Jeff Engr

Friday FUNNY.

I saw this and realized that there were hidden benefits to out of control AGW. Why didn't they tell us this earlier? !?!?!?

Is it a conspiracy to stop of from seeking positive outcomes?

I would have fought hard and done everything possible to accelerate it!!!!

http://wtop.com/884/3623052/District-under-water-N...

A new study show possible links between lightning and solar winds.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/5/055004/art...

So if solar winds have this level of direct effect on weather patterns to directly impact the frequency and presumably the intensity of lighting, then how can you say that changes in solar output, not TSI, do not impact climatic shifts on earth?

I just read a very interesting article that makes some very interesting points.

1. CH4 is a very powerful GHG when taken in isolation. well known and very much discussed on this site.

2. CH4 is irrelevant in the real world earth atmosphere. Due to the fact that its absorption bands for light are within the absorption bands of water vapor. given that water vapor is a much larger part of our atmosphere the GHG impact of CH4 is irrelevant.

Of course #2 would have to assume that the ppm for CH4 in the atmosphere remains very small in comparison to water vapor.

I find this concept very interesting. Does anyone have any non-political data sources that might demonstrate errors in this idea?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/11/methane-the-...

I found this dated back in June of 2011.

http://www.manbam.com/joe-bastardi-weather-2014.ht...

So, why do AGW alarmists say we should dismiss anyhting from Joe Bastardi out of hand if he can get this stuff right years in advance when the AGW models don't even get close?

My guess is policy will lag quite some time until said policy starts to cost them too many elections. Polictical power is everything to them. More taxes = more power...

http://nypost.com/2013/12/05/global-warming-proof-...

Anew study showing that the sun and variations in solar magnetic field strength that are SOLEY responsible for variations in earths climate patterns.

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10...

Now that true science is catching up to this topic, how long before the alarmists acknowledge that science does not support their position?

I understand and realize that those who have adopted this, AGW, as a near religeon can not be diswayed. But I hold out hpope that at least some alarmist truely do care about the truth and science.

Solar Cycle 24 is pettering out.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html

September is trending significantly lower that August which is where teh attached charts stops.

This study demonstrates how Cylcle 24 will be dead - i.e. zero sunspots by 2015.

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09...

These three studies confirm the Variable Solar Dyanmo Study.

From: National solar Observatory, Jet propulsion Laboratory, and the Air force Research Lab.

http://www.space.com/11960-fading-sunspots-slower-...

So, given we had predictions and Cycle 24 is folloing the predicted trend. Knowing that cycle 25 is projected to be weaker, possible far weaker than 24 or possibly non-existent, will this resolve the issue of what forces are more powerful. Man caused CO2 or Nature?

I FEAR the answer will be yes. What are your thoughts?

The sunspot count for today, September 10, 2013 is a measly 13. We are supposed to be at or nearly solar max for cycle 24.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

DeJager and DuHau projected no sunspots would be possible by 2015 due to the sun more or less going to sleep. Note also that the soalr wind and EMF/IMF are also VERY weak for where we are supposed to be in this cycle.

If the sun is slowing down this fast, first will it continue and does anyone know where the bottom might be? Some projections are this will last at least to 2030 and perhaps longer. How significantly will this impact our climate?

Dr. Lindzen with the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons has come out with what I find to be a very interesting and inforamtive article. He likens the current political environment around Climate Science to the eugenics and Lysenkoism.

In consequence, he writes, “A profound dumbing down of the discussion…interacts with the ascendancy of incompetents.” Prizes and accolades are awarded for politically correct statements, even if they defy logic. “Unfortunately, this also often induces better scientists to join the pack in order to preserve their status,” Lindzen adds.

http://www.jpands.org/vol18no3/lindzen.pdf

So, do you beleive as Lindzen does, that Climate Scinece has been coopted for political reasons?

I do not remember the names of the three new comets. One will be the brightest comet we have ever seem and will pass at its brightest around November. A second one is coming around the same time and now a third could possibly impact Mars in October. All three comets are "Virgins" meaning they have to our knowledge never been to the inner solar system before.

Knowing that current theory states that all comets originate in either the Keiper or Ort belts and that all 3 of these must have come in from out there. Should we worry that whatever caused these three to come in also sent other objects we have yet to identify? Something happened out there to cause this.

One is interesting. Two is a coincidence (although I do not believe in coincidence) but three is generally something else...

If you have any comments ideas or information it would be greatly appreciated.

NASA released a new paper on January 8, 2013.

From the paper.

There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate.

The paper is very detailed and well defined. How much do you beleive it will impact the debate on the impact of CO2 to AGW?

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-na...

I saw this and the numbers looked to be MUCH more significant than I would have imagined. Enough so that I want to post here and ask a question. What do you think? I have not checked the math, but Dr. Roy Spencer is well educated in this field so I am inclined to believe he did not make a significant error.

What do you think? Waste heat could account for as much a 0.33 w/square meter for CONUS (continental US). This is 20.6% of what solar forcing is. If this impact is true then I would think the overall impact would be tremendous!

What are your thoughts?

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Solar Cycle 24 is decaying about a year ahead of schedule. In fact the Northern Pole of the sun has already reversed polarity and is out of sync with the southern pole. (not entirely unprecedented but not entirely common either)

If you review the last 8 months of sunspot data it appears that the cycle is starting to decay. See Graph from NASA here.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

Given the predictions from DeJager and Duhau

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09...

What do you believe the implications of the early decay of this solar cycle will be?

i.e. from their paper (paraphrase) EM flux strength will be unable to form ANY sunspots after 2015 if trend does not reverse.

New coming out today proves two things.

1. Obama knew within 2 hours of the attack that it was terrorists and NOT a spontaneous eruption because of a protest about a youtube video.

2. The attack leasted a total of 7 hours. Two of the four dead Americns died in the 7th hour.

3. The US did NOTHING about this issue during this 7 hours to attempt to help our people or save the US Abassador to Libya.

With two dead american officials and wilfully taking NO ACTION to help or save them this can qualify as a misdemenor at best and a high crime at worse.

Lying about what happened and why for 2 weeks and covering up what happened why and what was done about it is also bad.

The US had a drone ON-SITE and the White House ready room was watching the attack LIVE. Saying they did not know is now known to be another LIE.

US drones are often armed, was this one? IF not why not? Is so why didn't we use it to defend our people and the US Ambasador?

US Troops are based in Italy, 1 hour away from Bengazi. Why was not a rapid response team mobilized and send to Bengazi?

The US has an aircraft carrier task force in the Mediteranean. You know, those ships that planes land on and take off from? Why didn't we use it?

We are learning more everyday about this. Looks to me that this will be a repeat of Nixon if Obama is re-elected. Likelyhood of impeachment in his second term appears to be high. Should this occur, the Democratic party will be shatered for a decade or so just like the Republicans were after Watergate.

So, will Obama be Impeached? If so how many Democrat political careers will be destroyed? (Hilary Clinton, ambasador Rice of the UN etc.)

A Carrington event lasting as little as 2 days, could drive earth climate to cool by 3 - 5 degrees K which would persists for months.

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/8679/2012/acp-12...

So now we have TSI, Geomagnetic field variations, sunspot activity, and now Carrington events among the growing list of variables in how changes on solar activity impact Earth Climate. Will the IPCC and other warmists finally begin to give the sun its due?

At this time, solar models predict that Solar Cycle 24 is supposed to peak in 2013 and then drop to very low levels for an even more enemic solar cycle 25.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html

September, nearly 2/3 done now is trending equal to or lower than August. This shape seems to suggest that we may be closer to having reached the cycle peak. With well known correlation between these solar cycles, both by intensity of the solar cycle and the specific length of a solar cycle (We will not know how long cycle 24 will be until several years from now. Modela for this vary quite a bit right now. The transition between cycle 24 and Cycle 25 will occur when the poles shift and the new sunspots for Cycle 25 begin to appear (magnatic polarity and sturcture flips).

So if cycle 24 it now hitting or has already hit its peak, as anmemic as it is/was, what will this mean for the future climate trends? Most solar physicists say it portents a meaningful cooling trend...

This paper documents that we are just now coming out the a Soalr Garnd Maxima. It also charts out solar activity going back severl centuries. Seems to match the variability of climate in the same time period. What are your thoughts? Does science impact your beliefs on AGW?

http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/lrsp-2008-3Col...

Looking at the empirical data it appears to be irrifutable to me.

What do you think?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/6/glo...

The last solar Grand minimum was in the 17th century and is known as the Maunder Minimum.

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09...

If we enter a New Grand Minimum, due to infrequent events we currently know little about specific impacts and can only use proxies and past trending for projections, What do you believe will occur to the global climate on Earth.

Nearly all scientists agree this will mean cooling. There are areguement/debates on how impactful or extreme this could be. Some argue little cooling that will be mostly or wholly negated by AGW. some argue possible dramatic cooling even to the point of a possible onset of the next ice age.

If the Grand Minimum does come to pass as this paper seek to suggest we are still not sure how deep or long it will last. The Maunder Minimum lasted for more than a century. I am quite sure that the exact impact of this Grand Minimum owuld depend on how deep and long the grand Solar Minimum is.

the quesiton is, how impactful do you beleive this will be?