (for those who wish to follow along)

You see me rolling around in a black Mercedes

cruising around town and it's packed with ladies

Gotta keep it going yeah I'm roaming the map

No I never stop until I find something to tap

Awww yeah...

[CHORUS]

Nokia, iPhone, Galaxy 3

Facebook and your search history

Gmail, voicemail, I'm gonna grab it

if it's got an on/off switch, baby, I'll tap it

I'm making a list, checking it twice

it doesn't matter the message or even kind of device

Every pic your daughter sends? We've got it ingrained

Why do you think Anthony Weiner wants back in the game?

Surveilling reporters, don't ever forget it

I got so many AP docs you'd think I'm getting college credit

Yeah we're saving your searches, that's just a reality

"Yes We Can" ain't just a slogan it's our view on legality

[CHORUS]

I'll tell you this, sir, I greatly abhor

your violating the Constitution upon which you swore

and a full investigation is needed and more

You ever Google Justin Bieber pics? I yield back the floor...

Look, this is not a big deal? Why are you having a cow?

Look at all these innocent people we can focus on now?

Who cares about civil "rights?" I mean, do we all really need em?

So you'll oppose the individual mandate? Why do you hate freedom?

Look, with front-facing cameras our intel has grown

Look at the video we've collected from this year alone

This is outrageous, we should be able to use the bathroom freely!

Look just the other, wait, hello? Hi. How'd you get this number? Really?

Nothing is private anyway, we're posting on walls

So what's the big deal if the government is saving your calls?

We share our info with companies, this debate should be chilled

Everybody come quick! A straw man has been killed!

So the next time you're up late and you're surfing your phone

Let me reassure you, girl, that you're not alone

But if you don't think the surveillance state is really ideal

Text yourself about it, let us know how you feel.

[CHORUS]

The Department of Labor estimates a broad range of survey-based metrics for employment data through the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), while actual nationwide counts are kept through a sister division, the Employment & Training Administration (ETA). The ETA has kept weekly figures from state administered employment offices for each of our United States for nearly a half century, but the DOL restricts its summary counts to quarterly employers’ payroll figures on the ETA site. Americans who’ve said in poll after poll that jobs and the economy are the issues of most importance to the country seem hungry for real counts and supportable data, rather than seasonally adjusted BLS figures for release, which are just statistically manipulated survey results from individual households and businesses rotated on a four-month basis.

When U3 and U6 rates were slashed last fall with nowhere near the number of jobs added to the economy as those purged from the BLS’ ranks of unemployed and marginally unemployed discouraged job seekers, former Commissioner of the BLS, John Hall, whose four-year stint ended in January 2012, called the figures his former agency released “deeply flawed.” A former Chief of Staff with the Department of Labor went further, when Rick Manning ridiculed last fall’s findings, saying “It appears that Obama has hired infamous Iraqi Information Minister Baghdad Bob to calculate the unemployment rate. Anyone who takes this unemployment report seriously is either naive or a paid Obama campaign adviser.”

In light of what insiders and some highly respected business leaders and economists noted during the purge of more than 5 million unemployed from BLS counts, with little more than 2 million showing up as job growth weighted heavily in part-time positions, the ETA counts should be recognizable as more honest, representative employment figures. After all, they provide the only real, comprehensive counts of the workforce and the nation’s unemployed who’ve filed new claims for unemployment through UEI offices around the country.

The cumulative count for Americans displaced from gainful employment since Obama took the Presidency topped 100 million over the weekend. An official number approaching 100,250,000 will be available once Thursday’s ETA advance report is released for losses counted through the week ended Saturday, May 18th. The almost unthinkable 100 millionth American displaced by Obama’s workforce purge filed the claim the DOL recognized as imminent last Tuesday before adding another quarter million jobs losers through the end of the week.

That count is considered more accurate than anything America’s statistical wizards at the Census Bureau turn out and is as close to indisputable as any the U.S. Government keeps.

There is a caveat, however. The DOL and ETA describe Americans whose income and means of support have disappeared without having paid sufficiently into their states’ unemployment insurance program to qualify for benefits.

While the official ETA data collected nationwide just topped the century mark in millions, more inclusive counts would show that we long ago distanced from 100 million Americans who've lost jobs under Obama. Not all workers are covered by Unemployment Insurance. Those excluded, for example, come from the ranks of self-employed, a significant percentage of commission-based earners, contract and short-term workers, unpaid family workers, workers in a range of not-for-profit organizations, and other small (primarily seasonal) categories which don't pay enough into UI to accumulate benefits. Additionally ineligible are unemployed individuals who've not yet earned benefit rights, disqualified workers whose unemployment is considered to have resulted from their own actions rather than from economic conditions, and otherwise eligible unemployed individuals who don’t file for benefits.

How many more unemployed beyond the 100.25 million the ETA will show in cumulative counts through the weekend do you believe the above categories have contributed thus far, midway into the second quarter of Obama’s fifth year in Office? Keep in mind, the number of workers paying into UEI programs when Bush turned the economy over to Obama in January 2009 was 133,886,830, before Obama’s ugly purge slashed 8.3 million jobs after taking Office through mid-year 2011. The latest May 2013 employers’ payroll count shows 129,204,324 American workers, which remains 4.67 million down from the number the President inherited 4 ½ years ago. Incredibly, some 30 million newcomers from amongst the nation’s secondary and higher education graduates, legal immigrants (LPRs), and not-so-legal migrants sought gainful employment as new entrants to the workforce during Obama’s first term. This month and June combined should add another 4.5 million graduates to that count in search of work.

http://www.rockymountainperspective.com/985-millio...

The Department of Labor’s Employment & Training Administration (ETA) will show 99.9 million first-time claimants for unemployment under Obama’s sluggish economy through Saturday, May 11, when the data is released in a couple of days. At the pace it’s been shedding workers, it appears the 100th million new registrant for unemployment probably applied for assistance after suffering the milestone job loss today.

An April Rasmussen poll showed the economy and jobs came out first and third, respectively in a poll seeking Americans’ opinions about the issues of greatest concern to the nation. Similarly, Gallup’s May 8th poll showed jobs and the economy both scoring 86% atop the list of issues voters felt our nation’s elected officials needed to focus on.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/pol...

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/2...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/162176/workers-predicti...

Amazingly, Obama’s jobs statistics compared against Bush numbers through the New Year showed 107,600 more jobs lost on average across each of his 205 weeks in Office at the close of 2012, while months with 31 days counted 495,000 more jobs lost than comparable months for Obama’s predecessor, which clearly contradicted votes cast when the President was reelected for a second term. At election time, the difference in jobs lost monthly averaged more than a half million more for Obama’s shrunken economy than suffered the same separation from jobs and income under Bush.

While the ETA actual counts of employers’ payroll data nationwide remains 4.67 million down from the total number of employed Americans when Obama took Office, with 30 million ready, come-of-age new workers seeking employment during the four year period, the fall from 133,886,830 in January 2009 to 129,204,324 in the latest counts as of April 2013 shows why the economy and jobs top Americans’ list of concerns.

Since cumulative counts of jobs lost will show 99.9 million Americans separated from gainful employment under Obama through Saturday, May 11th, I’ve asked for opinions here in Y!A for which day this Administration will officially reach its 100 millionth new registrant for unemployment. The math suggests Tuesday, May 14th as perhaps the most likely day, while it’s sure to be reached by or before the am on Wednesday the 15th.

As critically important as that record is, what do you think would be an appropriate prize/reward for the lucky 100 millionth job loser?

Liberals regularly claim confidence in the President being concerned for and committed to Americans’ well-being, so perhaps he could go beyond the 5% return of income he volunteered as a gesture to show his punishing sequester plan, which inflicted 10 percent income loss for some in the public sector, while others lost jobs outright, was something he’d respond to by forfeiting a small measure of the President’s income. Obama’s $400,000 income might be useful for rewarding the 100 millionth job loser under this Administration; of course, figuring just who the individual really was who reached that remarkable plateau would be difficult. Maybe the 325,000, or so, Americans who will have lost jobs during the week from May 12th through May 18th should all be recognized. The compassionate leader the left always claims occupies the Oval Office at this point, could reward the 100 million week filers with $1.25 each to support some of the least fortunate in the economy now.

Perhaps for perspective, if Bill Gates jumped in to help the nation’s 100 million jobs losers under Obama, the entirety of his estimated 670 billion net worth could serve to compensate the displaced workers with $670.00 each, which might pay for most of a month’s rent to go along with the food stamps a record 47.8 million Americans now rely upon for survival.

What do you feel should be an appropriate reward or measure of recognition for the 100 millionth job loser this week under the Obama Administration?

Cumulative ETA counts are shown at the bottom of the Rocky Mountain Perspective pages:

http://www.rockymountainperspective.com/985-millio...

http://www.rockymountainperspective.com/real-unemp...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/02/0...

When the next Department of Labor nationwide count of registrants for unemployment who’ve suffered job losses is released, the cumulative total since January 24, 2009 will be approximately 99.9 million. The numbers are made up of strictly new claims, or what are termed first time claimants, on the DOL’s Employment and Training Administration data released each Thursday morning. Since the ETA doesn’t summarize data, other than the total quarterly employers’ payroll record figure, I’ve done that with comprehensive charts of each of the past two Presidents’ real counts to contrast questionable BLS data calculated and statistically manipulated in Seasonally Adjusted counts using modest survey results.

With roughly 30 million newly come-of-age young Americans, legal immigrants and migrants seeking jobs to support their role as hopeful, determined young adults needing income to become independent during Obama’s first term, the latest quarterly count of DOL recognized jobs from payroll data has returned somewhat from the 8.3 million lost under Obama from 2009 through the summer of 2011. It’s slowly returned to 4.67 fewer jobs than were in the economy when Obama took Office, according to ETA counts for April this year. The official workforce count from ETA records Bush handed over to Obama in January 2009 was 133,886,830. After bottoming out at 125,560,066 through April 2, 2011, then remaining flat with just 12,595 jobs added during the second calendar quarter before a marginal three-month increase of 234,728 for the third quarter to reach 125,807,389 through October 1, 2011, the nationwide workforce count remained almost 8.1 million jobs down from the numbers Obama inherited from President Bush 11 quarters into the Obama Presidency.

On the first Saturday of April this year, beginning the 18th calendar quarter of the Obama Presidency, the ETA workforce count from nationwide employers’ payroll records improved to 129,204,324. The 590,411 increase for the first three months of the year averaged just over 196,000 monthly, which slightly bettered the 166,600 average monthly increase in jobs during Obama’s final 18 months to enter the new year and a second term in Office 5.27 million jobs down at 128,613,913.

Economists have frequently argued about where in the range from 150,000 to more than 200,000 new jobs added to the economy adequately provides employment for new entrants to the workforce. I’ll address that later with data from multiple government sources, most notably the Digest of Education Statistics that keeps careful count of America’s school-age population, to show a rate suggesting 200,000 is still insufficient to provide jobs for the newcomers recognizable to the government.

Last Friday, there was rejoicing over BLS survey-based estimates suggesting 165,000 jobs were added to the economy during the month of April, but the best question might be how many of the 100 million who will have lost jobs under this Administration next week have returned to work with numbers not quite reaching the rate of ready and willing newcomers trying to find work.

Please offer your prediction for which day next week will officially top 100 million jobs lost under Obama (guesswork alone gives a 1 in 5 chance), and the more challenging math question I’d like to ask along with that, is how many of the 100 million who have lost jobs do you think have returned to work?

http://www.rockymountainperspective.com/985-millio...

By paging down, readers will find 2012-2013 ETA statistics on the linked page, while full Obama Presidency ETA counts across 217 weeks in Office, to date, can be found under the adjacent Real Unemployment tab. The commentary was written and posted on Tax Day, April 15th, 2013, but the summary chart of Americans who’ve filed for unemployment after losing jobs is current. Counts are posted through Saturday each week, with next Thursday’s release for data through Saturday May 11th about to show within a few thousand of 99.9 million jobs lost under Obama.

Since many seemed unconcerned with the 90 million jobs slashed from the economy as of the Saturday before the election, can we assume liberals and O’bots are pleased-as-punch and approaching O’gasmic ecstasy over the figure reaching 96 million Saturday, February 23rd, 2013? We hear hundreds, and occasionally, thousands of times a day how proud you are of someone most Americans recognize was elected first and foremost for his skin color, while his performance in Office is record-setting in ways that have devastated the nation’s economy.

Employment & Training Administration counts reached 95,755,000 Americans separated from employment under Obama when Thursday’s data added 362,000 new registrants for unemployment as of Saturday, February 16th. Since this Administration has yet to have a week with fewer than 300,000 new, first-time claimants register for unemployment on unadjusted counts, and 330,000 on the seasonally adjusted counts that sometimes address aberrant spikes, short weeks and surprises, the data which appears next Thursday will officially bring the cumulative count of jobs lost under Obama to around 96.1 million.

At the end of last year, in the final month of Obama’s first term, that calculated to 108,000 more jobs lost on average for each week of the Obama Presidency in comparison to real workforce counts from the ETA under George Bush at the same point 205 weeks into his second term. For months with 31 days in them, the figure was 497,000 more jobs lost on average than ended under Obama’s predecessor. That rounds nicely enough to a half million more jobs lost monthly under Obama than under George Bush across your main man’s economy killing, workforce destroying policies. To have voted for him again, admittedly, the percentage was fractionally below 51%, shocking numbers of the electorate contradicted what every network reported said was claimed by voters in exit polls. Americans indicated jobs and the economy were their greatest concern and issues numbers one and two for who they voted for.

When George Bush left Office, the workforce was 133,886,830, according to employers’ payroll records nationwide. Given the weight of such figures and importance of a nationwide count, as opposed to the limited survey-based predictive data released by the BLS, the cumulative count of workers shown in the furthest right-hand column on the ETA site is adjusted on a quarterly basis. The latest count of verified workers on payroll records for the first quarter of 2013 is 128,613,913, which remains 5.25 million down from the day Obama took Office 49 months ago. With somewhere in the range of 27-30 million new workers who’ve sought to enter the workforce during the past four years from the ranks of our college, secondary and trade school graduates, LPR’s awarded green cards, H1B visa newcomers and asylees, GED earners and tougher to count dropouts, as well as illegal alien newcomers waltzing across our Southern Border in the millions, according to internal ICE documents and Agents’ admissions, what kind of percentage of the 96 million Americans separated from jobs do you think have returned at this point?

There’s no coincidence about tax revenues flagging when unemployment skyrockets, and there hasn’t been an economy remotely like what we’ve face under Obama since the Great Depression. There’s considerable evidence supportive of the recession having never ended, and by some counts a Depression having lingered that the liberal media seem determined to protect Americans from recognizing head-on. Consider reading the article from Peter Ferrera for a range of factors that he writes about in an article entitled “The Worst Five Years Since the Great Depression.”

A link to summary data from the ETA is included, and an Xcel chart of figures found by paging down under the Real Unemployment tab shows cumulative counts that are nowhere to be found with the Department of Labor’s ETA division. While their weekly counts of job losses are gathered directly from employment offices handling unemployment claims with each of the nation’s 50 states, together with actual employers’ payroll record figures, the ETA counts are more meaningful and far superior to the estimates and statistically manipulated data offered by the BLS after survey responses are gathered. Former BLS Commissioner John Hall and Rick Manning, a Department of Labor Chief of Staff for nearly a decade, called the figures deeply flawed last fall when millions were slashed from the ranks of the unemployed with only a fraction of their numbers securing jobs. In fact, with modest job growth of about 165,000 monthly for two quarters when 3.5 million were dropped from marginally attached and long-term unemployed counts last year, the increase was on the low end of what most economists recognize as necessary to include the ready newcomers and come-of-age workers into the economy.

Employment figures discussed in the media and on Y!A mostly use Bureau of Labor Statistics’ survey-based estimates. Since the Department of Labor also keeps real, comprehensive counts through the Employment & Training Administration, those are the figures I’ll refer to and ask about here.

My last question asked an over/under scenario for numbers of Americans separated from jobs since the fourth week of January 2009, and this one asks just a slightly different version. With roughly 94.5 million once gainfully employed having registered with employment offices across the country for unemployment assistance before Obama’s second term inauguration, a reasonable follow-up question is when the 100th million American worker will be displaced from his or her job under the Obama Administration. Keep in mind, the pace of job loss at the end of 2012 increased from the comparable eight week period in 2011, and the months of November and December combined first-time claimant counts at 3,885,105 exceeded ugly 2010 numbers, which showed 3,838,689 new registrants for unemployment claims. Generous reports of economic recovery were more progressive fodder for election season deception than reality, and support through a determined liberal media exhibited machinations of uncaring, disaffected leftists who had no intention of identifying the actual state of the economy for a public that knew it wasn’t good.

Keep in mind, the last Saturday figure reported by the Employment and Training Administration for 2012, on December 29th, showed 93,275,000 fist-time claimants across the President’s 47 months in Office, and that cumulative number of new claimants exceeded George Bush’s second term numbers by more than 22 million. Over the same 205 week period, that figured to almost 108,000 more Americans losing jobs for each of Obama’s weeks in Office and 497,000 more claims for unemployment for each month with 31 days in them under Obama’s Presidency than were recorded by displaced workers under his predecessor. That seems to round nicely to a half million more jobs lost, on average, across each of Obama’s 47 months in Office by year’s end. And the rate of jobs lost has accelerated over prior years, according to recent ETA data.

Most acknowledge over/under betting’s popularity, including statisticians who pride themselves in estimates based upon recognizable mathematics progressions in numbers. Ahead of the heaviest two-week betting period in sports leading up to the Super Bowl, this version of an over/under scenario that effects the nation’s economy so deeply, and most significantly, upwards of 100 million Americans forced into a struggle for survival few could have imagined, lends itself to a natural question for gamblers and mathematicians, alike.

Will the Obama Administration’s jobs purge and hurting workforce top 100 million displaced workers from employment before or after the nation’s traditional April 15th tax day?

A few additional observations, in case the data might help:

The past two weeks added more than 1.1 million new registrants for unemployment, with non-seasonally-adjusted counts of 553,348, hiked upward for the Saturday, January 5th count in last Thursday’s release, while the January 12, 2013 count presented as part of the ETA’s advance data was 555,708 before the inevitable adjustment raises that count, as well, in coming weeks.

Keep in mind, the seven million jobs added to the economy under Obama’s predecessor, which turned over a workforce of 133,886,830, has finally returned slightly from the 8.3 million verified jobs slashed under this Administration, according to employers’ payroll record counts showing 125,572,661 through the end of the second calendar quarter in 2011. Year-end ETA counts for 2012 now show 5.8 million fewer jobs than appeared on employers’ payroll counts under Bush at 128,066,082. Newly come-of-age college, secondary, and trade school graduates, along with immigrant and undocumented (illegal) migrant workers have added 27-30 million hopeful job seekers looking for an independent adult life during Obama’s first term, so the reality of a shrunken workforce is especially harsh for displaced workers and the nation’s young.

Since the left and, apparently, a smattering of low information independent voters felt unconcerned about fellow citizens desperate for jobs, as evidenced by 51 percent support for more of the same in the November Presidential election, it’s natural to wonder why voters were okay with the cruel economy that’s left tens of millions of Americans behind.

http://www.rockymountainperspective.com/real-unemp...

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current....

Employment figures discussed in the media and here on Y!A mostly use Bureau of Labor Statistics’ survey-based estimates. Since the Department of Labor also keeps real, comprehensive counts through the Employment & Training Administration, those are the figures I’ll refer to and ask about here.

By the final Saturday of 2012, a cumulative count of newly registered first-time claimants with all 50 states’ employment offices across the country reached 93,275,000, according to ETA records. The final eight weeks of 2012 recorded a total verified count of 3,523,305 non-seasonally-adjusted new claimants, which exceeded the comparable period during 2011 at 3,461,793 jobs lost at year’s end. Perhaps, more telling, the combined count for November and December 2012 came in at 3,885,105, which exceeded the two-month year-end total of 3,838,689 jobs lost in 2010 during a time all were questioning when recovery might begin. No one seemed deluded enough to suggest the economy’s ugly contracting workforce in 2010 was in recovery, but the final two months of 2010 recorded fewer new first-time claimants for unemployment after job losses than our latest November-December count.

The past two weeks added more than 1.1 million new registrants for unemployment, with non-seasonally-adjusted counts of 553,348, hiked upward for the Saturday, January 5th count in Thursday’s release, while the January 12, 2013 count was presented as part of the ETA’s advance data at 555,708 before the inevitable adjustment raises that count, as well, in coming weeks.

With one more Saturday report yet to be included for President Obama’s first term total of American workers separated from employment, my question is for those curious about the nation’s employment situation, mathematicians, statisticians, and perhaps gamblers who gravitate toward over-under numbers for their speculation of an outcome. We topped 94 million once gainfully employed workers purged from jobs under Obama’s crippled economy in the first hour of Monday’s employment activity, and at the current rate we’ll reach about 94.5 million, midway between 94 and 95 million Americans separated from jobs before a second term begins.

What’s your take on the over-under gamble on this one? Will Obama’s job shrinkage end closer to 94 million Americans whose jobs were slashed or 95 million heading into his coronation, some still deign to regard as just another ordinary inauguration.

If it helps with your estimates and calculations, keep in mind the seven million jobs added to the economy under Obama’s predecessor, which turned over a workforce of 133,886,830, has come back slightly from the 8.3 million jobs slashed under this Administration, according to employers’ payroll record counts showing 125,572,661 at the end of the second calendar quarter in 2011, to 5.8 million fewer jobs than appeared on employers’ payroll counts under Bush during the latest, year-end calendar quarter of 2012 at 128,066,082.

With over 22 million more jobs slashed from the economy under Obama than under President Bush in his second term for the same 205 weeks in Office at the end of December, the difference showed almost 108,000 fewer jobs lost on average under Bush across each of the Presidents’ 205 weeks in Office. On a monthly basis, the 497,000 fewer jobs lost during months with 31 days each while Bush was in Office during the identical 47-plus months period can easily be rounded to a half million.

Since the left and, perhaps, a smattering of low information independent voters felt unconcerned about fellow citizens desperate for jobs and restoration to independent adult living many had grown accustomed to, it’s natural to wonder why voters were okay with the cruel economy that’s left tens of millions of Americans behind.

What’s your best estimate on final Obama jobs loss numbers? Will the ETA actual counts from states unemployment offices nationwide be closer to 94 or 95 million?

A bonus question is why would anyone feel such failure and ugly contraction of the workforce was okay during Obama’s first term and necessary to inflict on one’s neighbors and fellow citizens for another four years?

http://www.rockymountainperspective.com/real-unemp...

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current....

While the question asks whether this Administration will reach 95 million Americans separated from employment ahead of the inauguration, Obama’s moribund economy is on pace to reach 100 million displaced workers by early spring. The half million more jobs lost during each of Obama's months in Office than were lost under Bush, at this point, is a far cry from recovery.