What's the longest anyone thinks the global warming pause will last?

People used to talk about a 60 year cycle.

Tha attached graph shows what has happened in the recent past. We have had a flattish to downwards period followed by a pronounced increase. This seems to repeat after 6 or 7 decades. The previous decline was from about 1940 to about 1977. Why not the same again?

EDIT @Jeff M: Thank you for the info but I think I am ahead of you. Please see one of my earlier answers:

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=201402...

If you add a constant to the PDO index then integrate the results can be scaled to give a good fit with HADCRUT4.

EDIT @CR "Actually, no. " Er, actually yes! If you look at the graph in my linked answer you can see what happens if you read the PDO data into Excel, add a constant and cusum it and scale it. I have overlaid it on the HADCRUT4 data. The fit looks good to me.

“In God we trust; all others bring data.”

W Edwards Deming.

An alarmist will always say, "soon." Also a tipping point is coming. If we don't do something in the next five years...

More rational mind recognized the pause in 2008, while alarmists continued to "deny" global temperatures had leveled off. Some of the hard cores completely ignore 15 years of hard data (not models) and insist the earth is still warming. If there ever was somebody who deserved the label "denier," there it is.

The pause will last 30 years or so. That's not my opinion, but the opinion of several noted climate scientists who got it right years before the rest of the climate community. The PDO shifted into the cool phase in the year 2000 and will stay there until about 2030. By that time, the global warming scare will be just another failed doomsday scenario. I'll include a link for those who want to read more.

For some reason I don't think the El Nino possibly coming later this year will increase temperatures over the 1998 baseline in the satellite data, as that is, of course, where you are taking your 'pause' from. My guess is possibly the next one after this one will increase it past 1998. This will probably be in about another 5 years or so, possibly 10, or when the PDO switches to an ongoing positive phase. The PDO is linked to the ENSO cycle. If we look at this cycle we see the, in the beginning point of your graph, there is rather powerful El Nino episodes and in the end point of your graph there is rather powerful La Nina episodes.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

http://cses.washington.edu/cig/pnwc/compensopdo.sh...

FG56...: The last chart in the graph indicates temperature adjustments stopped in the late 1980s. Looking at NCDC we see that most of the increase occurred after temperature adjustments flat-lined. Or at least half.

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/hazards/201...

GraphicConception: With your question "Why not the same again?" you are taking stab in the dark. You'll have to first find the cause of the evolution in temperatures and find where that cause is now and where it is heading. Here is the cause: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/img/pdo_latest.jpe...

We need to look at some PDO climate forecasting to find when the 'pause' will stop. Here are some links to help.

http://pajk.arh.noaa.gov/info/MacDonald_Case_2005....

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~rennert/etc/cours...

http://www.pnas.org/content/107/5/1833.full

AMOC, as emphasized in the last link above, may also play a substantial role. Though we have a rather good handle on the energy balance of the planet the amount of internal variability due to such things as ocean cycles are less sure. This is where the 'pause' originated from. Of course there are other smaller factors at work too such as the Asian Brown Cloud and declining solar output, however the major contributor to the slowdown are oceanic oscillations.

And I'm sure someone will bring up the medieval warm period or little ice age when solar input did, in fact, play large roles. If solar input continues to follow the input that occurred during the little ice age there will, of course, be less solar forcing and temperatures will be cooler than if solar input was stable. However you should also be aware that there was more than just solar forcing at work during both the MWP and LIA.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shar...

You start the ice caps melting, that throws a lot of cold water into the oceans which of course will cool them down. Till recently we've just been warming up the ice and not getting a lot of melt ( takes more heat to melt ice than it does to raise its temp or the temp of water). Greenland had a melt over the entire surface for the first time in recorded history last year. As the ice caps diminish the rate of warming will again increase in most areas. I'd guess 5-15 years at the longest for a pause.

At this point excess retained heat continues to move steadily into the world's oceans and ice packs at close to the rate of retained solar energy. Atmospheric heat doesn't stay in the atmosphere as it tends to migrate easily to a more dense, colder venue such as water and ice. Once a balance is reached the atmospheric temperatures will remain at a steady state. Meanwhile though atmospheric temperatures may or may not have moderated the data shows that the 'effect' of greater atmospheric retained heat energy goes on. The oceans are getting more acidic and warmer, and more of the artic ice pack is thinning. Ice at higher elevations may grow deeper as evaporation from the oceans contribute to a more moist atmosphere. At higher elevations, such as in the high mountains at the South Pole more ice seems to be accumulating because the temperatures at higher elevations tend to be well below freezing the year around. (The difference between 80 below zero and 81 degrees below zero makes no difference to the formation of ice.)

I tend to agree with Jeff M because oceans temperatures have not recharged from the heat lost during the 1997-98 El Nino event. Once we experience another cycle of rapid ocean-to-atmosphere heat transfer like that which occurred in 1997-98, we will have a better understanding of the process.

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Fg56Jker34 ----

>>Hey, Realist, that last chart in your link is pretty damning, eh?<<

How so? What is incorrect? What adjustment ever applied to any climate data has ever resulted in a biased (not to be confused with debiased) dataset?

Scientific methods and knowledge are not (fortunately) based on your individual scientific illiteracy and ignorance. If you have an informed objection that you can demonstrate either mathematically or by showing that there are more well-established, widely-accepted, and time-tested techniques than those used then provide that information. Otherwise, be thankful that public displays of stupidity and lying are not crimes.

Every year since 2011 was warmer than the last

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2011...

It looks like the pause is over.

< I think a lot, if not most, of any supposed global warming is due to temperature adjustments of cooling the past and warming the present.>

How about doing a google search and find out why they are making such adjustments, rather than just reading that they do in denialist blogs.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn...

I agree with Kano that how much effect the Sun has will effect the length of the pause. But where did he get 50 years from? Even if he could predict a Maunder Minimum, it would only have a slight effect on global warming.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/heading-into-new-l...

Assuming neither el Ninos or volcanoes, if the Sun has a strong effect, the pause would continue either until Sunspot cycle 25 is under way or for the first decade of a Maunder Minimum.

Jeff M

< The last chart in the graph indicates temperature adjustments stopped in the late 1980s>

Even though the magnitude of the adjustments has shown a decreasing trend, they are still large enough for NASAs Y2K bug to have shown a significant impact even after 2000.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/1934-hottest-year-...

graphicconception

<If you add a constant to the PDO index then integrate the results can be scaled to give a good fit with HADCRUT4.>

Actually, no. Since 1900 the PDO index shows a slight decrease. HADCRUT4 shows a clear increase since 1900

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1...

It all depends on how much effect the sun has, If it has a significant effect I do not expect any warming until at least year 2050 and possibly longer, some cooling is also possible, we should know in the next decade.

I cant wait to see what the IPPC will say in it's next report if we have no warming.

I completely agree. What would climate scientists know. My family want me to urgently see a doctor because I'm bleeding from my bowl. I don't think there is anything wrong, it's just that I ate my steak rare last week.

"Pause"?

The temperature trend has reversed. It's getting cooler.

Hey, Realist, that last chart in your link is pretty damning, eh?