De Jager and DuHau have published a new solar paper. New solar GRAND minimum coming. What is climate impact?

Question

The last solar Grand minimum was in the 17th century and is known as the Maunder Minimum.  

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/2012-sudden-trans-JSWSC-2-A073.pdf

If we enter a New Grand Minimum, due to infrequent events we currently know little about specific impacts and can only use proxies and past trending for projections, What do you believe will occur to the global climate on Earth.  

Nearly all scientists agree this will mean cooling.  There are areguement/debates on how impactful or extreme this could be.  Some argue little cooling that will be mostly or wholly negated by AGW.  some argue possible dramatic cooling even to the point of a possible onset of the next ice age.  

If the Grand Minimum does come to pass as this paper seek to suggest we are still not sure how deep or long it will last.  The Maunder Minimum lasted for more than a century.  I am quite sure that the exact impact of this Grand Minimum owuld depend on how deep and long the grand Solar Minimum is.

the quesiton is, how impactful do you beleive this will be?

Baccheus · Accepted Answer

Even a solar minimum as deep and the Maunder Minimum will have only a fraction of the effect of increasing CO2.  At most, such a Grand Event will offset warming by only -0.3 degrees by 2100.  At the current warming trend, temperatures will have increased by 1 to 1.6 degrees by then.  The effects of solar activity is weak relative to the effects of the composition of the atmosphere.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010GL042710.shtml

An event comparable to the Dalton Minimum will have a much smaller offset.  Even if we were so fortunate to have such an astrological event the effect will be minor and temporary.  And even that small offset of warming will occur mostly during days where as CO2 is causing warming mostly at night.  A solar minimum will do nothing for the rising nighttime lows.

Gringo · Answer

How come deniers often demand climate science to be conducted in a proper manner (as if that currently is not the case) yet cannot be bothered (or so it seems) to run a simple spell-check?

<<The quesiton [..] however still remains, how impactful do you bleeive [sigh] this will be?>>

Impactful on who? On deniers and self-proclaimed experts or on real climate scientists?

On neither category it will have much influence IMO: climate scientists already know that the sun's recent activity is down while warming is up and deniers will simply ignore science which does not support their idiotic arguments. At first some will post pseudo-intelligent questions about it on internet fora to make it appear they know what they are talking about (when the opposite is true) but after that it will rapidly fade away.

Hey Dook · Answer

I "beleive" you copied this from an anti-science blog. Won't you tell us which one?

Edit: You can't write English at a 7th grade level, Jeff, and we are supposed to believe (note the correct spelling of that word at least) that you are reading and understanding two year old articles from specialist journals in science?

Stardust · Answer

Its true we head into warming and cooling periods. We are now in a warming period that occurs every 100,000 years but we will soon be in a cooling period around 5,000 years from now.

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De Jager and DuHau have published a new solar paper. New solar GRAND minimum coming. What is climate impact?

4 Answers