Any bets how long the pause will last?

It doesn't appear, based on the actual scientific evidence, that CO2 plays much of a role in controlling temperatures. Alarmists like to contort logic and facts to show it does but that just shows they aren't really interested in science except when they can use it to push their cause. When it stops warming, the warming must have suddenly eaten by the ocean. It warmed in the last hundred years and so just betting on momentum, I wouldn't be surprised if it continues but then again it seems to have paused and that pause may be the prelude to a drop which would be much worse than warming.

C will say there is no pause no matter how long there is a pause.

The pause could last up to the 2030s or 2040s. I base this on a post at RealClimate that suggested as much. They were hedging their bets and wanted a talking point that people like C could point to, because according to that post, after the pause, global warming would come back stronger than exer.

Most projections I am seeing say the "pause" will last at least until 2030. This is based on the solar cycle and the fact that we are entering what is called a Grand Solar Minema.

However given that a number of solar indices are dropping below levels we once thought possible, the 2030 projects ALL have caveats. Basically the 2030 date is based on fitting curves from previous cycles and does not take into account what may or may NOT be happening to drive these indices so low.

Quoting one solar physicist. "Perhaps what we have seen in the past was the abnormality and what we are seeing developing is the true normal"

We just do not yet have enough data to say for sure.

Not long enough to be significant in a statistical sense.

I'll give it until the next El Nino, or 5 years, which ever comes first.

"I think it will be a long time myself (barring any drastic upwards adjustments of present temps and downward adjustments of past temps) but temperatures will eventually creep up due to the extra man made CO2 in the atmosphere."

First, show the observational evidence that there is a "pause" that is happening now.

Second, forget the temperature data. What is happening to nearly all of the ice formations on this planet? Do they indicate a cooling trend or even a "pause" in the warming trend?

Third, the last part of the sentence, "... but temperatures will eventually creep up due to the extra man made CO2 in the atmosphere." is a recognition by you that you do understand that our adding tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere will have a warming effect on our climate. Yet you continuously post dribble as if you did not already know this.

Ahmed. This is a Global Warming site. Not a blow up a building site or a kill innocent people site. You obviously have your terrorist tactics confused.

In direct answer to the question: It all depends on the Sun. I am not wise enough to make book on the Sun.

And Ian, you may call CO2 anything you want but it does not control the temperature. The temperature of the earth is in pause, or actually declining somewhat, but the CO2 level keeps climbing. There is no correlation.

Ian: I know. But it seems like you were saying it. You know how literal the greenies can get with our statements and ambiguous with their own.

It will continue to cool for however long solar activity remains below normal. We are currently past the peak of solar cycle 24, solar cycle 25 has been predicted to be even smaller than the current one.

And you don't have to worry about temperatures 'creeping up' because of man-made CO2, when the ocean cool sufficiently CO2 levels will decline.

Besides, CO2 does not and cannot drive temperature in the first place. More than 95% of the Greenhouse Effect is caused by water vapor and about 97% of all CO2 in the air is NATURAL, not man-made. Do the math.

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Here's a quickie. Check the CO2 levels a couple of weeks ago and now that the volcano has erupted in Indonesia this past week. See if that alone can end this death grip of a cold spell North America is having right now, as we speak and warm us up a bit, getting rid of all this massive ice and snow that's killing everybody. I suppose that volcano is all man made, and we can touch base with Al Gore to verify that.

The (nonexistent) pause will probably last for decades, barring an occasional uptick from El Nino's, which I don't expect will be big or common as it is my belief that El Nino's are mainly powered by the sun.

When we next get a positive PDO and AMO together with sunspot activity then there will be a surge in warming.

Well the reality of no pause just doesn't get through your thick skull so jist keep deluding yourself until reality sinks in